A few days ago, BTC crashed below $60K causing panic among the holders
People started assuming that the bull market is over and BTC is heading towards $50K and lower
Let's look at the facts which suggests that $58.5K was the bottom 👇
1) Bitcoin RSI Bottom
⭐️After the recent BTC dump to $58.5K, the Bitcoin weekly RSI reached an 8-month low.
⭐️ Last time the Bitcoin weekly RSI was this low, BTC was trading at $28,000, and the big reversal started.
2) MVRV below 1
⭐️ MVRV ratio, or Market value to Realized value ratio, went below 1, which has often signaled the bottom during a bull market.
⭐️ This shows that the capitulation is near and the bottom is in
3) June bottom history
⭐️ BTC has made a bottom in June for the last 4 years.
▪️ In 2020, BTC bottomed at $9k.
▪️ In 2021, BTC bottomed at $29,500.
▪️ In 2022, BTC made a local bottom at $19,000.
▪️ In 2023, BTC bottomed at ~ $24,900.
⭐️ The recent BTC drop below $59K suggests that history will repeat itself again.
4) OI down, funding reset
⭐️ Bitcoin OI is down 20% after the recent crash, and the funding has turned negative.
⭐️ This suggests that retail greed has been flushed out, which makes the market more healthy.
Often times, these scenarios start the pump with short liquidations, which result in an even bigger pump.
But what about the dump?
⭐️ Mt. Gox dump will start soon and the US and German Government is dumping already
⭐️ To be clear, Mt. Gox distribution will begin in July but won't complete till Q4
⭐️ Also, all the participants who will receive BTC won't dump it as we're in a bull market
⭐️ In the case of the US Government and the German Government dump, the selling magnitude is very low and not enough to nuke the market.
⭐️ BTC can easily absorb 4K–5K BTC selling pressure, so it won't be a big problem.
⭐️ IMO, BTC hitting $50K seems highly unlikely unless there's a war or any other black swan event.
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Thank you :)