#分享您对BTC的看法 Deep Seek's analysis of Bitcoin is very professional and reliable.
1. **Short-term volatility and risk of divergence between volume and price**
Despite the rebound in prices, recent trading volume has shown signs of shrinking, and there has been a phenomenon of divergence between volume and price. For example, when the price of Bitcoin rose on February 20, trading volume fell, and the William indicator showed overbought, which usually indicates a high probability of a correction or sideways consolidation. The current key support level is at $95,000, and the resistance level is between $100,000 and $105,000. We need to pay attention to the sustainability of the breakthrough.
2. **Institutional demand and macro policy support**
The participation of institutional investors is still an important driving force. Asset management companies such as BlackRock continued to increase their holdings of Bitcoin during the market correction. The popularity of spot ETFs and the Trump administration's expectations of regulatory relaxation (such as simplifying the regulatory process for digital assets) have injected confidence into the market. Standard Chartered Bank predicts that if institutional funds continue to flow in, Bitcoin may reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, and it is expected to rise to $500,000 in the long term.
3. **Technical aspects and cycle signals**
The historical halving cycle shows that Bitcoin usually reaches its peak about 480 days after the halving (expected in the summer of 2025). After the current price rebounded from the low point at the beginning of the year, it is still testing the key moving average resistance. If it stands above $90,000, the bulls may dominate the subsequent trend. AI forecasts point out that institutional buying demand in March may further support prices, and supply tightening may occur in April.
4. **Macroeconomic and policy risks**
Inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and geopolitical conflicts are still potential disturbances. The strengthening of the US dollar index (DXY) may suppress the performance of risky assets, and the Trump administration's tariff policy may increase market volatility if it triggers trade frictions.
**Summary**: Bitcoin faces technical adjustment pressure in the short term, but in the long term, driven by institutional demand, favorable policies and halving cycles, there is still room for upward movement. Investors need to pay attention to changes in trading volume and the breakthrough of the $100,000 resistance level, and be wary of sudden impacts of macroeconomic and regulatory dynamics.
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