As Bitcoin corrects from its all-time high (ATH) of $108k, the market has seen a reduction in speculative excess, while demand remains steady. Short-term holders bear most unrealized losses, but stress levels are modest compared to previous downturns.

Executive Summary
Market Correction and Support:Bitcoin is down 11% from its ATH but maintains a constructive market structure above key support levels.Z-Score Analysis:Cyclical highs typically align with metrics trading 1.5 to 2.0σ above their mean, offering insight for navigating bullish phases.Short-Term Holders' Cost Basis:Bitcoin's current price is 10% above the short-term holders' cost basis of $88.4k. A drop below this level could signal increased downside risk.Unrealized Losses:Between 2.0M and 3.5M BTC are underwater, reflecting moderate market stress.Relative Unrealized Losses:Peaked at 4.3% in Q3 2024, lower than previous cycles, indicating a more patient and spot-driven market dynamic.
Evolving Peaks in Market Metrics
Realized Price and Market Structure
The Realized Price represents the average cost basis of all Bitcoins moved on-chain. Paired with the MVRV Ratio, these metrics provide a lens to evaluate unrealized profits and losses:
MVRV Ratio: Currently at 1.32, indicating the average Bitcoin holds an unrealized profit of 32%.Positive Sentiment: This metric mirrors conditions seen post-ATH in mid-April 2024, reflecting resilience despite market corrections.
Short-Term Holders and Risk Levels
The current price is above the short-term holders' average cost basis, maintaining a buffer against downside momentum.If momentum stalls and the price dips below $88.4k, short-term holders may face higher stress levels, potentially triggering a broader correction.
Spot-Driven Market Dynamics
Compared to earlier cycles marked by external shocks, the current market reflects a more spot-driven and patient investor base. Unrealized losses are concentrated among short-term participants, indicating less speculative froth than in previous corrections.
Conclusion
While Bitcoin faces moderate stress during this correction, the market structure remains constructive. Key metrics such as the MVRV Ratio and relative unrealized losses suggest that sentiment is still positive, albeit cautiously. Maintaining levels above $88.4k is critical for sustaining market confidence and avoiding a deeper correction.


$BTC #OnChainAnalysis #Glassnode #BTC #cpi #USPPITrends

Crypto analysis company #Glassnode touched on the short-term cost base in #BTC and stated that "the bear has emerged" if prices maintain this level. Although Glassnode analysts warned about this, they stated that long-term investor movements indicate that the bull market is not over yet.
Glassnode made very important analyses about the cycle in the X account.
In the warehouse's sharing, it was stated that the price was approaching the cost base of short-term Bitcoin investors. Glassnode stated that this level was around $ 88,135 and that it was strong below this figure, and that a change that could be a turning point in Bitcoin could begin.
The company, which also analyzed long-term investor movements, stated that those in the market did not give signs that the bull market was over.
"The perspective of sentiment change is very important..."
The analyses, which drew attention to the importance of the level at 88,135, wrote that a permanent stance below this level, the fluctuation in the weakness indicator and past distributions, and that such declines showed a major change in the market flow.
If the price "falls" below this level, we can think that the feeling of its new growth has weakened. This could be a turning point in the trend. The Bitcoin price is currently 5% above the cost base of this short-term investor.
"Long-term investors are selling quickly"
Glassnode analysts, who stated that those who have held their BTCs for 155 days or more (long-term financial information) are also working quickly, said the following:
"Although it is more than 12% below the all-time record, long-term investors continue to sell. The sales pace is still high, but it has started to slow down. The 30-day supply change of the long-term amount shows that the sales pace continues to peak/peak. In old cycles, you see that you continue to rise in price even after this increase in sales pace."
"Almost completely in profit, the cyclical is not over"
Analysts, who said that almost all of the long-term time is currently in profit, said, "It indicates the end of a cycle in which the long-term life experienced serious losses written in the past numbers. But that is not the case right now,” they said.
#AltcoinBoom #10DaysToTrump #CryptoETFNextWave

#BTC‬ <t-73/>#glassnode #new+ <t-76/>#ончейн The dynamics of capital flows, exchange activity, leverage in crypto derivatives and demand from institutions all indicate a jump in risk appetite among Bitcoin investors. Glassnode came to this conclusion.The risk appetite for#Bitcoininvestors is increasing, with growing signs of speculation appearing across capital flows, exchange activity, derivatives leverage, and even institutional demand.

Glassnode, a leading on-chain data analysis platform, has highlighted critical price levels that could shape Bitcoin’s ($BTC ) price direction in the coming weeks. These levels, derived from the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) metric, could either signal resilience or trigger a deeper correction in BTC's price trajectory.
Bitcoin’s Price Dynamics:
Dense Supply Cluster ($88,100 - $103,000):
A significant number of $BTC holders are positioned within this range, likely taking profits.
This range represents a key zone of resistance that could dictate BTC’s ability to push higher or face a downturn.
Air Gap Region ($70,000 - $88,100):
Below the dense cluster is a zone with much lower supply concentration.
This region could act as a bottom discovery zone if BTC faces a prolonged downturn, similar to previous price discovery phases.
Key Levels and Implications:
1. $88,100:
Represents the lower boundary of the dense cluster and a critical support level.
A break below this level could push BTC into the air-gapped region.
2. $70,000:
Acts as a potential bottom for BTC during severe market corrections.
A drop to this level could trigger massive accumulation as investors buy at a perceived discount.
3. $98,000:
A level where buyers have consistently shown resilience, indicating strong support and potential for upward movement.
Resilience or Correction?
Bitcoin’s recent price activity, with $BTC trading around $96,000, places it near the critical $88,100 level. If BTC maintains support here, it could pave the way for positive price action toward $100,000+.
Conversely, a sustained break below this zone increases the likelihood of BTC entering the air-gapped region, potentially testing the $70,000 level.
What This Means for Investors:
Resilience: BTC needs to sustain above $88,100 and show strength at $98,000 for a bullish continuation.
Correction: A break below $88,100 could lead to an extended consolidation or buying opportunities in the $70,000 range.
#Bitcoin #BTCAnalysis #CryptoInsights #Glassnode #BinanceAlphaAlert