Market sentiment has changed significantly recently, with buyers taking a hit and now rumors swirling about potential losses on short positions. Derivatives traders are increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year. Despite a better-than-expected June nonfarm payrolls report, which showed strong job growth, downward revisions in previous months and a rise in unemployment have fueled expectations of Fed intervention. higher.

Derivatives markets currently reflect a 100% chance of two rate cuts in 2024, with a high probability that the first rate cut will take place as soon as September, estimated at 76%. Analysts such as Jeff Klingelhofer from Thornburg Investment Management believe there is still room for US bonds to rally, citing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's tendency to initiate a gradual easing cycle.

Concerns about inflation risks and signs of economic slowdown are reinforcing expectations for monetary easing. Jeffrey Rosenberg, portfolio manager at BlackRock, emphasized the importance of upcoming economic and inflation data in reinforcing expectations for a September rate cut. $BTC