While Bitcoin is above 23800-24800 and there is no trigger for general panic, perhaps not many are afraid to buy off their grandfather and alta. And although, I personally see some altcoins already at quite attractive prices, so I can slowly begin to cover shorts with a plus (which is what I do) and gradually gain long positions. But, all the same, somehow there is not enough general news stress and care (preferably with a fix) of BTC under 25k.
Therefore, for now I’m in no hurry to get rid of all short positions and get deeply into long positions. I keep in mind 1-2 more possible spills before something like a mid-term bottom is found. I assume that we may well see it in September-November. By medium term I mean 3-9 months.
So, for now, revenge, I mainly watch the further development of events. The ratio of shorts to longs in a portfolio is 55 to 45% in favor of short positions. There is quite a lot of cache. The drawdown in July and the first half of August, when I went a little overboard with shorts, has been almost completely recouped, although almost the entire summer turned out to be a little stressful for me. But reasonable money management and hedge forgive any mistakes.
I'll go over the BTCUSD Longs/Shorts indices. Although on August 17, the market saw record liquidations of long positions for this year, the BTCUSD Longs index shows that long positions are not yet thinking of shedding. A smooth set of long positions occurs from April 21, then goes into a small flat and again goes up from May 12. In those numbers, Bitcoin cost 27,300 and 25,950, respectively.
Then, we saw a sharp summer increase in the cue ball to almost 32k, now we are already seeing a sharp long squeeze of the asset, but long positions in both cases are not covered. I am personally interested to know what will happen to this index if it breaks through 24k (if this happens). That is, according to the technique of setting stops, logically, below 24,000 there will be some kind of pain and mini-capitulation for the bulls.
Regarding BTCUSD Shorts. The index is also in a locally upward movement (shorts are gaining gradually), starting on July 16-17 and accelerating slightly on August 17. In mid-July, BTC cost $30,400, and some of the passengers managed to go short on the strait on August 17 at about 27.5-28.5k. And I’m also interested in how the short sellers will behave when they break through 24,000. Will they massively take advantage or vice versa, maybe new bears will greedily fly into the market when the local bullish structure is broken.
From all this, it will be possible to draw additional conclusions about further actions. One of these days I’ll go over the Total market cap of altcoins. There is also an interesting graph at the moment
