The altcoin season is one of the most anticipated events this year, as investors who don't own Bitcoin have long been waiting for profits.
The chances of an altcoin season have increased ahead of the recent crash, with hopes of happening next month.
JPMorgan is optimistic about the recovery
In a recent research report, JPMorgan said it expects Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets to recover in August. The report also notes that the likelihood of liquidations tapering off before the end of this month is high.
However, bearish market conditions have caused the bank to lower this year's net capital inflow estimate. Updated estimates suggest that the cryptocurrency market could record inflows worth $8 billion, down from previous expectations of $12 billion.
But if Bitcoin prices rise in August, according to the bank's estimates, altcoins could also recover. There is a misconception that altcoins are suffering from BTC growth, leading to a “Bitcoin season”.
Altcoin Season Index | Source: BlockChain Center
However, this will not happen as altcoins are only following in Bitcoin's footsteps. In fact, the last time altcoins rallied to mark the start of an altcoin season was in the second half of 2023, they closely followed BTC's signals.
But even rising alongside Bitcoin, at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins, excluding stablecoins, need to outperform BTC.
Only then will the “altcoin season” be confirmed to have begun.
Current situation of altcoins?
Altcoins are currently showing no signs of an altcoin season approaching, as at the time of writing, about 70% of altcoins are underperforming BTC over the past 90 days.
The only altcoins that are growing better than Bitcoin are Toncoin (TON), PEPE, BONK, Kaspa (KAS), Monero (XMR) and Tron (TRX). All other tokens sank in losses.
Performance of altcoins vs. Bitcoin | Source: BlockChain Center
So, if there is any solid chance of recording an altcoin season, it will likely happen in August.
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