The highlights and analysis of Powell’s latest speech are as follows:
1. Current situation
GDP growth slows:
The pace of economic growth has slowed, but is still growing.
The unemployment rate is running at a low level:
The job market is in good shape, with the unemployment rate continuing to remain at a low level.
Inflationary pressures ease:
Inflation has eased but remains above the Fed's 2% target.
Interest rates remain stable:
Interest rates remain within the range of 5.25%-5.5% and will not be adjusted until the 2% inflation target is achieved.
2. Views on interest rate cuts
Rate cuts depend on changes in the unemployment rate:
If unemployment rises, the Fed will move quickly to cut interest rates.
If the unemployment rate remains stable or declines, current interest rates will remain unchanged.
Therefore, we should focus on changes in unemployment rate data in the future.
Market Reaction:
Powell's speech had little impact on the market, and the market reaction was muted.
Bitcoin (BTC) quickly gave up gains after a brief rally.
Overall, Powell's speech conveyed the Fed's current prudent policy stance and emphasized its close attention to inflation and unemployment, but it did not have a significant impact on the market. Investors should continue to pay attention to economic data, especially the unemployment rate, to judge future policy directions.
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