According to Odaily, Hitesh Malviya, the founder of crypto analysis platform DYOR, has predicted that the fair FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) of LayerZero (ZRO) will be between $5.3 billion and $9.7 billion based on on-chain usage data analysis. Malviya compared LayerZero with Axelar Network for relative valuation, as both are building infrastructure for cross-chain communication.
Axelar, which operates more like a B2C platform, serves as both a communication platform and an asset transfer infrastructure, earning money by directly charging users AXL. This provides strong value capture for AXL. On the other hand, LayerZero operates more like a B2B2C, managing communication while asset transfers are typically handled by independent bridges like Stargate. It is still unclear how LayerZero will generate revenue.
Malviya's best guess is that it might involve some models around OFT and protocols built on LayerZero. ZRO could potentially be used as a payment token by protocols built on LayerZero. LayerZero also has a validator network called Relayers, so if they plan to further decentralize, they might introduce staking services.
Currently, GMP is a key metric for Axelar, including messages and asset transfers. It processes about 4,000 GMP daily, totaling about 120,000 GMP in the past 30 days, with its FDV reaching $885 million. Messages are also a key metric for LayerZero. They process 44,000 messages daily, 11 times the volume processed by Axelar. Its FDV might also be in the same range, 6-11 times higher than Axelar's FDV. Therefore, this number is estimated to be between $5.3 billion and $9.7 billion.