Bitcoin Price Trends and Related Situations

• On Tuesday (December 3), Bitcoin fell below $96,000, hitting a low of $94,395, showing weak trends. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market reached $547 million, with both long and short positions being liquidated, affecting over 190,000 people.

• Economies.com analyzes that Bitcoin's price is trading with negative sentiment. If it cannot break through $96,325 and maintain above it, the outlook for future trading days is bearish, with expected trading range between the support level of $93,500 and the resistance level of $97,000.

U.S. Government Actions

• The U.S. government will transfer $1.9 billion worth of Bitcoin seized from Silk Road to Coinbase Prime wallet, causing panic selling. It is unclear whether this move is part of the government’s strategy to trade or sell funds, as it still holds Bitcoin valued at approximately $18 billion.

• U.S. lawmakers have proposed establishing a "Bitcoin National Strategic Reserve" in the U.S. The U.S. Marshals Service stated in July that it would collaborate with Coinbase Prime to manage tokens related to asset forfeiture, while Coinbase still faces a civil lawsuit filed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in June 2023.

MicroStrategy Actions

• Wall Street's largest publicly traded whale, MicroStrategy, insists on its strategy. Its CEO, Michael Saylor, announced the purchase of an additional $1.5 billion worth of 15,400 Bitcoins and disclosed related Bitcoin acquisition status and yield data.

Silk Road Related

• The Silk Road market facilitated a large amount of illegal cryptocurrency trading. Its founder, Ross Ulbricht, was sentenced to life imprisonment without parole in 2015. After the 2024 U.S. elections, some in the crypto industry are calling for Trump to reduce his sentence, as Trump promised to do so on his first day in office.

Two Major Difficulties Facing the United States

• Close China-Russia Relations: China and Russia are increasingly cooperating closely, with Russia providing China with oil and gas to ensure energy security, and China economically supporting Russia. The U.S. strategy to pull Russia to counter China has failed, making it difficult to undermine China-Russia relations, which impacts its global strategic layout.

Past Missteps and Consequences of the U.S.

• Afghanistan Issue: The U.S. fought for 20 years in Afghanistan, spending $2 trillion, and ultimately withdrew in disgrace, with funds wasted and no substantial results achieved.

• Ukraine Issue: Continuously stoking the fire in Ukraine has indirectly led to the European energy crisis, inflation, and many other problems, causing significant troubles for itself as well.

Current Overall Situation and Roots of the U.S. Dilemma

• Overall Situation: Although still a force to be reckoned with and one of the world's major powers, the U.S. currently faces numerous dilemmas, akin to walking a tightrope with cliffs on both sides; a slight misstep could lead to a deeper crisis, similar to a gambling addict's overconfidence that ultimately results in ruin, having committed similar errors in international affairs.

• Roots of the Dilemma: The U.S. has overly pursued hegemony and is infatuated with power, leading to strategic misdirection, neglecting that true national strength lies in the well-being of its people, rather than merely military might, etc.

Directions for the U.S. to Overcome Its Dilemma

A reassessment of its own strategy and adjustment of relevant policies is necessary to have a chance of emerging from the current predicament.

• About XRP: In less than a month, it absorbed 200 billion in market value, reaching 250 billion, raising concerns about its potential to crash the market. It is noted that after its explosive rise during the bull markets of 2017 and 2021, it fell significantly, posing great risks, and there is hope for its bubble to burst.

• Investment Strategy: Adhering to the philosophy of "buying when no one is paying attention and selling when there is a lot of noise," currently buying dips in Sol, ETH, and other small coins, waiting for the next round of market explosion.

• Bitcoin situation: The big pancake (Bitcoin) rebounded to 97300, the rebound strength has not been fully released, and there is still upward momentum. The first target is to pull back to around 98500, expecting to break 100,000 USD by the end of the month.

• Ethereum situation: Affected by Bitcoin's capital absorption, the rebound is relatively weak, currently back to around 3600. If Bitcoin surges to 100,000, Ethereum's target is to surge to 3850.

• Bottom-fishing advice: In the past two days, Bitcoin's bottom-fishing price is between 3268—3300—3360, take profits in batches after reaching the target; SOL rebounded from 223 to 243, the bottom-fishing target below is 247—253 for profit-taking in batches. Unstuck first, and then follow up with layout. #比特币走势分析

• Waiting for key positions: Don’t enter the market blindly at present. You need to wait for Bitcoin to reach 97,300 and Ethereum to reach the key positions of 3,670 and 3,720, and then decide according to the situation.

• Short position situation: At the current small level, the frequency of short selling by leeks is high, and the entry rate is 7 times that of longs. A wave of shorts needs to be cleared.

• Reference to past ups and downs: Taking the 21-year 64,000-69,000 process of Bitcoin as an example, during this period, there were frequent callbacks of 20-30% to clear longs. During the rise, the short-selling profit range was large, emphasizing the key position of the callback.

• Ethereum expectations: It is believed that Ethereum will collapse this time. The goal is to catch the fatal high point of leeks. The high point should be a long chase, with a high entry rate and a bullish point on the market, such as a key position on the trend line.

• Focus on key price levels: Currently, the most concerned thing is whether Bitcoin (BTC) can stand firm at 97,000. 97,000 is the current maximum pressure level. The 4-hour K-line rose to near 93,000 and encountered strong pressure and callback; at the same time, pay attention to the 93,000 position, which may be tested. If it breaks through 93,000, there may be trading opportunities, but it is not recommended to place orders. When it reaches nearby, you can see whether there is a bullish divergence at a small level to seize the opportunity.

• Market situation analysis: CVD has been falling on the market, but the price has gradually increased. The reason is that the short positions have gradually increased and foreigners celebrate Thanksgiving. The positions were reduced a lot yesterday, but this is not a reason for shorting. There is not much room for shorting at the current position.

• Operation strategy suggestions: For Bitcoin, we will wait and see whether it tests around 93,000 or whether it can stand firm at 97,000 in the future, and then operate. We advise everyone not to blindly chase the short position; in addition, the altcoins are going to warm up, and you can do some altcoins. The blogger will share and track the altcoin situation every day. #BTC☀

ETH is currently showing a strong bullish trend.

• Price forecast: It is expected to reach US$2,450 to US$2,570 by the end of 2024, and is expected to climb to US$79,600 in 2030. There are also higher long-term price expectations in 2028 and 2031.

• Market performance: As of November 27, 2024, the trading price was $3,523.19, with a 24-hour increase of 5.13%.

• Technical Analysis: It is expected to rise by 2.74% on December 27, 2024. The current market sentiment is bullish, with the Fear and Greed Index showing 75 (Greed).

• Options market: Implied volatility remains high, and calls are significantly more popular than puts.

• Market Updates: There are early signs of recovery, with altcoin season expected to gain momentum.

• ETF impact: The U.S. SEC’s approval of ETH-based ETFs will help increase the interest of institutional investors.

However, please note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment decisions should be made with caution and professional financial advice. #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥

• Changes in gaming entities: After Bitcoin surges to $100,000, its gaming entities will shift from previous Wall Street funds and retail investors to a competition between high technology and Wall Street funds.

• Wall Street funds' control situation: Approximately 5 million Bitcoins are active, and currently nearly half are concentrated in the hands of Wall Street funds, allowing them to easily manipulate Bitcoin prices, potentially raising it to $200,000 or driving it down to very low levels, with retail investors unable to fight back.

• Potential risks of Wall Street funds: The remaining 15 million inactive Bitcoins could be cracked by quantum technology or face disruption of Bitcoin technology, which could turn the over 2 million Bitcoins held by Wall Street into hot potatoes.

• Recommendations for retail investors: After Bitcoin reaches $100,000, given that the risks far outweigh the rewards, it is advised that retail investors withdraw and observe; even if prices continue to rise, participation is not advisable to avoid facing significant asset devaluation risks. #US Wall Street financial tycoons

• Market Judgment and Operation Suggestions: Previously analyzed that blockchain would drop from 97,000 to 87,500, and now believe this point can be reached. It is recommended to wait for a drop to that level before buying various coins, stating that the current situation is a normal correction after a rise of 40,000 points followed by a pullback of 10,000 points. It also pointed out that Bitcoin can be referenced, and when it approaches around 88,000, one should prepare to acquire their desired small coins.

• Important News Reminder: At 3 a.m. today, the Federal Reserve will announce the minutes of the November monetary policy meeting, and their views on subsequent interest rate cuts will have a significant impact on the market. Please pay attention to this.

• The current price of DOGE is $0.40637, overall in a range-bound oscillation, with short-term moving averages flattening, in a critical period for directional choice, and trading volume has decreased compared to the previous period, investor sentiment is cautious.

Key Levels

• The upper resistance at $0.41000 is an important short-term barrier, a breakthrough is expected to lead to a rapid upward movement; the lower support at $0.40000 may face retracement pressure if broken. Additionally, there are resistance levels at $0.41500 and support levels at $0.39500.

Indicator Situation

• RSI is in the neutral zone, the MACD signal shows slight weakness but there is no clear downward momentum, the price may mainly oscillate and consolidate.

Short-term Trading Strategy

• Long Strategy: Entry price $0.41000 (enter after breaking resistance), take profit price $0.41500, stop loss price $0.40700, leverage suggested 3 - 5 times.

• Short Strategy: Entry price $0.39900 (enter after breaking support), take profit price $0.39500, stop loss price $0.40200, leverage suggested 3 - 5 times.

Market Outlook

• DOGE is expected to choose a breakout direction in the short term, stabilizing above $0.41000 may aim for the target of $0.41500; breaking below $0.40000 may further test the $0.39500 support, investors need to flexibly adjust strategies based on market movements.

• Overall trend judgment: The overall trend of Ethereum is a bullish trend, the large trend level box is still held, the bullish idea remains unchanged, and the short indicator is characterized as a short-selling indicator.

• Key point situation:

• Resistance point: The short-term 15-minute K-line resistance point is 3320. If this position is broken, you can consider long layout; the first pressure point of the four-hour K-line middle track is 3360, and the upper track pressure point is 3450.

• Support point: EMA15 trend support is 3170, and the Bollinger band middle track support reference is 3120; the four-hour K-line falls back to the EMA30 support point 3300 and stands continuously, and the lower track support reference is 3475.

• Other key positions: The daily K-line falls back to the lower neckline and is effectively long, and the Bollinger band upper track is 3580.

• Operation idea: Find a position at the support point to arrange more, hold with a good stop loss, if the stop loss is wrong, don't fight, if it is right, hold to the previous high, currently short-term 3320 long orders are held, emphasizing that there is no 100% grasp of the market, and the goal should be safety first and small losses and big profits.

• Indicator performance: In terms of MACD, the daily K-line continues to increase in volume, and the four-hour K-line shrinks and increases in chips; in terms of Bollinger Bands, the four-hour K-line shrinks. And after the four-hour K-line shrinks in volume, the market chips begin to concentrate, and the main funds are flowing in. Operations should be arranged along the upward trend and follow the trend. #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥

• Bitcoin Price Performance: Recently very active in the capital market, the price has reached an all-time high, breaking through $99,000, with options traders even setting a target of $150,000.

• Reasons for the Increase: The relaxation of regulations on virtual cryptocurrencies before Trump's inauguration has sent positive signals, leading to a massive influx of capital into the virtual currency market, driving up its price.

• Bitcoin Attributes and Functions: It is not completely independent of the dollar system; it acts as an "auxiliary tool" to the dollar. In the context of a dollar credit crisis and dollar flooding, it can absorb excess dollars to prevent capital outflow, and it can also change the flow of dollar capital through price increases, suppressing other assets and becoming a protective firewall for the dollar.

• Impact on Other Markets: When Bitcoin's price surges, the A-share market performs poorly, showing significant declines.

• Key for Investors: As a general investor, it is important to pay attention to macroeconomic trends, especially the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

How to make your first bucket of gold in the cryptocurrency world, remember!!

Key Point 1: Stop Loss and Take Profit

Emphasize that trading cryptocurrencies is about transactions and speculation; one cannot just hold indefinitely. When making money, do not be greedy, and when losing money, do not hesitate to sell. If the trend is wrong, sell decisively.

Key Point 2: Abandon the Pursuit of Extreme Highs and Lows

Point out that accurately grasping market highs and lows is difficult; ordinary people should choose to trade in the bottom and top areas.

Key Point 3: Assess with Volume and Price Coordination

Be cautious of situations where prices rise without volume or new highs are made without volume; this may signal that the main force is offloading or that the rise is weakening. Do not blindly chase after price increases; it's better to miss an opportunity than to make a mistake.

Key Point 4: Quick Response

When information emerges, quickly identify beneficial sectors and companies. If you cannot keep up with the first tier, timely participate in the second tier to reap rewards.

Key Point 5: Learn to Rest

The main uptrend in coin prices is short-lived; grasp the main uptrend, and during other times, take a break and maintain a good rhythm.

Key Point 6: Seize Opportunities in a Sharp Decline

View sharp declines as the greatest benefit to the market; they often contain greater opportunities. Overcome human weaknesses; be greedy when others are fearful, and timely choose quality positions to build your portfolio.

Overall, while these six points may seem simple, overcoming human weaknesses makes it difficult to actually implement them, which is crucial to whether one can earn five million.

• Three things not to do when trading cryptocurrencies:

• Do not buy during an uptrend; develop the habit of buying during a downtrend, following the principle of "be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy."

• Never place large orders.

• Never go all-in; being fully invested has a high opportunity cost and is very passive, as there are many market opportunities.

• Six rules for short-term trading:

• After a period of consolidation at a high price, there may usually be a new high, and after consolidation at a low price, there may usually be a new low; wait for the direction of the trend to become clear before acting.

• Do not trade during sideways movement.

• When selecting candlesticks, buy on a bearish candle and sell on a bullish candle.

• If the decline slows down, the rebound will also be slow; if the decline accelerates, a rebound will follow.

• Use the pyramid buying method to build positions, which is a key point of value investing.

• After a cryptocurrency continues to rise or fall, it will enter a consolidation phase; there is no need to sell everything at a high or buy everything at a low; if a downward change occurs after consolidation at a high, clear your position in time, and respond promptly based on the change in trend.

• Bitcoin is currently at an all-time high and breaking new highs daily, requiring more and more capital to drive the market. There are often situations where Bitcoin is in a bull market while draining the value from other altcoins.
• There is a pin bar level at 97500 - 97600, and the four-hour pattern is a triangular wedge. If 97600 - 97500 is broken upwards, the next pin bar level is at 100400, and a pullback to the top of the triangular wedge at 92600 - 93200 is a position to go long.

Key points related to BNB
• It is not weak by itself, but rather being drained by Bitcoin. Contracts are being operated as planned, with spot trading at 570 for adding positions, and 591 is a pin bar level, with the next daily pin bar level at 570.

Key points related to Pepe
• The initial position is between 0.02 - 0.019, and the adding position is between 0.016 - 0.0148.

Key points related to WIF
• The initial position is between 3.3 - 3.5, and the adding position is at 2.76, with the spot or long position lifeline at 2.21.

• Other tokens looking to stretch need to wait for Bitcoin to finish this surge and consolidate at a high level before having a chance. Currently, it is challenging to operate contracts as other tokens fall when Bitcoin rises. If you don't want to miss the stretching opportunity, you can make spot layouts. #BTC再创新高97k

Key Points Related to Bitcoin:

• The current price is around 93700, with a peak of about 94000 in the early morning. The market is showing a short squeeze upward trend, with long positions being liquidated for 210 million dollars and short positions for 120 million dollars in the past 24 hours.

• Many people are bearish and even say it will drop below 70K, but the author finds it interesting and similar to drawing a big pie, and does not plan to short Bitcoin, believing that shorting is easy to incur losses and is not easy to execute, preferring to wait for lower long positions, which is relatively conservative.

• The support for long positions on Bitcoin has been adjusted to 91800 and 90500, with targets at 92500, 93500, and 95000, and the stop loss set at 89000.

Key Points Related to Ethereum:

• Ethereum's volatility is low, showing little movement when Bitcoin is rising, still focusing on short positions at the upper levels of 3160 and 3200, with downward targets at 3100, 3050, and 3000, and the stop loss at 3220.

• One: When Bitcoin hits a new high, altcoins plummet, possibly due to a black swan event developing towards a bad outcome, leading major players to sell altcoins for risk aversion.

• Two: There are three major hidden positives in the crypto world in December: MicroStrategy is expected to be included in the S&P 500 Index on December 6, Microsoft will review a Bitcoin investment proposal on December 10, and the Federal Reserve's third interest rate cut in December, along with FTX's potential repayment of over $18 billion.

• Three: The bull market is quite evident; major players will use various tactics to shake off weaker hands, and pullbacks are buying opportunities. After the market consolidates, there will be another surge.

• Four: Trading strategies are classified as high-level (buying aggressively on dips), medium-level (holding onto purchased assets passively), and low-level (chasing trends and selling on rises). It is recommended to buy and hold assets well in anticipation of the bull market.

• Five: Follow community trends to invest in hot coins, such as meme tokens like neiro, punt, cat, and ban issued on the Sol chain, which are highly popular and valuable. Holding onto them for a few months may lead to relative financial freedom.

The dog farm has started to brush hands again!
1. According to coinglass data, when BTC rose to 93,000, the amount of short liquidations was nearly 1.6 billion, and when it fell below 90,000, the amount of long liquidations was about 500 million.

2. The current price is fluctuating slightly within the relevant range, and a small rise or fall could trigger a large number of orders, creating a "long and short eat both" situation, making it difficult to distinguish ultra-short-term trends.

3. Many big players have withdrawn BTC from exchanges, seemingly optimistic about the future market, while 200 BTC were lost in Mentougou, as if testing the market's reaction.

4. Intuitively, I believe BTC will rise first, and then fall back down.
#狗庄

#币圈行情分析 • Macroeconomic Analysis:

• Price Trend Expectations: Bitcoin has recently been fluctuating at high levels, with low probability of a significant pullback in the short term. It is expected to challenge the $100,000 mark this month and may challenge the historical high of around $130,000 next month.

• Volume Changes: Market trading volume surged from an average of $120 billion last week to $450 billion this week, reflecting heightened bullish sentiment while also indicating that some funds are quietly withdrawing.

• Institutional Actions: Between November 10 and November 13, institutions like Paradigm and DWF transferred altcoins to exchanges for dumping, while ancient ICO addresses and high-win-rate whales significantly reduced their holdings of ETH.

• Long/Short Situation: The rapid surge in prices has led to a significant increase in futures positions, indicating that shorts are resisting market trends. Neither side will back down without a clear winner.

• Investment Reminder: The bull market presents both profit opportunities and significant risks. It is crucial to seize selling opportunities and to secure profits at high points. When the market is overheated, it’s important to pay attention to risk warnings.

• Market Analysis:

• BTC Situation: Currently in a week of fluctuations, with significant volatility. There is still potential for upward movement according to trends, but the current price is precarious, and the market is in a state of extreme greed. The support level around the $85,000 - $86,000 range on the daily chart should be closely monitored.

• ETH Situation: The 1-hour and 4-hour levels have returned to healthy levels, while the daily level is above healthy levels. A consolidation is expected during the day, with key support at $2980 - $3030 and resistance at $3150 - $3200.

• Altcoin Situation: If you missed the opportunities in the earlier phase (BTC + MEME) and the later phase (XRP + ADA), established old coins at the bottom (like DOT, ATOM, ICP, FIL, etc.) are good choices for betting on a rebound.

• The $93,000 mark for Bitcoin has become the focus for bulls, and whether it can break through today is a hot topic among investors.

• Institutional investors continue to engage, and their capital inflows may accelerate the upward momentum of Bitcoin.

• Global economic trends, changes in financial policies, and other macro factors may affect Bitcoin prices.

• Bitcoin is a high-risk, high-return, and highly volatile asset, with rapid market changes.

• Relevant platforms can be monitored to obtain the latest and most accurate market data and comprehensive data support to keep pace with the market and seize opportunities.