The project financing information observed recently shows that many financing projects originate from the BTC ecosystem. At present, the elements visible in the BTC ecosystem include runes and inscriptions. Many Bitcoin ecological projects also have long-term benefits around Sats. The target areas of these projects are mainly DeFi, staking, lending and stablecoins.

In addition to the BTC ecosystem, the Base ecosystem has gradually become active and shown more dynamics. On the whole, the hot spots of this round of bull market may change rapidly, but the core may still be concentrated on the BTC and Solana ecosystems. In addition to the above two, Base may break out as a dark horse.

As for ETH, I personally hold a reserved attitude at present. In the past few years, most projects have been built on the Ethereum ecosystem. However, with the increase in the number of public chains and the emergence of new gameplay, ETH may face greater pressure in growth and innovation. The key is to see how it will break through this situation.

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Powell's reasons for signaling a rate cut are mainly as follows:

• Easing inflation pressure: The U.S. inflation rate is steadily falling back to the Fed's 2% target. The Fed's inflation rate indicator shows that the inflation rate has gradually declined from previous high levels, such as the peak of more than 7% in June 2022, to the recent 2.5%, lower than 3.2% a year ago. The reduction in inflationary pressure provides room for monetary policy adjustments, making rate cuts a possible policy option.

• Labor market changes: Although the U.S. unemployment rate recently reached 4.3%, triggering the "Sam's Law" that foreshadows an impending recession, Powell believes that the rise in unemployment is due to more people entering the labor market and slower hiring, rather than increased layoffs or a general deterioration in the labor market. And the labor market has cooled significantly from its previous overheated state. Powell said he does not want or welcome a further cooling of labor market conditions, which means that the downside risk of employment has increased, and monetary policy adjustments are needed to avoid a sharp rise in unemployment in order to achieve the Fed's goal of maintaining a strong labor market.

• Uncertainty in economic outlook: Although the US economy has not yet shown obvious signs of recession, there is a trend of gradual slowdown in economic growth, which may cause concerns about the future economic outlook. In order to cope with potential economic downturn risks, taking interest rate cuts in advance can provide certain support and stimulus to the economy and help stabilize economic growth. For example, the non-farm payrolls data and manufacturing ISM data released by the United States in July were significantly lower than market expectations, and the employment data was significantly revised down before, which increased the uncertainty of the economic outlook.

• Global economic situation and policy coordination: The global economy is interconnected, and the policy direction and economic conditions of other major economies will also have an impact on the United States. If global economic growth faces pressure, or other central banks adopt loose policies such as interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve may consider adjusting its own policies to adapt to the global economic situation and maintain policy coordination to avoid the United States being at a disadvantage in the global economic landscape.

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Over the weekend, don't look at new highs. The most basic thing is to give back 38.2% of the increase within 24 hours. If you step back to cover your position, you won't pull the average cost price too high. Don't chase the current price. Some people said in the morning that it was too strong and couldn't come down at all. Don't be too aggressive. Look at things from the perspective of change and development. A strong early trading does not mean that there will be no retracement after the midday trading. No matter how strong it is, it will not be easy to stand firm at 63,800. There will be a second chance of retracement later. Moreover, the starting point of the rise to around 65,000 this morning was around 60,666 last night, with an increase of more than 4,000 points. It is impossible not to step back.

A few days ago, I said that after breaking through the pressure, there will be a small unilateral rise (I thought it would only hype the expectation of interest rate cuts 1-2 weeks in advance, ignoring the time point of Powell's speech on August 23, and long positions were conservative. The current market is clear). It may fluctuate and rise slowly for 2-3 weeks. There are still short-term opportunities to encounter resistance and step back in the middle, but the market has turned to be dominated by the bulls, so we should focus on long positions and supplement them with high positions. For long positions, you can try to move up to 66600 and 68350 to stop profit at 75% in batches, and then chase the high with small positions.

The current rise is to digest the expectation of interest rate cut in September in advance, and the interest rate cut is basically 100% confirmed. When the interest rate cut is implemented on September 18, the market will start to fall sharply. Set an alarm and run in advance on September 17 to lock in the existing profits to avoid spitting. Generally, the middle of the third month of each quarter is a time for market changes, and the decline is to pave the way for a new wave of market in the next quarter. The opportunity to cover the spot position is in the middle and late next month. If the fourth quarter starts to take a unilateral upward trend, then there will be a greater need for a bigger adjustment in the middle and late September.

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Powell's Jackson Hole speech will begin tonight, and the global financial market is waiting with bated breath!

On August 23 at 10 a.m. Eastern Time (22:00 Beijing Time), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at Jackson Lake Lodge in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming. This is an annual feast for the global financial community. Last year, he spoke on Saturday, and this year he deliberately chose Friday, the hottest time for global trading. The deep meaning behind it is self-evident.

Bao Shifu's speech is undoubtedly the "main course" of this feast. From Bernanke's quantitative easing storm, to Yellen's in-depth analysis of the labor market, to Powell's deep insight into economic uncertainty and the "temporary inflation theory", this place witnessed the turning point of financial history.

The market generally expects Powell to officially announce the approach of the "golden moment" of interest rate cuts. A 25 basis point or 50 basis point interest rate cut? This is not only a number game, but also a heartbeat accelerator for the global financial market. The Federal Reserve strives for a smooth transition of the market, and it is best to usher in a slight rise in US stocks rather than sharp fluctuations.

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ETFs have changed everything:

The SEC rejected two Solana spot ETF 19b-4 applications submitted by Cboe BZX,

VanEck and 21Shares Solana ETF's 19b-4 forms were removed from the CBOE website as early as the 17th, which has a clear impact on the confidence of $SOL in the future.

What happened at the same time:

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have lost their self-sustaining narratives,

and are now completely subject to traditional financial (TradFi) buying. Unless there is a strong macro narrative to attract large institutional buyers, buying may continue to be weak.

In addition, the current price volatility in the crypto market is volatile and lacks a clear narrative. Coupled with the current stage of the US economic cycle, macro factors have become the main driver of market behavior. We have linked the cryptocurrency market to broader economic conditions, hoping that monetary easing policies will bring relief. Dependence on the macro economy means that we are more responsive to external forces rather than internal innovation or narratives, which makes the crypto market more susceptible to volatility driven by decisions outside the crypto field.

Whether Trump and Harris will fulfill their promises in the race is uncertain. In addition, whether the government will confiscate Bitcoin or some large Defi, L1, and L2 assets is also uncertain.

We are also not optimistic internally. Even if the ETF has been launched, we still expect traditional buying rather than active investment in ETFs. On the contrary, buyers continue to enter the Solana casino and are plundered by the community, psychology, and price manipulators of MEME coins.

You will find that even though MEME is hot, no exchange is willing to list them, whether it is celebrity MEME or animal MEME.

We urgently need a new narrative to explode: modularization, RWA, interoperability, re-staking AWS, and a new generation of L1.

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Only talk about the core important‼ ️ events
1: Recently, the market rose during the day and fell at night. BTC ETH will rebound to the low position 4 hours ago. The two points of 58500 and 57800 of Bitcoin and 2555 and 2515 of Ethereum can rebound. The recent high-selling and low-buying remain unchanged
2: TRX broke this year's high, Sun Ge is awesome, sunpump is a one-click meme hair platform. The platform charges a 1% handling fee for memes, directly deflates TRX, and generates long-term benefits, which is good for TRON-related currencies
3: dogs Binance and EURUSD are both listed. EURUSD is on the 23rd and Binance is on the 26th. Many studios have thousands or tens of thousands of accounts. The online selling pressure will be very large. The exchange recommends selling gradually
4: The US SEC rejected the spot ETF application for SOL yesterday. It is not a big problem. It will definitely be approved later
5: ETH on the exchange has fallen below 10%! The Mentougou address transferred out 12,000 BTC 2 hours ago, one good and one bad news #美联储何时降息？ #新币挖矿DOGS #新币挖矿TON

How to choose potential currencies?

① Play new, not old:
Avoid old tracks, such as BCH, FIL, EOS, YFI, AAVE, CRV, UNI, etc. These currencies have experienced gains and may not perform well in the new bull market.
Embrace new tracks, such as RWA, DePIN, Meme, AI, and the big cake ecosystem, and look for leading currencies.

② Pay attention to market value:
Currencies with too high market value have no multiple space and are not recommended for buying.
Currencies with too low market value have low trading activity and may be delisted, which is high risk.

③ Reasonable position management:
Don't invest all your funds in one currency to avoid high risks.
Allocate funds to different tracks, and choose 1-2 currencies for each track.
Sell them in the big bull market

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Some people say that BTC will reach 76,000 in September. From the current K-line level, I think it is almost impossible, or to be more precise, it is almost impossible to rise directly to 76,000 before reaching a low point lower than 49,000. Because the monthly line is a step-down structure, how can it be higher than the highest point of 73,000 in March? This logic is like none of us can go forward and backward.

73,800 in March is the ceiling of the current monthly trend, and the support below is 43,000. Without a needle test at 43,000, it is unlikely to go directly above 7w, and even 66,000 will be difficult to reach. Those who simply understand that the interest rate cut in September will cause a big surge are all simple leeks. At least for now, the 1-day MACD has not climbed to the zero axis, so what can it do to surge. When most people are looking at the interest rate cut, it will surge, can it really surge? This surge is conditional, there will be a surge only if there is a plunge! The main players of the institutions are all watching this time point, and they can easily beat you with unified actions in the short term.

If the market closes in the negative in August, it will close in the positive in September. Let's get through August, which is dominated by shorts!

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