After the non-farm payroll data beat expectations last Friday, officials have fundamentally changed their stance, and this week is still a time of dense rhetoric.
Last night, some senior officials said that the rate cut will depend on the data, caution is paramount, and competing risks need to be balanced. CME also continued to lower the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in November to 13%.
Yesterday I said that in the current rate cut cycle, positive economic and employment data are all good signs, which is also why the US stock market maintained its upward momentum last night. Next, we need to pay attention to the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and CPI data.
In addition, before the US presidential election, the market also has to face the impact of two storms, which will be reflected in the unemployment claims released on Thursday and the October non-farm payrolls data released on November 1, which should be paid attention to.
In fact, at present in the US, whether it is policy or data, it has been very stable, the impact on the market is no longer big, not even as big as a certain move from the Middle East.
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