OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMPUSDT) was launched officially on Friday by President Donald Trump, reaching a market capitalization peak of $15 billion.
It naturally falls into the category of memecoins and even though the token may very well keep rising with its technical corrections and rallies, the big question that is on everyone's mind is this:
SHOULD IT EVEN BE LEGAL?
This post isn't a political one, we wouldn't care any less if the token was named Bidencoin or Obamacoin. Our concern falls purely in the economic sphere and the financial consequences a price collapse may have on its (naive?) investors and the whole crypto market in general.
Obviously, having released only 20% of supply to the general public while the remaining 80% of tokens that have yet to be publicly released are owned by the Trump Organization affiliate CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC (a company formed in Delaware on Jan. 7), is in principle a positive step and a small sign towards proper governance. But naturally the token’s website includes a disclaimer noting TRUMP is “not intended to be, or the subject of” an investment opportunity nor a security of any type, and is “not political and has nothing to do with” any political campaign, political office or government agency.
Again to avoid confusion, the token may very well extend the current rally, after all it has been on 3 enormous straight green candles, and even double in price and enter the top 10 of crypto with more than $30B cap.
But can you image the consequences to the whole market if some of that 20% of public supply or any of the 6 wallets that own more than $600 million each, makes a rug pull? Beyond the ethical aspect, should it be legal for the President of the United States to have such a large stake on this kind of venture? Does the idea of a 'free market' apply under the above conditions?
We are just raising our concerns and nothing more, as it took us, the whole crypto community, 25 years to get the market from a state of ridicule to a global force that is already reshaping the world as we know it. And it is our responsibility to question moves and call potential dangers if we see one. How will it reflect to crypto investors if the U.S. President's coin goes from no 15 in the market cap to bust? It took a lot of years and effort for the first BTC ETF to attract high profile capital to the market from investors that would otherwise never though of buying cryptocurrency if it weren't for Blackrock and others to back it up with an ETF. Will those people or even normal investors maintain their appetite if the U.S. President fails to safeguard even his own coin?
Lots of questions, tough answers. Feel free to tell us what you think about TRUMP's coin.
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Ethereum (ETHUSD) is having a strong recovery rebound this week after marginally breaking below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) earlier. This indicates enormous buying pressure on the Bull Cycles first core Support level (the second being the 1M MA50 (red trend-line) which supported twice last Aug/Sep).
In comparative terms, relative to ETH's previous Bull Cycle, we are around the October 2020 levels, which was the last consolidation before the Cycle's main Parabolic Rally started. This is also evident on the 1W RSI fractals among the two. The rally exceeded by a small margin the 1.5 Fibonacci extension and formed the Cycle Top.
As a result, we expect ETH to hit at least the $10k level before this Cycle tops towards the end of the year. Technically, we should see the 1W MA50 support until the end.
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If you follow us for long, you know that we are very fond of using Fibonacci levels on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Cycles in order to project future tops and bottoms. Today is one of those analyses, in fact it is a strong variation of the following Inverse Head and Shoulders call:

As you can see, that was based on the condition that BTC would make a first hit and rejection on the 0.786 Fib retracement and then (as it happened on the previous Cycle) would go for a Cycle Top on the 2.0 Fibonacci, which gives us a $165k Target.
Since the 0.786 Fib never really offered the rejection of the previous 3 Cycles, we are introducing a variation model with new parameters.
We take the Fib extension from the bottom of each Cycle to the moment it made contact with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). As you can see by applying these conditions, every Cycle since BTC's inception has hit at least the 5.0 Fibonacci extension, with all Cycles in fact making a perfect Top there with the exception of 2017, which even exceeded it.
As a result, we can claim that this Cycle will have a minimum peak at $185000.
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