In the digital currency market, Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent market behavior has diverged significantly from the bullish trend in U.S. stocks. Although Bitcoin is trying to break through the $63,000 price mark, it is still encountering heavy resistance.
According to a report by Bitfinex and the media, the price of Bitcoin once climbed to an all-time high of $73,000 in the first half of 2024, and market sentiment was generally optimistic. However, as the middle of the year approached, this enthusiasm began to cool, and Bitcoin faced multiple unfavorable factors in June, causing the price to fall by nearly 15% from the high point in March.
The current policy is said to have had a significant impact on the Bitcoin market, reducing its volatility and hindering further price increases. Meanwhile, data from Santiment shows that Bitcoin’s weekly volatility dropped sharply from 0.1306 in mid-March to a yearly low of 0.0198 in June.
Bitfinex analysts noted that long-term holders paused their selling activity in early May but then resumed it. The resumption of selling activity, coupled with excess supply in the market, put further pressure on Bitcoin prices.
Meanwhile, on-chain indicators show that long-term holders are still choosing to take profits even though Bitcoin's current price is below its all-time high of about $69,000 in 2021. Although miners' selling has decreased, the high profit-taking rate of long-term holders indicates that Bitcoin may face downside risks in the short term. In addition, the possible Bitcoin selling behavior of Mt. Gox bondholders and the German government has exacerbated the market's oversupply problem.
The report said that in the broader macroeconomic environment, the personal consumption expenditure index used by the Federal Reserve to assess inflation models remained stable in May, which strengthened market expectations of a possible interest rate cut in September. However, signs of weakness in the third quarter GDP and a decline in consumer confidence in the United States did not bring the expected boost to Bitcoin.
Despite the macroeconomic tailwinds, Bitcoin has not benefited as expected and has decoupled from the U.S. stock market. In June, Bitcoin fell more than 8%, while the SPX (S&P 500) rose 3.5%.
At the same time, supply issues are not the only reason why Bitcoin is diverging from the stock market. Speculative buying and panic selling caused by news are also factors. Due to the decline in spot market interest and negative net flows of investment products, the Bitcoin market is more sensitive to negative news. $BTC
Despite the overall positive outlook for Bitcoin in July, as of writing, Bitcoin has fallen 0.18% to trade at $62,675, erasing gains from the beginning of the month. Analysts expect that despite the challenges, the Bitcoin market is expected to recover in the short term. #比特币 #美股 #加密市场 #行情趋势
Conclusion:
The recent trend of Bitcoin reminds us that the digital currency market is full of uncertainty. Investors should remain calm when facing price fluctuations and comprehensively consider multiple factors such as policies, economic indicators and market sentiment to formulate a reasonable investment strategy. Although Bitcoin faces challenges in the short term, its innovative technology and potential application prospects cannot be ignored.
Looking ahead, Bitcoin and the blockchain technology behind it are expected to continue to drive financial innovation. Investors need to pay close attention to market developments, grasp emerging trends, and remain sensitive to risks in order to achieve a solid return on investment. In this rapidly changing market, adaptation and learning are the keys to seizing opportunities.