In the U.S., Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has assured since the beginning of this year that rate cuts in 2024 were gradually fading away last week, as he clearly communicated to the market that interest rates will remain high for a longer period. Moreover, he is not the only one in the Fed who has shifted his stance. The Fed’s notable dove, Goolsbee, not only thinks it makes sense to “wait” before cutting rates but also strongly stated, “Nothing is off the table if needed,” when asked about the possibility of a rate hike. Treasury yields have hovered near recent highs, with the rate-sensitive two-year yield maintaining close to the 5% mark, currently at 4.993%. Looking at the macro perspective this week, the Fed’s favored PCE index will be released on Friday, but unfortunately, Powell will not be able to comment on it this Friday, as the Fed has already entered the quiet period before the next FOMC meeting.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar, This week, the Fed’s favored PCE index will be released

Source: Investing, The two-year yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate policies, remains near the critical level of 5%

In terms of digital currency, the BTC halving was completed smoothly, and the market did not stir up any waves. Most trading views were fully priced-in before the event. After the fluctuations reflected in the hourly chart gradually weakened, a breakthrough was successfully achieved during the Asian Stock Market trading hours, challenging the $66,000 resistance level.

Source: TradingView

In terms of futures, leveraged funds have not yet entered the market. The funding rate levels derived from the weighted positions of major exchanges are oscillating around the zero axis. On OKX, the premium of futures on several key delivery dates is maintained at approximately 10 to 12% (approximately equivalent to a perpetual contract funding rate of 1 bp).

Source: Coinglass

Source: SignalPlus, OKX futures

In terms of ETFs, the Bitcoin ETF finally ended its five consecutive days of net outflows, with the top ETFs receiving capital injections on the 19th, while the outflows from GBTC also showed a gradual declining trend.

Source: Farside Investors

Source: Deribit （As of 22 APR 8:00 UTC）

In terms of options, on the one hand, we see that the current volatility curve has broken the previously inverted pattern, but the overall slope remains relatively flat; at the same time, the front-end Vol Skew has returned from its previous low to a relatively flat position, with the 25 dRR near the median of the past three months.

Source: SignalPlus

Source: SignalPlus, Vol skew returns to normal level

Option trading volumes have remained relatively low since halving, which includes the impact of generally lower liquidity on weekends. In the case of ETH, the purchase of bullish options ranging from K= 3550 to 3700 in April, amounting to tens of thousands, was deemed as reducing positions, possibly closing out profits in Theta and Vega, or it could be a de-leveraging action taken under the unclear circumstances of current geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions and post-halving price trends. For BTC, bearish option purchases occurred at the $59,000 support level at the end of April, and a large number of bearish options sales below this support level (57000/58000) also appeared at the end of May.

Source: Laevitas

Data Source: Deribit，BTC & ETH transaction distribution

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade