In our early years as a channel we used to do a lot of analyses on the similarities of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Gold (XAUUSD) and how Gold Cycles could help predict BTC's future prices. The latter is called the 'digital Gold' after all.
Going back to our roots, we present to you today our latest cross-cycle comparison between the two assets, which offers interesting insights. As you can see, the Cycles of those two aren't always aligned. The correlation tends to end when Gold peaks and when it bottoms.
As you can see since 2018, when Gold starts a Bull Cycle, Bitcoin tends to lag behind, still being on its Bear Cycle. Then the two converge and correlate until Gold peaks and start its Bear Cycle. That is still relatively early for Bitcoin's bullish trend, which remains on its Bull Cycle, in fact has around 1 year ahead of it. As a result, the two start to diverge again.
Based on this model, it appears that Gold's Bull Cycle has peaked and Bitcoin is entering (black circle) its last stage of its Bull Cycle, with a Parabolic Rally being prepared. Still not too late to buy the 'Digital Gold' on this Cycle.
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Filecoin (FILUSD) has been consolidating around its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the past 4 weeks and appears to be at the end of the Lower Highs pattern similar to the one in 2019/20.
Both patterns held FIL's historic Support Zone, printed identical 1W RSI Cup formations and the past pattern initiated a strong 1-year rally above the Symmetrical Resistance Zone once the Lower Highs broke. Essentially the Descending Triangle patterns are Accumulation Phases before the Bull Cycle's main rally.
As a result, even though one last test of the Support Zone is technically viable, the upside at this time is already considerably greater than the risk involved, so in our opinion it is worth going long and have a modest 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) Target at $19.00.
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Bitcoin ($BTC /USD) is echoing the legendary 2014-2017 cycle with remarkable precision, and all signs point to a significant bottom formation this week, setting the stage for a parabolic rally reminiscent of 2017. As the market closely mirrors the past, the possibility of Bitcoin surging to $200k or beyond by December 2025 is looking more promising than ever. Here’s why the next few days are crucial for anyone in the crypto space.

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🔄 Bitcoin’s Remarkable Cycle Replication: A Perfect Storm for a Parabolic Move

Bitcoin has followed the same trajectory as the 2014-2017 cycle almost perfectly. From the bearish lower highs to the accumulation phases above the key 1W MA50 (blue trend line), everything points toward the formation of the final bottom before an explosive move upward.

Looking back to 2016, the last significant accumulation phase above the MA50 marked the ideal buy opportunities before Bitcoin took off on its parabolic rally in 2017. This cycle is repeating with almost identical price action. Right now, we are in the same position as we were in early 2016—accumulating before the next major rally.

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📊 Key Indicators Showing Bitcoin is Prepped for a Parabolic Move

1W RSI (Relative Strength Index): The weekly RSI is showing similar behavior to January 2017, suggesting we are nearing the end of a pullback and the beginning of a pre-parabolic rally phase. Historically, when the RSI is in this range, Bitcoin is primed for a major price surge.

Cycle Comparison: After breaking key levels, Bitcoin seems to be mirroring the price action from 2017. If the pattern continues, the market will form the final bottom this week, before embarking on a continuous rally that could last well into December 2025.

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🔮 Price Projections: Can Bitcoin Hit $200K?

Fibonacci Extension: If Bitcoin follows the same price path as it did in December 2017, we could see the top form at the 7.0 Fibonacci extension from the cycle bottom. If this plays out, the price could skyrocket towards $200k and beyond—setting up one of the most explosive crypto rallies of this decade.

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🧐 What Does This Mean for Traders and Investors?

This week is pivotal for Bitcoin. If the bottom is confirmed and respected, the market is likely to begin a massive upward trend, pushing towards all-time highs and setting the foundation for another parabolic rise. Traders should keep an eye on support levels, especially around the $26k to $28k range, as this could be the ideal buying opportunity before the next rally.

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💥 Bitcoin’s Bullish Momentum is Building

With the market sentiment starting to shift, and indicators lining up in a similar fashion to 2017, Bitcoin is on the cusp of a major breakout. If you’ve been watching this cycle closely, now could be the perfect time to position yourself for what could be the next great crypto rally.

🚨 Watch for key signals this week—Bitcoin’s path to $200k might just be starting.

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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to repeat the 2014 - 2017 Cycle in great detail. So far besides the Bear Cycle Lower Highs that broke only after the Cycle bottom was priced, BTC has respected the replicated the two Accumulation phases above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is 2016 marked the last long-term buy opportunities before the market went on a Parabolic Rally in 2017.
As you can see, even the 1W RSI suggests that in relative terms we are in a pre-parabolic run pull-back similar to January 2017. There are high probabilities that this week is the one that forms the new bottom that will push the market to a continuous rally towards December 2025.
If the top is priced on the 7.0 Fibonacci extension from the Cycle bottom, as it did on December 2017, then we can expect to see at least $200k.
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