Last Friday, macroeconomic data in the United States performed poorly. The one-year inflation rate expectation for May rose from 3.2% to 3.5%. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index showed weakness, dropping to 67.4. This offset the positive impact of recent soft employment data on market risk sentiment. The yield on the ten-year US Treasury briefly rose above the 4.5% mark, while the two-year yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate policies, climbed to 4.853%. Risk assets showed relative stability, with the three major US stock indices showing mixed performance. The Dow and S&P both closed slightly up by 0.32% and 0.16% respectively, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.03%. The focus of the market this week will be on the CPI data released on Wednesday, which could become a key driver of mid-term price trends.
Source：Investing
In terms of cryptocurrency, at the beginning of the week, BTC started strongly, with short-term breakthroughs reaching above the 63,000 mark. Implied volatility at the front end showed a significant increase, especially on May 17, influenced by CPI uncertainty, forming a local IV peak. Investors are closely watching for signs of cooling in consumer prices, which could drive market speculation in digital currencies and other risky assets. However, on the other hand, a poor inflation report could also trigger concerns among traders about economic overheating, potentially leading to a decline in cryptocurrency prices.
Source: TradingView
Two things worth noting here. According to reports from Cryptonews, the Japanese investment advisory firm Metaplanet has explicitly stated in its declaration a “Bitcoin-first, Bitcoin-only” strategy. They are offering long-term yen loans and periodic stock issuances as financial solutions, emphasizing that this is to continuously accumulate more Bitcoin rather than holding onto the increasingly weak yen.
The other matter concerns the US presidential election. Recent moves by the Biden administration to strengthen regulation on digital currencies have stirred discontent among investors. Billionaire Mark Cuban, a supporter of current US President Biden, has made a sudden turnaround. He believes that under Biden’s leadership, the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Gary Gensler, has failed to protect investors, making it “nearly impossible for legitimate cryptocurrency companies to operate.” Cuban has warned that if the opposition to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies continues, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is likely to win the 2024 presidential election. In fact, Trump’s attitude toward Bitcoin has recently made a 180-degree turn. In 2019, he publicly stated his dislike for Bitcoin, but during a recent event at Mar-a-Lago, he openly told attendees, “If you support cryptocurrency, you better vote for Trump,” causing quite a stir in the community. This statement has been described by the American media outlet Politico as “a new weapon against Biden,” and the development of digital currency policies will play an increasingly important role in the upcoming election.
Source: Deribit （As of 13 MAY 8:00 UTC）
Source: SignalPlus
Data Source: Deribit, The overall distribution of BTC & ETH tradings
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
