The impact of Joe Biden's withdrawal on the crypto market
The US presidential election has attracted more and more attention from cryptocurrency investors. Recently, there have been reports that Biden may withdraw from the election. What does this mean for the market? Let's analyze it.
The possibility of Biden withdrawing from the election is rising. According to data from the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Biden withdrawing from the election has risen to 50%, and the trading volume of the relevant market has exceeded 8 million US dollars.
Analysts generally believe that Biden's cognitive decline and poor debate performance may lead to his resignation or impeachment. The prediction market shows that Biden's probability of re-election has fallen to 18%, the probability of withdrawing from the election has risen to 47%, and the probability of Vice President Harris winning the Democratic nomination has risen to 13%.
In the short term, Biden's withdrawal from the election will bring uncertainty to the market and may trigger a sell-off. But in the long term, Trump's approval rating is still higher than other candidates, and his victory will be a major catalyst for the rise in cryptocurrency prices.
During the campaign, Trump expressed support for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, in contrast to the cautious and strict regulatory stance of the Biden administration. Analysis predicts that if Trump is re-elected, there will be a big bull market from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the first quarter of 2026.
However, if the Democratic Party can introduce a strong new candidate, Trump's chances of winning will also decrease, which may not be good for cryptocurrency enthusiasts. In addition, the prices of some political meme coins may also fluctuate significantly as the election develops.
Overall, the news of Biden's withdrawal from the election is fermenting, which may increase market volatility in the short term. In the medium and long term, Trump's re-election is good for cryptocurrencies, but the final result still depends on whether the Democratic Party can introduce a competitive candidate. Investors need to pay close attention to changes in political trends and prepare in advance.
