Key points 

The next two weeks will have a notable absence of major macro data points, creating a "bullish vacuum" for the crypto market until early May.

On April 18, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chairman will be forced to defend his oversight of the US bitcoin and crypto industries in a meeting arranged by the head of the Financial Services Committee.

Weak labor market data in the US could be an indication that the country is entering a recession, but a healthy labor market could delay or mitigate the severity of the approaching recession.

Investors should monitor the dollar index (DXY), as a continued decrease could give support for a further increase in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.

In the short term, the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets are confronting a "bullish vacuum." Following considerably lower-than-expected inflation figures (CPI and PPI) and the much-anticipated turn by the Federal Reserve in the United States, the Bitcoin price was able to maintain its recent positive trend, reaching a new yearly high of $30,968 last Friday. After the previous several weeks were always jam-packed with crucial macro data, the next two weeks include almost no key data items. Only on May 3rd, when the US Federal Reserve's next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled, will this alter.

Following several weeks of significant macro data releases, the next two weeks will see a notable absence of major data points. However, this is set to change on May 03 with the next scheduled meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve.

As a result, there is a bullish vacuum until early May, when it appears likely that the entire crypto market and Bitcoin will continue to rally. However, a few events are expected to have an impact on the market this week. Every Monday, we look at the most important dates.

Upcoming Event Could Have Critical Implications for Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency

On Tuesday, April 18, all eyes will be on Washington, D.C., where US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chairman Gary Gensler will be forced to defend his oversight of the US bitcoin and crypto industries. According to Bitcoinist, the meeting has been arranged by Patrick McHenry, head of the Financial Services Committee.

McHenry wishes to investigate Gensler's actions against the US cryptocurrency business. He stated in an interview:

This will be our first oversight hearing of the Securities and Exchange Commission. This will be about his rulemaking and his approach to digital assets. It will have a large general oversight over the SEC. In terms of policy, [this will be] a serious approach in terms of us laying down […] a regulatory sphere for digital assets.

As the chair of the Digital Assets Subcommittee, French Hill (Republican) and Warren Davidson (Republican) are expected to bombard Gensler with questions, with the latter being one of his toughest opponents. Davidson even tweeted recently that "Fire Gary" should be a bipartisan campaign.

Looking ahead, the weekly report on initial unemployment claims in the US will be released on Thursday, April 20 at 8:30 a.m. (EST). Last week's figures were once again higher than anticipated. This week, the expected number is 240,000, up slightly from 239,000 the previous week.

In the past few weeks, weak labor market data has suggested that the US job market is slowly cooling. The JOLTS jobs report and NFP labor market statistics have both fallen short of expectations. If the latest figures on initial unemployment claims continue this trend, it could be a further indication that the US is entering a recession.

However, if the labor market stabilizes and jobless claims stop increasing for the time being, it would be beneficial for the crypto market. A healthy labor market could delay or mitigate the severity of the approaching recession.

Third, investors should monitor the dollar index (DXY). If the DXY continues to decrease, it could give support for a further increase in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. Analyst Scott Melker recently presented the following chart and stated:

2 months later, the right shoulder has formed and the neckline is being tested. Still just an idea, but if that black line breaks this would confirm and we should see sustained dollar weakness.

Sustained DXY weakness incoming?| Source: @scottmelker

At press time, the Bitcoin price stood at $29,899.

Bitcoin price, 1-hour chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

chart from TradingView.com

Source: bitcoinist.com

#dxy #BTC #bitcoin #fomc #Fed

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Disclaimer

The views and opinions expressed by the author, or any people mentioned in this article, are for informational purposes only, and they do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice. Investing in or trading crypto assets comes with a risk of financial loss.

Dollar Currency Index also has it's impact on traditional markets and Bitcoin. We have seen a correction, that's why BTC and other crypto demonstrated this unexpected rally. In my opinion the bull market on the DXY is not over yet.

Looking at the chart I can see that we need one more leg up in global wave 5. The target area for wave 4 has been reached, but the waves structure tells us that only wave A has been ended. Wave B has the target at the 0.61 Fibonacci retracement of wave A. After that I expect the wave C and last pump in wave 5. What is gonna happen with SP500 and Bitcoin you can guess😁

Chart 1. DXY.

Best regards, Ivan

Subscribe now and never miss an update👍#dxy #crypto2023 #dyor #skyrex

The Bitcoin price remains the all-determining trend setter for the crypto market. After the Bitcoin price fell to as low as $29,173 yesterday, dragging all altcoins down with it, the crypto market is back in the green across the board today.

At press time, the Bitcoin price has once again climbed above the key resistance level of $29,800. This means that BTC has gained 2.7% since yesterday’s low and was trading back above $29,900. Altcoins such as Arbitrum (ARB), Chainlink (LINK) and Avalanche (AVAX) are recording sharp price gains, dwarfing the Bitcoin uptrend.

Here’s Why Bitcoin And Crypto Are Up Today

As NewsBTC reported, yesterday’s correction in the Bitcoin price can be seen as a technical consolidation. In particular, the medium-term macroeconomic outlook continues to argue that both Bitcoin and the entire crypto market will see a continuation of their rally.

An impetus for today’s rally may have been provided by the macro data from China, among other things. As announced in the morning hours today, China’s economy grew by 4.5% in the first quarter of 2023, the fastest pace in a year.

Moreover, the increase was steeper than expected, as the end of “Zero COVID” led to a surge in consumer spending and factory output. All data were positive across the board. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (YoY) came in at 4.5% in Q1 2023, up from 4.0% estimate.

Retail sales rose to 10.6% in March (YoY), versus 7.4% estimate. The unemployment rate was 5.3% versus 5.5% (estimate).

The US dollar index (DXY) is also likely to have provided additional impetus. Bitcoin and the DXY are inversely correlated, which means that the cryptocurrency usually rises when the DXY falls.

The DXY has come under heavy pressure in recent weeks, but has experienced a minor relief rally since Friday, pushing the index up from 100,807 to 102,207. Now today, the DXY is showing a renewed weakness, plunging to 101,603.

What’s Next For Bitcoin And The DXY?

With this in mind, Glassnode co-founders Jan Happel and Yann Allemann call Bitcoin’s current move a “shallow correction,” which is the hallmark of a strong bull market rally. The analysts argue that there was a possibility of a potential pullback to $25,000.

However, this has not materialized as Bitcoin has risen to $30k in a matter of days. “This is a very clear signal of the strength of momentum and higher prices are expected,” write Happel and Allemann, who add:

We have pointed out $35k as the next major target – before $47k. This is still the outlook just as we expect much higher prices into late Q2 and Q3. But we still need to ask the question of the possible consequence for bitcoin if/when DXY moves to 105-107.

The two analysts expect the DXY to reach the 91-93 range before the end of the year. However, based on the Elliott wave theory, they do expect a bounce to the upside first:

We expect DXY to reach 105.8 or perhaps 107.2 – before rolling strongly over. A convincing decline below 100 would seriously question this setup.

#dxy #Binance #crypto2023 #BTC #BullRun