As of 4:00 a.m. on July 14, according to statistics from ichainfo, an on-chain data service provider, the remaining BTC balance in the German government’s wallet address was $265.57. All 50,000 BTC confiscated by the government have been sold. The German government’s Bitcoin sell-off has come to an end. Here we make a brief review and analysis.
Figure 1: The remaining BTC holdings of the German government address (ichainfo statistics address: https://search.ichainfo.com/bitcoin/address/bc1qq0l4jgg9rcm3puhhfwaz4c9t8hdee8hfz6738z#activity)
First, let’s review the German government’s bitcoin sales since the start of sales on June 19. In June, it first sold tentatively, causing market panic, and then began to sell in large quantities on July 8, as shown in the following chart:
Further analysis of the Bitcoin channels sold is shown in the following chart:
BTC Sales Channels
BTC Sales Amount
B2C2 Group(139Po****)
23828
Flow Traders
12582
Cumberland DRW
1029
Bitstamp
5400
Coinbase
5500
Kraken
5508
bc1qu3jd****
3445
The total number of bitcoins sold through the above channels exceeded 50,000 because some of the bitcoins sold through Bitstamp, Kraken, and Coinbase exchanges were not sold in time and returned to the German government's package address.
The sale started on June 19 and 20 through Bitstamp, Kraken, and Coinbase exchanges. Due to the large quantity, the transaction time of direct retail sales from the exchange was slow. Probably due to security management requirements, on the 26th, market maker Flow Traders was found to provide coin selling services. As of July 11, 12,582 bitcoins were sold through Flow Traders.
Figure 2: The German government sold the quantity through the service provider Flow Traders
At the same time, Flow Traders, including Cumberland DRW and B2C2 Group, are also one of the liquidity service providers for the US Bitcoin ETF. On that day, the currency transferred by the German government stayed briefly in the wallet of the service provider and then began to be transferred to the wallet addresses of Bitcoin ETFs such as Fidelity FBTC. In addition, because B2C2 Group uses too many vest addresses, the destination of funds is very scattered, and it is impossible to accurately count the actual flow. Tracking found that there are also flows to the addresses of ETF market makers Winter Mute and Flow Traders.
Figure 3: Flow Traders sell BTC to FBTC
Figure 4: One of the B2C2 Group’s fake addresses
After the German government stepped up its selling this week, comparing the inflow and outflow data of the US BTC spot ETF, the net inflow of the ETF took over most of the German government's selling, thus reducing the direct impact on the market:
In summary, let's review the timing of the German government's sale and its impact on the market:
1. Starting from June 19, the German government's sales incident continued to ferment. After about 2 weeks, the shorts began to attack on July 2, and the Bitcoin ETF had almost no subscription for two consecutive days. On July 4, when the ETF trading was closed for the US Independence Day, the shorts launched a full-scale general attack, which led to a huge drop in the market. The altcoins were bleeding, and the market sentiment index reached a panic state of 26. The accumulated liquidation of long and short positions in three days was about 1 billion US dollars. Then on July 5, the price rebounded and the ETF returned to net inflow from net outflow.
2. The German government’s coin selling service providers, B2C2 Group, FlowTraders, Cumberland DRW, Wintermute, and several other market makers, are also IBIT/FBTC’s coin buying service providers. Starting from July 8 this week, the net inflow of IBIT/FBTC’s ETF almost took over most of the German government’s selling. The ETF entered at a cost price between 56,000 and 58,000, successfully protecting the market.
3. Although the German government's coin selling event is coming to an end, there are still many details to be discovered. This time, the market crash and support will be written into the classic trading cases of the cryptocurrency market, and it is not ruled out that the subsequent MT.GOX event will repeat similar tactics. The German government sold 50,000 coins this time, which has lasted for 3 weeks. The number of coins held in the MT.GOX event exceeded 140,000. It is estimated that the selling time will be more than 1 month. I believe that the market has more time and space to complete the exchange of long and short chips. This reminds people of the story of the big short Livermore telling the market making of U.S. Steel stocks in "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator". Some people have made a lot of money and left, while others are still waiting. Ask Mr. Livermore, "When will the price return to 70,000?"
文：Sean from search.ichainfo.com
原文鏈接：Review and analysis of the impact of the German government’s sale of BTC
