The Fed cuts interest rates for the first time, and September may become a key node!
Economic rhythm is particular: Considering the monthly operation rules of the US economy, the interest rate cut at the end of July seems to be not the right time, fearing that it will cause chaos in the market.
Economic resilience: The US economy is still able to withstand it, which makes the interest rate cut not urgent, but everyone knows that monetary policy will have to be adjusted sooner or later.
The interest rate cut is postponed to September: The Fed moved the first cut from July to September, which has no major impact on the US economy. Everyone is still optimistic about the bottom of the US stock market at around 36,580 points.
A new cycle starts in August: Mid-to-late August is a small economic climax before the September interest rate cut, and the US economy will be lively again.
The US bond market is volatile: At this time, the US bonds are issued a lot, and the yield may rise again, almost catching up with this year's high point, and the market is worried again.
Geopolitical episode: As the interest rate of US debt rises, the United States may become more "radical" internationally, such as making some moves in the South China Sea, but the overall situation is still stable.
The international situation is worth watching: After the Olympics, Russia and Ukraine may make some small moves. Pay attention to the Middle East in July. Oil prices are estimated to reach 86.6 US dollars a barrel in early July.
Stock market trend forecast: A shares may bottom out at the end of August, and US stocks may be about the same in mid-August.
Risks to pay attention to in September: In early September, US stocks may have a small setback of "second bottoming out", so be careful.
Unemployment rate is linked to interest rate cuts: The key to the Fed's interest rate cuts depends on whether the unemployment rate can pass the 4.3% threshold. It is estimated that it will move at 4.4%. The current unemployment rate is 4.1%. Judging from the trend, it should be reached in September, and interest rate cuts will follow.
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