📉 Recently, there has been a divergence between BTC and NASDAQ. While the NASDAQ constantly made new highs, BTC began to decline, greatly reducing the overall crypto market. 🤔 This does not align with conventional perception that NASDAQ and BTC are generally positively correlated. So, what is the logic behind this situation and have similar situations occurred throughout history?
🕰️ In fact, there is no fixed positive correlation between BTC and US stocks, the degree of this correlation varies at different stages of the cycle.
📈 When we examine the two bull markets, we see a mostly positive correlation between BTC and US stocks. There are also periods with negative correlations, but these are not mainstream.
🔮 What will the future market trends be like, how long will the divergence between BTC and NASDAQ last and how will the divergence be corrected? In terms of history and strength, in past bull markets, the divergence did not last long and returned to positive correlation after about 9 weeks.
🔍 If we measure by historical standards, the current market does not yet meet the full conditions for correction of divergence, more k-line information is needed.
📊 BTC, gold and US stocks exist in the same macro environment and prices are constrained by factors such as financial liquidity and risk-free return on assets. BTC rises rapidly at the beginning of the bull market and greatly exceeds US stocks. However, everything must come to an end, and after the major rally, BTC's performance may be weaker than US stocks.
📉 Finally, the market has recently been affected by the pressure from the German government and Mentougou. But no matter what, once BTC's correction is complete, it will regain its positive correlation with US stocks.