The crypto community is bracing for a major event on March 1, 2025, as 11.2 million Solana (SOL) tokens are set to be unlocked from the FTX bankruptcy auction. With institutional buyers like Galaxy Digital, Pantera Capital, and Figure involved, this release has the potential to shake up Solana’s market dynamics. Let's break down the key details and analyze the unrealized profits these firms stand to make at the current price of $130 per SOL.
Who Bought the Locked SOL?
During FTX’s bankruptcy proceedings, 41 million SOL tokens were auctioned off in various tranches to institutional investors:
Galaxy Digital: 25.52 million SOL at $64 per token
Pantera Capital: 13.67 million SOL at $95 per token
Figure: 1.8 million SOL at $102 per token
These tokens are subject to a four-year vesting schedule, meaning they will be gradually unlocked over time. The March 1, 2025 unlock will release 11.2 million SOL, with each buyer receiving a proportional share based on their holdings.
How Much SOL Will Each Firm Unlock?
The 11.2 million SOL release will be distributed as follows:
Galaxy Digital: ~6.96 million SOL (62.2% of the total SOL sold)
Pantera Capital: ~3.73 million SOL (33.3%)
Figure: ~0.49 million SOL (4.4%)
Unrealized Profits at $130 per SOL
At today’s price of $130 per SOL, here’s how the unrealized profits break down for each firm:
Galaxy Digital (Bought at $64, unlocking 6.96M SOL):
Profit per SOL: $130 - $64 = $66
Total Unrealized Profit: $66 × 6.96M = $459.36M
Pantera Capital (Bought at $95, unlocking 3.73M SOL):
Profit per SOL: $130 - $95 = $35
Total Unrealized Profit: $35 × 3.73M = $130.55M
Figure (Bought at $102, unlocking 0.49M SOL):
Profit per SOL: $130 - $102 = $28
Total Unrealized Profit: $28 × 0.49M = $13.72M
Total Unrealized Profit
When we add up the unrealized profits from all three firms, we get a total of $603.63 million—a massive sum for just this one release. If these institutional buyers decide to sell immediately at $130 per SOL, this will be their unrealized profit from the March 1 unlock alone.
What Does This Mean for the Market?
With over $600 million in unrealized profits on the table, the big question is whether these institutional investors will sell the unlocked tokens immediately, potentially creating selling pressure. Historically, large unlock events often cause volatility in the market, but they don’t always result in a price drop—especially if demand from other buyers is strong enough to absorb the newly unlocked supply.
The key takeaway here is that this unlock could be a pivotal moment for Solana, and how these institutions choose to act will likely influence the market’s direction.
Will Solana Absorb the Impact Smoothly?
Given the large profits at play and the size of this unlock, there’s potential for some price fluctuations. However, it’s possible that demand from both retail and institutional buyers could help absorb the unlocked supply, stabilizing Solana’s price.
As we approach March 1, 2025, the crypto community will be keeping a close eye on the market to see how these institutional holders decide to play their hand.
What do you think? Will this unlock lead to a price dip, or will Solana absorb the impact without issue? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!
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