January 23 is destined to be an extraordinary day. First, in the early morning, Grayscale ETF drove the market to fall, falling below the important support of 40,000 points, and reached the 395 bull-bear line in the short term; in the evening, affected by the negative impact of Okx, emotions superimposed, and the market fell below. 395, pushing down towards the second level support level of 385, the copycats generally plummeted, and the overall decline far exceeded the market; at the same time, the US stock market is about to open at night, and the ETF market is expected to drive new selling pressure. In short, misfortune never comes singly, and the mood is out of control! Here, we remind you to be calm when there is a big rise, and to calm down your emotions when there is a big fall. Otherwise, it is easy to make more mistakes in the operation. Do a review analysis first. 1. Why did it fall? Bad news 1. The major exchange okx’s 50% cut of the needle insertion incident was affected by the lawsuit of the online currency ice. In my opinion, this is not a major event and is not a long-term negative. It is just a news demand for technical short selling. 2. The continuous selling pressure on the Grayscale ETF disk is said to be the selling pressure that actually repays FTX's debt. 11 EFTs are coming in and out, and the total disk funds are inflowing. 3. Mentougou suddenly jumped out and said that he would sell 200,000 Bitcoins to repay debts. One wave after another, it seems to be taking advantage of the situation. If there is really selling pressure, they will jump out and say it, which is obviously a bearish call. 2. These are the bad news for predicting the market outlook. There is no high-level news. One is that there are too many goods sold, and the other is a quarrel and lawsuit. News is often used to match technical trends and normal callbacks. From the support point of view, we mentioned three before, and they are all well-founded. 395 is the short-term bull-bear line, 385 is the pressure level of the previous wave and is now the second support level, and the third support level is 368 at the weekly level. It is also nearby the chip gathering zone of the previous consolidation period. Can 385 last and for how long? This depends on the thickness of the negative sentiment that continues to accumulate. If there are more calm people, they will hold on for a while. At the same time, it depends on whether the institutional level continues to release news and take the opportunity to continue to kill the bulls, causing despair. The feeling of despair is that the price has fallen so badly that no one talks about buying the bottom anymore. Generally speaking, copycats have experienced large declines and have a high proportion of panic. Most of them have already broken their positions, but they have a high chance of falling early and their downward momentum will be sharply reduced. 3. How do leeks save themselves? 1. I have repeatedly emphasized that spot is king and long-term is gold. I rarely see a contract go to the end. This is a problem of human nature, unless you have no human nature.Even if you like short-term trading, with 90% spot trading and 10% contract trading, you still have a trump card if you lose, and you won’t lose your big chips. 2. Regarding sector selection, we mentioned earlier that we should not buy a single bet when dividing baskets, and proposed a 4321 position allocation plan (the allocation can also be optimized based on own funds and risk preferences). You can read my compositions in the past few days. The first echelon is Bit and Ether, the second echelon is the mainstream public chain with market value that crosses the bull and bear market, the third echelon is high-narrative technological innovation track coins such as the L2 layer, etc., and the fourth echelon is other popular concepts, local dog zero zero Scattered, short-term and medium-term currencies that can rise rapidly. The advantages of this configuration can be seen today. 3. Regarding how to build a position, we proposed the 235 step-by-step method of building a position, and we gave a "buying the bottom + picking up the pin" plan for the pin market. Buy big when there is a big drop, buy small when there is a small drop. A callback is an opportunity to build a position, but in order to prevent If you are copying on the mountainside, in order to prevent shortfalls, you must be prepared with both hands to control the position. In summary, according to the 235 step-by-step position (for each coin), copy the bottom to consolidate supported coins and connect the big pins of high-quality coins. Sell when you're crazy, buy when you're in panic! Scientifically control and build positions, continue to increase chips, clear away the fog, and find the truth about winning! Pay attention to new strategies and don’t get lost in investing!
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