š„ The launch of the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States has been met with great enthusiasm by investors, who poured billions of dollars into the products on their debut day. However, the impact of these ETFs on the supply and demand of Bitcoin on the crypto exchanges seems to be negligible so far.
š According to data from CoinMarketCap, the total amount of Bitcoin available on the crypto exchanges was about 2,000 BTC less on Jan. 11, 2024, compared to the previous day (2.907 million versus 2.909 million). However, this was still higher than the 2.904 million recorded on Jan. 10, 2024, the day before the ETFs were approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
This suggests that the ETFs have not significantly reduced the supply of Bitcoin on the crypto exchanges, as some analysts had predicted. Instead, the ETFs seem to be attracting new investors who buy Bitcoin from the existing holders, rather than from the exchanges. This is evident from the fact that the net increase in BTC held by the ETFs on Jan. 11, 2024, was roughly in line with the 2,000 BTC decrease on the exchanges.
Therefore, we can use the data of the daily change in BTC on the exchanges as an indicator of how the supply of Bitcoin on the crypto exchanges varies, as well as a proxy for how many BTC leave the crypto exchanges to go to the ETFsā cold wallets. Moreover, it is unlikely that banks already have BTC in their hands exposing themselves to unnecessary risks, as they would have to comply with strict regulations and disclosure requirements.
š However, the ETFs have had a positive effect on the price and sentiment of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. The price of BTC briefly approached $49,000 and Ether (ETH) hit a 12-month high on Jan. 11, 2024, when the ETFs boosted the demand and legitimacy of the crypto space. The total value of the cryptocurrency market now stands at $1.78 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.š Since then, however, the price of BTC has dropped to about $42,000 and Ether (ETH) to about $2,200, showing some volatility and uncertainty. The total value of the cryptocurrency market now is about $1.5 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.
The ETFs are also expected to increase the liquidity and efficiency of the crypto market, as they provide a convenient and regulated way for investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without having to deal with the technical and security challenges of owning and storing the digital asset. The ETFs are also likely to reduce the volatility and premium of other Bitcoin-related products, such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which trades on the over-the-counter market.
The SECās approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs was a historic moment for the crypto industry, as it marked the end of a long and arduous process that began in 2013, when the first Bitcoin ETF proposal was filed. Since then, the SEC has rejected or delayed dozens of applications, citing concerns over market manipulation, fraud, custody, and investor protection.
š¦ā However, the SECās stance changed under the leadership of Gary Gensler, who took office as the chairman of the regulator in April 2023. Gensler, a former MIT professor who taught courses on blockchain and digital currencies, signaled his openness to approving a Bitcoin ETF that met the SECās standards and expectations. He also expressed his preference for a spot Bitcoin ETF over a futures-based one, which was the opposite of his predecessor Jay Clayton.
The SECās approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs has also opened the door for other crypto-related ETFs, such as those based on Ether, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, and other digital assets. The SEC is currently reviewing several applications for these products, and some analysts expect them to be approved in the near future.
āā The crypto market is undergoing a major transformation, as the ETFs bring more mainstream adoption, innovation, and regulation to the space. The ETFs are also creating new opportunities and challenges for the existing and potential players in the crypto ecosystem, such as exchanges, custodians, brokers, miners, and developers. The ETFs are not only changing the way people invest in Bitcoin, but also the way Bitcoin interacts with the world.
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