Let’s go back to the data of the currency market itself. Although BTC has experienced two ups and downs in the past two weeks, long-term BTC holdings of more than five months have not been reduced due to changes in sentiment. Instead, they are continuing to increase. It can be clearly seen from the trend chart that it is still in a stage of rapid growth. This means that BTC holders before April this year still have no plans to leave the market. This data is consistent with our judgment in the past two months. Currently, there are more than 14.73 million BTC whose addresses have not changed in 155 days, accounting for 75.63% of the total circulation. More holders still aim to hold for the long term. The shortest estimate is to bet on the Fed’s suspension of interest rate hikes.
In addition, from the perspective of the accumulation of single chips, as the price retreats, the accumulation between $29,000 and $30,000 is gradually decreasing, but the rate of decrease is still very slow. On the positive side, it may be that many investors intend to hold for the long term and do not care about short-term price changes. For example, Micro Strategy, which just celebrated its overall profitability some time ago, has now returned to a loss-making state, and it is estimated that the third quarter financial report will not look good. On the negative side, it is not ruled out that some investors are still betting that BTC can rebound in the short term, or even unwilling to cut their losses and leave the market, so there is still a lot of accumulation, which may not have much impact at present, but may encounter resistance from selling pressure when prices rise.
The current accumulation is still a safe line, but as we said before, $26,000 will be more attractive, which means that the accumulation of chips at a single price of $26,000 may reach the pressure line of 1.1 million BTC faster, especially now that the total accumulation of $25,500 and $26,000 has exceeded 1.1 million BTC. Although there is no problem now, if it continues to accumulate and negative news is added, the collapse of $29,000 due to an expired news is the best example. So for many friends who are bottom-fishing, if you think that $26,000 must be the bottom, you still need to be cautious.
It is true that $26,000 is a good support, but it does not mean that it will not fall. If the SEC rejects BlackRock's ETF now, or the Fed raises interest rates in September and improves the dot plot, the price of BTC may fall below $26,000. The same is true in reverse. If the SEC suddenly announces that it has approved Grayscale or BlackRock's BTC spot ETF application, or the Fed directly announces a suspension of interest rate hikes in September, it will also have a positive impact on the price. This is because the current narrative of BTC and ETH does not rely on themselves, but depends on external conditions. This is also one of the reasons for the continuous decline in liquidity.
