From Ripple to Wave: The Transformative Power of Asset Tokenization

原文标题：《From ripples to waves: The transformational power of tokenizing assets》

撰文：Anutosh Banerjee，Matt Higginson，Julian Sevillano，Matt Higginson

Compiled by: Chris, Techub News

Tokenized financial assets are moving from the pilot phase to large-scale deployment. While adoption is not yet widespread, financial institutions that get involved in blockchain will have a strategic advantage.

Tokenization refers to the process of creating token assets on blockchain networks, and has become relatively mature after years of development. The benefits of tokenization include programmability, composability, and enhanced transparency. Tokenization can enable financial institutions to improve operational efficiency, increase liquidity, and create new revenue opportunities in innovative ways. These benefits have been realized today, and the first applications that adopt tokenization trade trillions of dollars of assets on the chain every month. However, tokenization itself still has some loopholes so far. To further integrate these technologies into traditional finance, it requires the cooperation of all relevant stakeholders and to do it in a robust, secure and compliant manner. As infrastructure players move from proof-of-concept to robust large-scale solutions, there will be many opportunities and challenges to reimagine how financial services will work in the future (see "What is tokenization?").

If we were asked to design the future of financial services, we would probably design something that incorporates many of the features of tokenized digital assets: 24/7 availability, instant liquidity for global collateral, fair access, composability thanks to a common technology stack, and controlled transparency. Larry Fink, chairman and CEO of BlackRock, said in January 2024: “We believe that the next step will be the tokenization of financial assets, which means that every stock, every bond will be recorded on a single ledger.” More and more institutions are launching and expanding tokenized products, from tokenized bonds and funds to private equity and cash.

As tokenization technology matures and demonstrates significant economic benefits, the digitization of assets now seems more inevitable. However, widespread adoption of tokenization is still far away. The current infrastructure is not perfect, especially in highly regulated industries like financial services. Therefore, we expect the adoption of tokenization to proceed in multiple stages: the first stage will be driven by companies or projects that can prove a return on investment and have a certain scale. Next will be companies or projects with smaller market size, less obvious benefits or more difficult technical challenges to solve.

Based on our analysis, we estimate that total tokenized market capitalization could reach approximately $2 trillion by 2030 (excluding cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and stablecoins such as USDT), driven by adoption in mutual funds, bonds and exchange-traded notes (ETNs), loans and securitizations, and alternative funds. In an optimistic scenario, this value could double to approximately $4 trillion.

In this article, we provide our perspective on tokenization adoption. We describe the current landscape of tokenized applications, which are largely focused on a limited set of assets, and the benefits and feasibility of broader tokenization. We then examine current use cases targeting meaningful market share and make the case for growth across different asset classes. For the remaining major financial asset classes, we examine the “cold start” problem and propose possible steps to address it. Finally, we consider the risks and benefits of first movers and offer a “call to action” for future financial market infrastructure participants.

Phased Tokenization

The speed and timing of tokenization adoption will vary across asset classes due to differences in expected returns, feasibility, impact time, and risk appetite of market participants. We expect these factors to determine when tokenization will be widely adopted. Asset classes with larger market value, higher friction in the current value chain, less mature traditional infrastructure, or lower liquidity are more likely to gain more than expected benefits from tokenization. For example, we believe that asset classes with lower technical complexity and regulatory considerations have the highest feasibility for tokenization.

Interest in tokenization investments may be inversely proportional to the level of fee abundance gained from current inefficient processes, depending on whether the function is handled in-house or outsourced, and the concentration of major players and their fees. Outsourced activities often achieve economies of scale, reducing the incentive to disrupt. The speed of return on investment associated with tokenization can strengthen the business case, thereby increasing interest in pursuing tokenization.

Specific asset classes can lay the foundation for adoption in subsequent asset classes by introducing clearer regulation, more mature infrastructure, and investment. Adoption will also vary by geography, influenced by the changing macro environment, including market conditions, regulatory frameworks, and buy-side demand. Finally, high-profile successes or failures can drive or limit further adoption.

Asset Classes Most Likely to Be Tokenized

Tokenization is advancing gradually, and the pace is expected to accelerate as network effects strengthen. Given their characteristics, certain asset classes that adopt tokenization may become popular within a decade or even sooner, and the total tokenization market may exceed $100 billion in the future. We expect the most prominent categories to include cash and deposits, bonds and ETNs, mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), as well as loans and securitization. For many of these asset classes, adoption rates are already high, thanks to the high efficiency and speed of value accretion brought by blockchain, as well as greater technical and regulatory feasibility.

We estimate that the total market for tokenized assets could reach approximately $2 trillion by 2030 (excluding cryptocurrencies and stablecoins), driven primarily by the assets in the chart below. We estimate the total market for tokenized assets to be between approximately $1 trillion and approximately $4 trillion. Our estimates exclude stablecoins, including tokenized deposits, wholesale stablecoins, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), to avoid double counting, as these are typically included as the corresponding cash in the settlement of transactions involving tokenized assets.

Mutual Fund

Tokenized market funds already have over $1 billion in assets, demonstrating that there is demand for on-chain capital in a high-interest environment. Investors can choose from funds managed by established firms such as BlackRock, WisdomTree, and Franklin Templeton, as well as funds managed by Web3 native firms such as Ondo Finance, Superstate, and Maple Finance. Tokenized market funds may have continued demand in a high-interest environment, and may also offset the role of stablecoins as an on-chain store of value. Other types of mutual funds and ETFs can provide on-chain capital diversification options to traditional financial instruments.

Moving to on-chain funds can greatly increase their utility, including instant 24-hour settlement and the ability to use tokenized funds as a payment instrument. As tokenized funds grow in size, more product-related and operational benefits will gradually become apparent. For example, highly customized investment strategies can be achieved through the composability of hundreds of tokenized assets. Using data on a shared ledger can reduce errors associated with manual reconciliation and increase transparency, thereby reducing operational and technical costs. While the overall demand for tokenized money market funds depends in part on the interest rate environment, it is now gaining traction.

Loans and securitization

Blockchain-backed lending is still in its early stages, but some institutions have already begun to succeed in this space: Figure Technologies is one of the largest non-bank home equity lines of credit (HELOC) lenders in the U.S., originating billions of dollars in loans. Web3 native companies such as Centifuge and Maple Finance, as well as others such as Figure, have facilitated the issuance of over $10 billion in blockchain loans.

We expect to see greater adoption of the tokenization of loans, especially in warehouse loans and on-chain loan securitization. Traditional loans are often characterized by complex processes and high centralization. Blockchain-backed loans offer an alternative with many benefits: Real-time on-chain data is stored in a unified master ledger as the only source of data, promoting transparency and standardization throughout the loan lifecycle. Smart contract-enabled payment calculations and simplified reporting reduce the cost and labor required. Shortened settlement cycles and access to a wider pool of capital can speed up transaction flows and potentially reduce costs for borrowers.

In the future, tokenizing a borrower’s financial metadata or monitoring their on-chain cash flows could enable fully automated, more fair, and accurate underwriting. As more loans move to private credit channels, incremental cost savings and speed are attractive benefits for borrowers. As overall digital asset adoption grows, so too will demand for Web3 native companies.

Bonds and Exchange Traded Notes

In the past decade, tokenized bonds with a total face value of over $10 billion have been issued worldwide. Recent notable issuers include Siemens, the City of Lugano, and the World Bank, among other companies, government-related entities, and international organizations. In addition, blockchain-based repurchase agreements (repos) have been adopted, resulting in trillions of dollars in monthly trading volume in North America, creating operational and capital efficiency value from existing flows.

Digital bond issuance is likely to continue as the potential returns are very high and relatively easy to achieve once at scale, in part due to the desire in some regions to stimulate capital market development. For example, in Thailand and the Philippines, tokenized bond issuance has achieved investor inclusion through small investments. While the benefits to date have been primarily on the issuance side, the end-to-end tokenized bond lifecycle could achieve at least 40% operational efficiency gains through data clarity, automation, embedded compliance (e.g., transferability rules encoded at the token level), and streamlined processes (e.g., asset servicing). In addition, lower costs, faster issuance, or decentralization could improve financing for small issuers through “just-in-time” financing (i.e., optimizing borrowing costs by raising a specific amount at a specific time) and tapping into global capital pools to expand the investor base.

Key points of repurchase agreement

Repurchase agreements, or “repos,” are an example where tokenization adoption can be observed. Broadridge Financial Solutions, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase currently trade trillions of dollars in repo volume per month. Unlike some tokenization use cases, repos do not require tokenization of the entire value chain to achieve substantial benefits.

Financial institutions improve operational efficiency and capital utilization efficiency through tokenized repo. From an operational perspective, smart contract-enabled execution automates routine operational management (e.g., collateral valuation and margin replenishment). It reduces errors and settlement failures and simplifies disclosure; 24/7 instant settlement and on-chain data also improve capital efficiency through intraday liquidity of short-term borrowings and enhanced collateral utilization.

Most repo terms are 24 hours or longer. Intraday liquidity can reduce counterparty risk, lower borrowing costs, enable inert cash to be loaned out at short notice, and reduce liquidity buffers. Real-time, 24/7, cross-jurisdictional collateral liquidity can provide access to higher-yielding, high-quality liquid assets and enable the optimal flow of such collateral between market participants, maximizing its availability.

Subsequent stages

In the eyes of many market participants, tokenized assets with great potential are alternative funds, which may drive the growth of assets under management and simplify the work of fund management. Smart contracts and interoperable networks can make managing large-scale autonomous portfolios more efficient by automating portfolio rebalancing. They may also provide new sources of capital for private assets. Decentralization and secondary market liquidity may help private funds obtain new capital from smaller retail and high-net-worth individuals. In addition, transparent data and automation on a unified master ledger can improve operational efficiency in the back office. Several established companies, including Apollo and JPMorgan Chase, are conducting experiments to test portfolio management on blockchain. However, in order to fully realize the benefits of tokenization, the underlying assets must also be tokenized.

For some other asset classes, adoption of tokenization may be slower, either because of feasibility issues, such as meeting compliance obligations or lack of adoption incentives from key market participants (see Figure 2). These asset classes include publicly traded and unlisted stocks, real estate, and precious metals.

figure 2

Overcoming the cold start problem

The cold start problem is a common challenge when adopting tokenization. In the world of tokenized financial assets, issuance is relatively easy and replicable, but it can only achieve a certain scale if it can capture user demand: whether it is through cost savings, good liquidity, or more compliance.

In fact, despite some progress in proof-of-concept experiments and single fund issuance, token issuers and investors still face the cold start problem: limited liquidity can hinder the issuance process because trading volume is insufficient to establish a robust market; fear of losing market share may cause first movers to incur additional expenses by supporting parallel issuance of traditional technologies;

Take the tokenization of bonds, for example, where new tokenized bond issuances are announced almost weekly. While there are billions of dollars of tokenized bonds outstanding today, the returns are modest compared to traditionally issued bonds, and secondary trading volumes remain low. Here, overcoming the cold start problem requires building a use case where the digital representation of collateral brings substantial benefits, including greater liquidity, faster settlement, and higher liquidity. Achieving real, sustained long-term value requires coordination across multifaceted value chains and broad participation from participants in the new digital asset class.

Given the complexity of upgrading the underlying operating platforms of the financial services industry, we believe that a minimum viable value chain (MVVC) is needed (by asset class) to support the scaling of tokenized solutions and overcome some of these challenges. To fully realize the benefits proposed in this article, financial institutions and partner institutions must work together on a common or interoperable blockchain network. This interconnected infrastructure represents a new paradigm and raises regulatory concerns and some feasibility challenges (see Figure 3).

image 3

Currently, there are multiple projects working to build universal or interoperable blockchains for institutional financial services, including the Monetary Authority of Singapore's "Guardian Project" and the "Regulated Settlement Network". In the first quarter of 2024, the Canton Network pilot project brought together 15 asset management companies, 13 banks, as well as multiple custodians, exchanges, and a financial infrastructure provider to conduct simulated transactions. The pilot project verified that traditionally isolated financial systems can be successfully connected and synchronized, leveraging public permissioned blockchains while maintaining privacy controls.

While there are successful examples on both public and private blockchains, it is not clear which blockchain will carry the most transaction volume. Currently, in the United States, most federally regulated institutions are discouraged from using public blockchains for tokenization. But globally, many institutions choose the Ethereum network because of the liquidity and composability it provides. As unified ledgers continue to be built and tested, the debate over public networks vs. private networks is far from over.

The way forward

Comparing the current state of tokenization of financial assets to the rise of other disruptive technologies shows that we are still in the early stages of adoption. Consumer technologies (such as the internet, smartphones, and social media) and financial innovations (such as credit cards and ETFs) typically show the fastest growth (greater than 100% annual growth) within the first five years after their emergence. Annual growth then slows to around 50%, ultimately achieving more modest CAGRs of 10% to 15% more than a decade later. Although experiments began as early as 2017, large-scale issuance of tokenized assets has only occurred in recent years. Our market capitalization estimates for 2030 assume, on average, a 75% CAGR across asset classes, with the first wave of tokenized assets leading the way.

While it is reasonable to expect tokenization to drive transformation in the financial industry, there may be additional benefits for first movers who can “catch the wave.” First movers can capture outsized market share (especially in markets that benefit from economies of scale), increase their own efficiencies, set the agenda for formats and standards, and benefit from the reputational halo of embracing emerging innovations. Early adopters of tokenized cash payments and on-chain repos have demonstrated this.

But more institutions are in a "wait-and-see" state, waiting for clearer market signals. Our view is that tokenization is already at a critical point, which suggests that institutions that are still in a "wait-and-see" state may not be able to keep up with the times once they see some important signs, including the following:

• - Infrastructure: Blockchain technology capable of supporting trillions of dollars in transactions

• - Integration: Different blockchains can be seamlessly connected

• - Supporting factors: Widespread availability of tokenized cash (e.g. CBDC, stablecoins, tokenized deposits) to enable instant settlement of transactions

• - Demand: Buy-side participants are willing to invest in on-chain capital products on a large scale

• - Regulation: actions that provide certainty and support a fairer, more transparent and more efficient financial system across jurisdictions, clarifying data access and security

While we haven’t seen all of these signs come to fruition yet, we expect the wave of tokenized adoption to come soon. Tokenization adoption will be led by financial institutions and market infrastructure players, who will come together to take the lead. We call these collaborations minimum viable value chains (MVVCs). Examples of MVVCs include the blockchain-based repo ecosystem operated by Broadridge, and Onyx, a collaboration between JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs and BNY Mellon.

In the coming years, we expect to see more MVVCs emerge to capture value from other use cases, such as instant business-to-business payments through tokenized cash; dynamic “smart” management of on-chain funds by asset managers; or efficient lifecycle management of government and corporate bonds. These MVVCs will likely be supported by network platforms created by incumbents and fintech disruptors.

For first movers, there are both risks and rewards: the upfront investment and the risk of investing in new technologies can be considerable. Not only do first movers receive attention, but they also need to develop infrastructure and run parallel processes on traditional platforms, which is both time-consuming and resource-intensive. In addition, in many jurisdictions, regulatory and legal certainty for interacting with any form of digital assets is insufficient, while key enabling factors, such as widespread availability of wholesale tokenized cash and deposits for settlement, have not yet been met.

The history of blockchain adoption is littered with losers from such challenges. This history may deter incumbents that feel safer operating business as usual on traditional platforms. But this strategy carries risks, including significant loss of market share. Because the current high interest rate environment provides clear use cases for some tokenized products, such as buybacks, market conditions have the potential to quickly impact demand. As markers of tokenization adoption emerge, such as regulatory clarity or infrastructure maturity, trillions of dollars in value could be moved on-chain, creating a sizable value pool for first movers and disruptors (see Figure 4).

Figure 4

Short-term action path

In the short term, institutions including banks, asset managers and market infrastructure players should evaluate their product portfolios and determine which assets are most likely to benefit from a shift to tokenized products. We recommend thinking about whether tokenization can accelerate strategic priorities such as entering new markets, launching new products and/or attracting new customers. Are there use cases that are likely to create value in the short term? And what internal capabilities or partnerships are needed to seize the opportunities presented by market transformation?

By aligning buyer and seller pain points with buyers and market conditions, stakeholders can assess where tokenization poses the greatest risk to their market share. But realizing the full benefits requires collaboration to create a minimum viable value chain. Solving these issues now can help existing players avoid embarrassing situations when demand surges.