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Tom Lee, managing partner of Fundstrat Global Advisors, predicts that if a Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) is approved, Bitcoin could see significant growth ahead of the halving event in 2024. be Li's research note suggests that the approval of the Bitcoin ETF could boost the price of Bitcoin and push the price to $140,000-$180,000 by April next year.
This prediction is based on probabilities provided by Sean Farrell, cryptocurrency analyst at Fundstrat. Farrell believes that the approval of the Bitcoin ETF will lead to a 5x increase in daily demand for Bitcoin. The current Bitcoin market is in balance with $25 million in block rewards and $25 million in daily demand. If the $25 billion demand for the Bitcoin ETF is realized in the first year, it will add $100 million to the daily demand for the currency, bringing the total demand to $125 million, while the daily supply remains at $25 million. This increase in demand could push the implied equilibrium price of Bitcoin to the range of $140,000 to $180,000 before the halving event in April 2024.
Lee also notes that the likelihood of a Bitcoin Cash ETF being approved in the US has increased due to actions by asset management firm BlackRock. BlackRock, the world's largest investment firm, recently submitted an application for a Bitcoin ETF, which could make approval of such ETFs more likely.
