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🇺🇸 JPMorgan says the odds of a US recession by the end of the year are now at 35%. #USRecession

US Recession: Will Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rate To Avoid Chaos?

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The US market is at the verge of a major recession according to several market data, a reality that might trigger the Feds to step in

The US recession scare is getting more intense, especially with the soaring stock market volatility. Economic data unleashed in the past few weeks have not helped the market resilience with most stocks taking series of beating over the last 30 days.

While the odds are not in the favor of the economy, the question remains whether the Feds will step up to save the day.

Why is US Recession More Likely?
An earlier insight shared by market analyst Game of Trades revealed major trends that shows the economy might slip soon.

First, he pointed out how the S&P 500 chart is at the verge of a major correction after about a year. This correction will come after sky-high stock market valuation that has seen top firms hit massive peaks.

Just like the stock market, the digital correction ecosystem might also record similar corrections moving on. While many projection higher highs for Bitcoin (BTC), the correlation with the stock market is a major factor to note.

The potential stock and crypto market selloff is also complemented by the trends in the yield curve.

According to Game of Trades, this yield curve is showcasing a steep trend, one that speaks to a possible US recession.

In addition to these, the Shiller PE Ratio is at its highest level after 150 years. The Shiller PE Ratio is a metric that shows whether the stock market is overvalued or undervalued.

With stocks like NVIDIA soaring above $3 trillion recently, and  MicroStrategy outperforming in growth terms, this ratio shows over-valued market.

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Recession Fears❗: How Will a US Economic Downturn Impact Stock and Crypto Markets?🤔

The United States is facing a potential recession, sparking concerns among investors and traders. A recession could lead to another stock and crypto selloff, similar to the one experienced in 2020. The US economy has been experiencing a slowdown, with inflation rates soaring and consumer spending decreasing.

The yield curve, a key indicator of recession, has inverted, signaling a potential economic downturn. This has led to fears of a stock market crash, with investors seeking safe-haven assets. The crypto market, which has been closely tied to the stock market, may also experience a selloff.

Historically, recessions have led to significant stock market declines, with the 2008 financial crisis resulting in a 38% drop in the S&P 500. A similar decline could be experienced if a recession occurs.

Crypto markets have also been impacted by economic downturns, with the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic leading to a significant decline in crypto prices. A US recession could lead to a similar decline, as investors seek to reduce risk.

Investors and traders are advised to exercise caution and monitor market trends closely, as a recession could lead to significant market volatility. Diversification and risk management strategies may be necessary to mitigate potential losses.

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Polymarket Bets 10% on 2024 US Recession, Analyst Skeptical of Rate Cut’s Impact
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The prediction market Polymarket and CME’s Fedwatch tool suggest that a rate cut during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September is highly likely.

However, BCA Research’s chief asset allocation strategist, Garry Evans, argues that even if rates are lowered, it won’t stop a recession in the United States. On the flip side, […]

There’s a good chance the U.S. Federal Reserve will slash the federal funds rate at the September FOMC meeting and the chances of a 25 basis points (bps) slash is the most likely. CME’s Fedwatch tool gives the 25bps odds a 76% chance as of Aug. 25, 2024. However, while rate cuts may be on the cards, BCA Research’s chief asset allocation strategist, Garry Evans believes the cuts won’t help avoid a recession.

Every single one of us now believes there’s a recession, and that’s exactly the opposite of what the market believes. There’s a very strong narrative out to the market that we’re facing a soft landing. We don’t believe that. We see signs that the economy is turning down.

Recent indicators, such as the Sahm Rule, which is known for its accuracy in predicting the signs of a recession, have started to blink red. Garry Evans isn’t alone in raising concerns about a potential U.S. economic slump.

This week, “Rich Dad Poor Dad” author Robert Kiyosaki took to X to caution about the state of the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, Peter Schiff has also issued a warning, predicting a looming crisis for the U.S. dollar and an economic collapse on the horizon.

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