According to Jinshi, Goldman Sachs published a report saying that its forecast for the Fed's rate cut this year has been reduced from 1% to 0.75%, and its reports on the rebound in underlying inflation have been greatly exaggerated. The annualized increase in core PCE inflation from September to November last year was 2.5%, slightly higher than the 2.3% in the previous three months, but lower than the 2.8% year-on-year increase, which is still in line with the phenomenon of continued decline.
The report also pointed out that the annualized PCE inflation of the Dallas Fed after adjusting the average PCE inflation from September to November last year was 2.4%, and 1.8% in November last year. As the tightness of the labor market has returned to the level of 2017, the annual wage growth rate has slowed to 3.9%, which is in the range of 3.5 to 4%. If productivity grows by 1.5 to 2% in the next few years, it will be consistent with 2% inflation.