According to BlockBeats, on-chain data analysts proposed three conditions for the launch of the altcoin season: capital overflow, capital inflow from mainstream assets, and positive momentum in the discrete market value of altcoins.
Condition 1: Fund overflow assessment: the amount of stablecoins flowing into the exchange within 30 days is greater than the USD value of BTC withdrawn, with the largest overflow values during October 2023-March 2024 and November 2024-December 2024.
Condition 2: The 30-day change in the total supply of BTC, ETH, and stablecoins shows net capital inflows, and market sentiment is high during 2023.10-2024.8 and 2024.10-2024.12.
Condition 3: The 7D SMA is greater than the 30D SMA in the altcoin market capitalization dispersion, and liquidity is tilted during 2023.10-2024.4 and 2024.11-2024.12.
Currently, condition 2 is met, but 1 and 3 are not met, and liquidity is still concentrated in mainstream assets.
