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Today’s the day.

Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th President of the United States is the culmination of months on the campaign trail and almost $200 million in donations from the crypto industry to influence the outcome of the November vote.

Industry talking heads have extolled the election results as a preamble of “the golden age of crypto.” They bank on the hope that Trump will deliver on his trove of pro-crypto campaign promises.

“We can expect more defined regulatory frameworks and a greater willingness from some to collaborate with the crypto sector,” Rebecca Rettig, chief legal and policy officer of Polygon Labs, told DL News in November.

Trump’s election win drove the market euphoria, pushing Bitcoin to a $109,000 record in January. Analysts say his presidency will drive crypto markets even higher — potentially as high as $1 million.

The Trump effect has already pushed Bitcoin to become the eighth most valuable asset in the world, overtaking silver.

However, legal experts and industry watchers tell DL News that they doubt Trump will keep his word.

“I don’t think Trump believes in crypto, or even is interested in crypto,” David Yermack, a finance professor at Leonard N. Stern School of Business who teaches courses on corporate law and cryptocurrencies, told DL News in November.

“He was interested in getting libertarian support, and now that the election’s over, his commitment to this is probably going to be pretty quickly forgotten as soon as there’s trouble.”

With Trump’s inauguration today, the industry is looking for signs that he’ll keep his promises. He’s promised to sign a blizzard of executive orders on day one of his presidency.

However, analysts warn that a failure to deliver on his crypto promises could drag Bitcoin down to $80,000.

Here are eight pro-crypto promises Trump’s made.

Free Ross Ulbricht

Trump has promised to free Silk Road operator Ross Ulbricht from prison.

Ulbricht was sentenced to life in prison in 2015. He was convicted of creating and operating Silk Road, a darknet marketplace where criminals traded over $200 million worth of illegal drugs and other activities using cryptocurrencies.

For some, Ulbricht was a crypto pioneer. To them, his imprisonment represents unjust governmental overreach akin to how some view international prosecutors’ pursuit of crypto mixer Tornado Cash’s founders and developers.

For others, Ulbricht is simply a criminal with blood on his hands. If that camp becomes more vocal, that will make it tricky for Trump to pardon Ulbricht, Yermack argued.

“I’m not optimistic,” he said.

Bettors on crypto-gambling site Polymarket give it 84% chance that Ulbricht will be pardoned in Trump’s 100 first days.

Fire Gensler

Securities and Exchange Chair Gary Gensler made himself unpopular among crypto pundits by spearheading a crackdown that saw the regulator file lawsuits against industry players like Ripple, Kraken and Coinbase.

So the industry cheered Trump in July when he promised to fire Gensler if reelected.

Following the election, the SEC boss took the decision out of Trump’s hands when he volunteered to quit on January 20.

Bitcoin national reserve

Trump has promised to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

He is not the only one. In July, Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced the Bitcoin Act of 2024 to establish a reserve that holds 200,000 Bitcoins, worth $2.1 billion in today’s prices.

After Trump’s November 5 win, Lummis expressed her enthusiasm, tweeting: “We are going to build a strategic Bitcoin reserve.”

Lower interest rates

In August, Trump promised to cut interest rates if elected. This would be good for Bitcoin. Lower rates incentivises investors to tap riskier assets like equities and crypto.

That’s partly why the price of Bitcoin jumped when the Federal Reserve slashed rates in September and November.

The Fed sets interest rates independently from the White House, so it’s unclear whether Trump will have the power to force the central bank to slash rates.

Kill ‘Operation Chokepoint 2.0′

During the July Bitcoin Conference, Trump promised to create a Bitcoin and crypto presidential advisory council.

“Their task will be to design transparent regulatory guidance for the benefit of the entire industry, and they will get it done in 100 days,” Trump said. “We will have regulations, but from now on, the rules will be written by people who love your industry, not hate your industry.”

Trump also pledged to “immediately shut down Operation Chokepoint 2.0,” a term popularised by crypto talking heads. It refers to the Biden administration’s alleged attempt to pressure banks into severing ties with crypto clients.

Protect self-custody

During the same Bitcoin Conference speech, Trump also promised to “always defend the right to self-custody.”

The idea is that, by holding their private keys, Bitcoin holders can mitigate some of the risks associated with entrusting their funds with third parties, such as exchanges and custodians.

Crypto industry pundits have lamented regulators charging different industry entities as an attack on self-custody.

US-mined Bitcoin

Following a June meeting with Bitcoin miners, Trump posted: “We want all the remaining Bitcoin to be made in the USA!!!”

While industry reps said the proposal gave hope to a beleaguered industry, others wondered how Trump could feasibly make that a reality.

“Which power grids are going to support that? Who is going to pay for the subsidies to lure those miners in in the first place?” Alex de Vries, a data scientist at De Nederlandsche Bank and longtime critic of Bitcoin mining, told DL News in June. “It would cost a lot of taxpayer money to make this happen.”

No digital dollar

In January 2024, Trump joined a slew of Republican lawmakers and crypto-pundits in rejecting the idea of a US central bank digital currency.

“This would be a dangerous threat to freedom, and I will stop it from coming to America,” Trump said.

“Such a currency would give the federal government absolute control over your money. They could take your money, and you wouldn’t even know it was gone.”

Eric Johansson is DL News’ News Editor. Got a tip? Email at eric@dlnews.com.

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