Five Kondratieff cycles in history
From textile machinery to information technology, the human economy has experienced multiple cycles of prosperity and recession:
1. Textile machinery and the early industrial revolution:
• Prosperity: 1782-1802 (20 years)
• Recession: 1815-1825 (10 years)
2. Steel and railways:
• Prosperity: 1845-1873 (28 years)
• Recession: 1873-1885 (12 years)
3. Electrical and heavy chemical industries:
• Prosperity: 1892-1913 (21 years)
• Recession: 1920-1929 (9 years)
4. Automobiles and electronic computers:
• Prosperity: 1948-1973 (25 years)
• Recession: 1973-1982 (9 years)
5. Information technology:
• Prosperity: 1991-2008 (17 years)
• Recession period: 2008-2020 (12 years)
Current and future:
• At this stage, we may be in the recovery period of information technology. With the emergence of new technologies such as ChatGPT and AGI, a new round of prosperity cycle may begin in the future.
Which stage do you think we are in?#EconomicCycle#TechnologyRevolution#HistoricalTrend
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