Great bulls always start unknowingly and grow in hesitation!
After each halving, Bitcoin experiences an adjustment period of about 6 months.
In 2016, it took 170 days to break the previous high after the halving.
In 2020, it took 197 days after the halving to break the previous high and initiate a bull market.
As of now, 170 days have passed since this halving in 2024.
Short-term bullish signs: if Bitcoin breaks through $70,000 and stabilizes, it may announce the official start of a new round of market activity.
Currently, market sentiment is improving, with prices stabilizing at $62,000 and signs of upward movement, but seasoned investors unanimously believe that a true bull market only begins after breaking $73,000.

Bitcoin has been falling for four consecutive days now, and the decline is not too large. The total drop in the four days is about 10%.

Everyone in the market has been looking for opportunities to increase their positions. In addition, the A-share market was quite crazy before the holiday, so some people began to worry about whether to increase their positions in A-shares or in Bitcoin. Is Bitcoin the last chance to get on board now, or is A-shares the last chance?

If we look a little further ahead, we can clearly see that the sentiment of A-shares has changed significantly, but the fundamentals have not changed. The fundamentals of Bitcoin have also not changed. One is the bad part that has not changed, and the other is the good part that has not changed.

In the world of cryptocurrencies, some individuals stand out in the wave of Bitcoin due to their unique vision and persistent dedication.
V God is a household name, but there is another figure who has had a profound impact on millions of small retail investors.
He is AHR999, known as 'Jiu Shen',
Jiu Shen was originally named AHR999. Because his forum ID was recognized by the system as 'AHR999' and his profound understanding of Bitcoin, everyone began to refer to him as 'Jiu Shen'. His investment philosophy and strategy have earned him widespread influence in the cryptocurrency circle.

I think I have written at least two articles about Ethereum and SOL. Many people think that Ethereum is not doing well, mainly when compared with BTC and SOL.
To be honest, there is no need to compare it with BTC, they are totally on the same track. Jiushen said in "Hoarding Bitcoin" that for applications like Ethereum, you propose a 2.0 today, and he will come up with a 3.0 tomorrow, and someone will definitely come up with a 4.0 the day after tomorrow, so don't worry.
The original proposal for 2.0 applications was BTS. Where is it now? Applications must be fast, large, and fun. Such demands place endless demands on technology.

Yesterday morning, many students sent me messages, all of which were good news. Some said that it had reached a new high and they felt great to have a full position. Some said that their private teaching fees had been recovered several times. They sent me big smiling faces all over the screen, and I quickly took out my phone to take a look. Indeed, it had broken through the previous high of 73777 and even surged to 75,200 US dollars.
When I wrote the article the night before yesterday, the price was still 68,000 US dollars. When I posted the article at 6:28 yesterday morning, it reached 69,000 US dollars. Even if you finished reading yesterday's article at this time and took action immediately, you would still have a profit of nearly 10%. The price of the coin took off at about 8:05, which was about half an hour after I posted the article.

With the election still undecided and cryptocurrency prices fluctuating, this scene resembles the A-shares at the end of September. Once the direction is determined, a large influx of FOMO capital will enter, and the ChiNext Index and Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index, which usually fluctuate around 3%, directly surged 18% or even 20% to a limit up. This is an index; it's truly something to behold.
If Trump is elected smoothly, a 10% rise in Bitcoin in one day would not be surprising, shooting directly to around 76,000. What will you do then?
To get on board or not? If you don't, the price may never turn back. If you do, it might be a bit awkward since just the day before, the price was still below 70,000.

Recently, there has been an overwhelming amount of negative news; Bitcoin has dropped from $73,620 on October 30 to a low of $66,835 today, plummeting nearly 10% in four days.
What exactly is falling from the sky—flying knives or pies? Should we accept this price or not? How should we respond?

Let's first look at the news.

1. Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate "up and down" by at least 10% based on the results of the U.S. election.

Anonymous trader DaanCryptoTrades posted on X that Bitcoin's price could fluctuate by at least 10%, depending on which U.S. presidential candidate wins the election on November 5.
IGarkets analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in his investment report on November 4 that Bitcoin needs to "sustainably break" the resistance level of $74,000 to confirm an upward trend and may surge to $80,000.

The two most important elements in trading and investing are the asset and the position. Even if you select a hundredfold coin, if the position is very light, 1,000 yuan, even if it rises 100 times, it would only be 100,000 yuan, which still won't change much for you.
Bitcoin has risen 90 million times in 14 years, but if you have zero position, even if you knew early, it is still a waste now.
Someone proposed a strategy for catching hundredfold coins, which is to choose your top 100 favorites, buying 100 yuan each, totaling 10,000 yuan, and leave it untouched for two cycles to see. If one of these hundred is a hundredfold coin, you break even; if there are two, then you double your profit.

The price has been fluctuating up and down over 70,000 again, wearing out the patience and confidence of all investors. Is eight months really enough?
Once a new high is broken, like Musk's Starship starts ignition, the next moment will be the moment of soaring into the sky. If you are not in the car, you can only sit in front of the screen and watch.

In every bull market, there are a large number of people who miss out, and a large number of people who are greedy and chase high prices, all thinking that they can grasp it. But what you think is just what you think.

If most people can grasp the situation, who will the dog dealers make money from? The capital market does not produce wealth, it only redistributes wealth.

Recently, various communities in the circle have been quite active, with a common opinion being that Bitcoin is about to experience a significant correction, with some even directly stating it might crash below 60,000.
The reason is that the results of the election on November 5 are out. The current rise belongs to the early realization of expectations, similar to Bitcoin's halving; the day of expectation realization is also the day of bad news.

Indeed, logically it seems correct, and there are some truths. Upon careful consideration, many people often focus only on external news and information, neglecting the intrinsic nature of the asset itself.

No matter who is elected, even if it is determined to be bad news, that is only temporary FUD. If you are doing intraday trading, you may need to pay attention, but for us who hold long-term, there is no need to overly focus on news events happening in the market.

Those who make big money in Bitcoin are all those who wait, see the opportunity, and seize it in one go.
In the world of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, those who make big money seem to share a common trait: they are patient people who wait for opportunities.

They are not like those who are eager for quick success, blindly chasing every market fluctuation, but instead calmly observe, patiently wait, until their own opportunity arises.

I have a classmate, this person has very dark skin, and we all call him Blackie. He is an ordinary programmer, and he first heard about Bitcoin from me back in 2017, but he never really got involved.

After Bitcoin broke 70,000, it kept moving towards the historical high of 73,777. Once it passes the historical high, it is equivalent to the bull completely leaving the bull pen. Everyone is waiting for the dust to settle on the November 5 election, and then the dog dealer will do the opposite.
This round of bull market is very difficult, and few people will make money. We are currently at a crossroads for paying for cognition, and there are three reasons for this.

First, from a macro-cyclical perspective, the market is about to enter a turning point

From a cyclical perspective, everyone basically agrees that the fourth quarter, which is now, is the time when the bull market starts. In the early stage of the bull market, looking back at history, Bitcoin rose first, then Ethereum rose, and then rotated to the altcoins.

As of today, Bitcoin has reached 70,000 USD again, just as agreed; I am not surprised at all.

Once, I looked at the screen and saw the price had dropped a zero compared to now. Bitcoin was 7,000 USD, and I asked myself, is this worth 50,000 RMB?

I believe many people are also looking at the screen asking themselves the same question: is this worth 500,000 RMB?

I couldn't understand it at all. Following the principle of not buying what I don't understand, just like that, the 7,000 USD Bitcoin slipped past me.

Once, I had 410 ETH and sold it for 500,000. At that time, I was very happy, but now the price is dozens of times higher, and I can't buy it back. Once I made money, I withdrew it and exchanged it for RMB, and after a while, I would put it back into the crypto circle. It was easy to transfer in and out back then; I could do it freely without being blocked or frozen.

Let’s first look at the performance of ETH against BTC in recent months.

May 26th Bitcoin: $67,000, ETH: $3,800

July 30th Bitcoin: $67,000, ETH: $3,200

September 28th Bitcoin: $67,000, ETH: $2,600

October 27th: Bitcoin: $67,000, ETH: $2,500

If you say the above time is too short, only 5 months, well, let’s take a look at the ETH/BTC K-line in the past two years.
The figure below shows that the exchange rate of ETH to BTC began to fall in September 2022, and has continued for two years to date, with no sign of stopping the decline.

Late last night, the Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. Treasury has considered imposing sanctions on Tether, the issuer of stablecoin USDT.
This criminal investigation is led by the Manhattan U.S. Attorney's Office, focusing on whether USDT was used by third parties to fund illegal activities such as drug trafficking, terrorism, and hacking, or money laundering-related proceeds.
At the same time, the U.S. Treasury is considering imposing sanctions on Tether because USDT is widely used by individuals and groups sanctioned by the U.S., including the terrorist organization Hamas and Russian arms dealers.

Almost 70,000 for Bitcoin, is it expensive? Looking ahead, it's almost at the historical peak, indeed expensive.

Valentine's Day 2015, $259

Valentine's Day 2016, $404

Valentine's Day 2017, $1,010

Valentine's Day 2018, $8,518

Valentine's Day 2019, $3,610

Valentine's Day 2020, $10,221

Valentine's Day 2021, $46,941
Valentine's Day 2022, $42,248

Valentine's Day 2023, $21,808

Valentine's Day 2024, $51,800
Valentine's Day 2025, how much?? dollars
Definitely above 70,000 yuan.

Let's look at a set of data to see if Bitcoin is expensive right now.

Written before the arrival of the Bitcoin bull market!

In the world of digital currency, I feel like a fish in water, earning 100,000 a month seems almost effortless. My name is somewhat well-known in the circle, and every day, tens of thousands of dollars in transactions are completed under my strategic operations. The wealth growth brought by cryptocurrency has almost become a foreseeable daily routine for me.

However, behind this glamorous facade, I hide an unknown desire—I want to find a job delivering food.

Every day, when I issue the last trading order in front of my computer and close those complex charts and data analysis software, I always feel an inexplicable emptiness.

Financial markets are all the same; in the cryptocurrency world, only a few truly make money. This is an objective law that cannot be changed. Whether now or in the future, the crypto space will still be the same as today, with only a few people making money. In doing anything, one must pay attention to methods and approaches. There are several trading methods in the crypto space that have a higher probability of making money.

First, it’s about the high probability of making money and the odds, which is to hoard valuable coins. During a bear market, many retail investors overlook Bitcoin, complaining that the price increase is too small.

In the crypto space, honestly hoarding coins results in a growth rate of returns that far exceeds that of Buffett, with very high certainty, provided one holds onto valuable coins and waits for a major cycle of four years.

Aside from value storage, everything has already migrated to the internet! We are already in the early stages of the fourth phase, where value storage is shifting from fiat currency to cryptocurrency.
Whether you notice it or not, this process has already happened and is happening. Humanity is migrating to the internet, just as it is natural to migrate to a newly discovered continent.
The first phase is the large-scale migration of information flow.
The internet initially brought convenience in information exchange to people, from music sharing to news information. This process eliminated gramophones, tape recorders, CDs, broadcasting, and media. The internet encompasses all information flows.