#美国5月核心PCE物价指数年率增幅创2021年3月以来新低

The PCE data released on Friday boosted expectations for the Federal Reserve's September rate cut, but the market began to price in the possibility of Trump winning the US presidential election. The pressure on the Democratic Party to "change people" suddenly increased, which also put pressure on US stocks and US bonds. US stocks closed down collectively on Friday, but the S&P 500 index rose nearly 15% in the first half of the year; US Treasury yields rebounded sharply from intraday lows, falling 12 basis points in June, but rose 50 basis points in the first half of the year; the US dollar fell slightly on Friday, but rose for four consecutive weeks, up more than 3% in the first half of the year; the yen fell 12% in the first half of the year.

Gold fell for the first time in four months, but rose nearly 14% in the first half of the year, and silver rose nearly 26% so far this year. Israel said it was preparing militarily for a conflict with Hezbollah. Oil prices rose for three consecutive weeks and were close to the highest since late April. U.S. oil rose more than 6% in June, and both U.S. and Brent crude oil rose more than 12% in the first half of the year.