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Bitcoin (BTC) is currently holding on to the important horizontal support of $96,000. Will the price drop through and dip to the low 90K region, or is the next move a spike to the upside? The boring sideways price movement of the last couple of weeks may just be the calm before the storm.

Peace in Ukraine could provide boom to markets 

The global political and macro economic environment are just as uncertain as they have continued to be over these last few years. However, in Ukraine, the chances of peace have increased dramatically as new US President Donald Trump goes ahead with talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, while the European Union is left fuming on the sidelines.

Should the peace actually come into being, the markets could go into a boom that may last into the end of 2025. Beyond that, uncertainty would likely reign once more, as long as deep economic and monetary issues remain unsolved.

For the price of Bitcoin, this particular scenario could not be better. If the 4-year cycle does run its course, although there is no guarantee this will play out, the $BTC price would be coming to a peak at some time in Q4 this year.

So what about the current depressed price action for Bitcoin? As far as markets go, this is absolutely normal. The spike up to $109,000 needed to be absorbed by the market, and this is still ongoing. That said, the price may be reaching the stage where there is a further drop, or where a pivot back to the upside takes place.

$BTC breaks out of wedge, but price subdued

Source: TradingView

Looking at the short-term 4-hour chart, it can be seen that the price has managed to pull out of the descending wedge. However, non-existent volume has meant that the $BTC price is just meandering above the top trendline of the wedge. 

The good news for bulls is that the very important horizontal support at $96,000 is holding firm so far. The Stochastic RSI at the bottom of the chart has just experienced a cross-up, and the 8-hour is also at the bottom. If the price goes up from here, $100,000 is the target for the bulls, given that this is the next resistance, and getting above this would mean a higher high, and the chance of reversing this current local downtrend.

Weekly chart shows the important $BTC levels

Source: TradingView

Zooming out into the weekly time frame shows the most important horizontal support and resistance lines. The current weekly candle perfectly fills the space between the $96,000 support, and the $97,000 resistance. If there is to be a change in this local downtrend, closing a candle above $97,300 would be the first step. On the other hand, a candle close below $96,000 would leave the bears still in control.

At the bottom of the chart, the Stochastic RSI on the weekly shows that the indicators are bottoming. As soon as they do, and there is a cross up of the blue indicator line over the red, this could signal that big upside price momentum is on its way.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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