The cryptocurrency market, led by Bitcoin, is characterized by extreme volatility and speculation.
Over the past decade, Bitcoin has grown from a niche digital asset to a mainstream financial instrument, attracting institutional investors and retail traders alike.
As of the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has risen by more than 2%, breaking through the $60,000 mark.
Despite Bitcoin’s growing acceptance, its price remains highly sensitive to market sentiment, macroeconomic events, and geopolitical developments.
The interplay between regulatory developments and market sentiment further complicates the predictability of Bitcoin’s price movements.
Additionally, with the emergence of Bitcoin ETFs, increasing institutional adoption, and merchant acceptance, Bitcoin is increasingly integrated into the financial ecosystem, highlighting its potential as an asset and currency.
However, the Bitcoin market remains speculative, with its price often driven by news and events, such as the recent assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump, highlighting the unique and unpredictable factors that can affect its valuation.
The impact of Donald Trump’s assassination on Bitcoin
On July 13, former US President Donald Trump was assassinated during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. This dramatic event immediately affected the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin.
Following the event, the price of Bitcoin surged 4% to $60,300, its highest level in nearly ten days.
The sudden growth reversed a recent downward trend and surprised many in the crypto community.
Analysts at blockchain intelligence platform Santiment attributed the price surge to the bullish sentiment surrounding Trump, who recently spoke favorably of the cryptocurrency industry.
The market viewed the assassination as favorable news for Trump, which, combined with his public support for Bitcoin, sparked a positive reaction from investors.
Will Clemente, co-founder of Reflexivity Research, noted that the market could begin to factor in the possibility that Trump could win in the upcoming presidential election, further boosting the value of Bitcoin.
Additionally, data from Polymarkets shows that the assassination increased Trump’s chances of winning the election, with cryptocurrency bettors giving him a 70% chance of victory.
Trump’s growing popularity in the crypto community, coupled with endorsements from high-profile figures such as Elon Musk and Cathie Wood, may have contributed to the bullish market reaction.
Bitcoin Price Prediction and Technical Analysis After Trump Assassination
Following the assassination of Donald Trump, Bitcoin’s price saw a notable surge, breaking through a key resistance level.
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $60,787, consolidating inside the range following the recent price decline. Although the bears succeeded in pushing the price below the range, the failure to breakout on July 8 suggests that the bearish momentum is fading and sellers at lower levels might be exhausted.
On July 12, $310 million flowed into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs, suggesting that investors are confident of a short-term bottom, an encouraging sign of accumulation. This inflow of funds could fuel a bullish rally and boost the broader cryptocurrency market.
In addition to these inflows, on-chain data also shows massive accumulation by Bitcoin whales, who have increased their holdings by 71,000 BTC.
technical analysis
Daily chart: Bitcoin has broken above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the relative strength index (RSI) has seen a positive divergence, suggesting a possible bullish reversal. A sustained break above the $64,602 resistance level is crucial to confirm the bullish trend.
Summarize
Currently, Bitcoin’s price action remains balanced between the bulls and bears. A sustained breakout above the $64,602 resistance level will be crucial to confirm the bullish trend and potentially spark a broader cryptocurrency market rally. However, failure to hold above the 20-day EMA could result in a retest of lower supports.
Short-term: Bitcoin is expected to trade between $61,000 and $62,000 until Monday. A breakout above $63,000 could spark a rally towards the upper limit of the trading range. Conversely, a setback at the $61,000-62,000 level could trigger a drop to $55,000 or even $52,000.
