Bitcoin's recent performance has been characterized by noticeable declines since February 26, showing a volatile stabilization around $57,000.
Despite these fluctuations, Bitfinex analysts note that on-chain indicators indicate that the leading cryptocurrency may avoid sharper declines. Bitfinex's latest report, based on market data from July 6 and 7, shows that a potential local bottom is imminent for Bitcoin.
One of Bitcoin's recent declines comes from both the German law enforcement agency Bundeskriminalamt (BKA) and the now-defunct crypto exchange Mt. It stems from massive BTC sales by Gox's creditors. BKA contributes to market volatility by transferring large amounts of Bitcoin to various exchanges, institutional investors and over-the-counter desks. Also, Mt. Gox's creditors began receiving $9 billion in asset repayments, affecting market dynamics. These sell-offs caused a sell-off among all categories of investors and led to an increase in fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) in the market. However, analysts believe these sales may have already been priced in and their impact may be less than expected.
Several on-chain indicators suggest that the impact of these large-scale BTC selloffs is waning. An important indicator, the Coinbase Premium Index, measures the percentage difference in BTC prices between Coinbase Pro and other centralized exchanges. Coinbase Premium, which was low in June due to high selling pressures, has recently turned positive despite BTC prices remaining low, indicating a decrease in selling pressure. Additionally, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for short-term holders reached 0.97, which usually precedes a price recovery, indicating that this may be the case for BTC. The average funding rate across all BTC perpetual trading pairs also turned negative for the first time since May 1, supporting that BTC is stabilizing or approaching a local bottom.
There are other metrics that point to potential stabilization in the Bitcoin market. The value of SOPR indicates that current market participants engage in loss-taking activities that are generally consistent with price reversals. A negative funding rate on perpetual trading pairs implies that bearish market sentiment is moving towards stabilization. These indicators collectively suggest that although the Bitcoin market faces significant selling pressure and volatility, it is approaching a local bottom, setting the stage for a potential reversal.
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