Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading within a $5,500 range, struggling to break past $84,000 resistance.
Macroeconomic uncertainty and Trump’s trade policies are weakening risk asset demand.
Funding rates remain neutral, signaling indecisiveness among traders.
BTC price is stuck below the 200-day SMA, a key technical resistance level.
Bitcoin Struggles Amid Economic Uncertainty
Bitcoin’s price has been consolidating between $78,599 and $84,000 since March 9, as shown by Cointelegraph Markets Pro and Bitstamp data. This prolonged flat trading reflects increasing economic and geopolitical concerns, limiting Bitcoin’s upside momentum.
Key Reasons Bitcoin Remains Stagnant:
Trump’s Trade War Tensions and Market Uncertainty
The Biden-Trump trade war narrative has returned, with proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada causing investor caution.
Global markets are on edge due to inflation risks and potential retaliation from trading partners.
Historically, Bitcoin has been seen as a hedge during economic turmoil, but current macro pressures are suppressing risk appetite.
Weakening Bitcoin Demand
Glassnode data indicates that BTC demand is fading, with short-term holders (1w–1m) reducing their exposure.
The cost basis of 1w–1m holders has declined below 1m–3m holders, signaling a net outflow of capital.
Bitcoin’s rally after Trump’s November election victory has lost steam, mirroring broader economic concerns.
Glassnode analysts commented:
"This reversal indicates that macro uncertainty has spooked demand, reducing new inflows… and suggests that new buyers are now hesitant to absorb sell-side pressure, reinforcing the shift from post-ATH euphoria into a more cautious market environment."
Futures Data Shows Indecisive Market Sentiment
Another indicator of Bitcoin's stagnation is the neutral funding rates in perpetual futures contracts.
Funding rates across exchanges hover near 0%, signaling a lack of conviction from both bulls and bears.
Without strong speculative activity, Bitcoin struggles to gain upward momentum.
Glassnode’s analysis on BTC futures funding rates:
"The lack of a clear funding rate direction suggests traders are hesitant to take significant long or short positions, keeping BTC price range-bound."
Technical Resistance Limits Bitcoin’s Upside
Bitcoin faces strong technical resistance at key moving averages:
March 9: BTC fell below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $83,736.
The 200-day SMA has since rejected Bitcoin’s breakout attempts, keeping BTC within its current range.
The 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $86,000 presents another hurdle for BTC bulls.
According to crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades, these indicators signal a mid-to-long-term trend shift:
“The 200-day SMA and 200-day EMA are solid indicators of the mid/long-term trend and overall market strength. Without a decisive close above them, Bitcoin could remain range-bound for an extended period.”
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
For BTC to break out of consolidation, key catalysts are needed:
Macroeconomic relief, such as a Fed rate cut, could reignite risk-on sentiment.
A decisive break above $84,000 and flipping it into support could trigger a rally.
If Bitcoin remains below the 200-day SMA, further consolidation or pullbacks toward $70,000 remain possible.
Until market uncertainty eases, Bitcoin’s price could stay trapped within this narrow range as traders await the next major catalyst, according to Cointelegraph.
