黄鑫的交易日志
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I went long
⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️
BTC, around 93000, long
Real-time price: 93043
Stop loss estimate: 91800
Take profit: 96000-98000
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BTC, around 93000, long
Real-time price: 93043
Stop loss estimate: 91800
Take profit: 96000-98000
⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️
See original
⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️
BTC, around 93000, long
Real-time price: 93043
Stop loss estimate: 91800
Take profit: 96000-98000
⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️
BTC, around 93000, long
Real-time price: 93043
Stop loss estimate: 91800
Take profit: 96000-98000
⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️
See original
#比特币价格走势分析 does not recommend shorting: Currently, BTC is within the AB=CD downward channel, with point D being a key support area. If the support holds, there may be a rebound to test the upper resistance; if it breaks down, further probing of the channel's lower edge may occur. It is recommended to pay attention to the price performance at point D and changes in volume.
There is currently no reasonable stop-loss point, and the one-sided decline lacks obvious pullbacks, and the hourly bearish structure has not yet formed.
If the price continues to fall, wait for new rebound signals before reassessing entry opportunities.
Key support position:
The current price is close to an important support area, which is the defensive position for short-term bulls. If the support is effective, a rebound towards the descending trend line can be expected, leading to continued complex adjustments.
If support breaks and stabilizes, it may trigger a deeper decline, with potential targets around 86000, moving towards an equidistant downward structure, where point D may fall at the lower boundary of the downward channel.
Strategy recommendation:
Observe the strength of the support level; if the support holds effectively, watch for rebound signals.
If support breaks and stabilizes, wait for a low point around 86000 or a more clear adjustment structure before considering action.
There is currently no reasonable stop-loss point, and the one-sided decline lacks obvious pullbacks, and the hourly bearish structure has not yet formed.
If the price continues to fall, wait for new rebound signals before reassessing entry opportunities.
Key support position:
The current price is close to an important support area, which is the defensive position for short-term bulls. If the support is effective, a rebound towards the descending trend line can be expected, leading to continued complex adjustments.
If support breaks and stabilizes, it may trigger a deeper decline, with potential targets around 86000, moving towards an equidistant downward structure, where point D may fall at the lower boundary of the downward channel.
Strategy recommendation:
Observe the strength of the support level; if the support holds effectively, watch for rebound signals.
If support breaks and stabilizes, wait for a low point around 86000 or a more clear adjustment structure before considering action.
See original
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BTC, around 94000, go long
Current price: 94200
Expected stop loss: 92600
Take profit: 99600-100000
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BTC, around 94000, go long
Current price: 94200
Expected stop loss: 92600
Take profit: 99600-100000
⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️
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#比特币走势观察 BTC/USDT (Bitcoin USDT) technical analysis on the 1-hour timeframe, mainly includes the following key points:
1. Key Area Division
Sell Zone (Resistance Zone): The current price is close to 99800-98200, within the short-term selling pressure area.
Expected Buy Zone (Support Zone): Around 95,000, near the Fibonacci 0.5 and 0.618 levels (95,172-95,211), this area is a potential buying point.
2. Trend Expectations
Pullback Expectation: A short-term pullback may occur below 97,000, even approaching the 95,000 buying zone.
Rebound Target: After the pullback is completed, it is expected to enter an upward trend, targeting the bullish expectation area (104,000-105,000).
3. Trading Strategy
Bullish Strategy: Focus on opportunities for a pullback to the buying zone, buy on dips around 95,000, and wait for the price to break upwards to the bullish target zone.
Bearish Strategy: In the short term, a light short position can be taken in the sell zone, targeting 97,000 or below, but be cautious with stop-loss protection.
4. Risk Warning
If the sell zone is broken and the price strengthens directly, consider buying on a pullback after the breakout, trading with the trend.
If it falls below 95,000, reassess the market structure and be cautious with positions.
Overall, the chart reflects that the market is in a short-term adjustment phase during a strong upward trend; as long as the key support is not broken during the pullback, it is highly likely to continue rallying.
1. Key Area Division
Sell Zone (Resistance Zone): The current price is close to 99800-98200, within the short-term selling pressure area.
Expected Buy Zone (Support Zone): Around 95,000, near the Fibonacci 0.5 and 0.618 levels (95,172-95,211), this area is a potential buying point.
2. Trend Expectations
Pullback Expectation: A short-term pullback may occur below 97,000, even approaching the 95,000 buying zone.
Rebound Target: After the pullback is completed, it is expected to enter an upward trend, targeting the bullish expectation area (104,000-105,000).
3. Trading Strategy
Bullish Strategy: Focus on opportunities for a pullback to the buying zone, buy on dips around 95,000, and wait for the price to break upwards to the bullish target zone.
Bearish Strategy: In the short term, a light short position can be taken in the sell zone, targeting 97,000 or below, but be cautious with stop-loss protection.
4. Risk Warning
If the sell zone is broken and the price strengthens directly, consider buying on a pullback after the breakout, trading with the trend.
If it falls below 95,000, reassess the market structure and be cautious with positions.
Overall, the chart reflects that the market is in a short-term adjustment phase during a strong upward trend; as long as the key support is not broken during the pullback, it is highly likely to continue rallying.
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#DOGE冲冲冲 Dogecoin (DOGE) 4-hour K-line chart against USDT, key analysis as follows:
1. Main observation points
Trend breakout: The price has broken through the yellow descending trend line and the sideways fluctuation range, indicating the end of the downtrend and bullish dominance.
Fibonacci resistance: The current price is close to the 0.618 retracement level (0.39947), and the target after breaking through points to 0.4579 (0.786 retracement level).
2. Market interpretation
Bullish expectation: After breaking through the trend line, the price is expected to continue rising, focusing on whether it can hold above the resistance level of 0.39947.
Retracement support: If there is a retracement, the support levels are at 0.37325 (0.5 retracement level) and 0.34703 (0.382 retracement level).
3. Operational suggestions
Go long in the direction of the trend; increase positions upon breaking through 0.39947, and set stop-loss near the retracement support levels.
1. Main observation points
Trend breakout: The price has broken through the yellow descending trend line and the sideways fluctuation range, indicating the end of the downtrend and bullish dominance.
Fibonacci resistance: The current price is close to the 0.618 retracement level (0.39947), and the target after breaking through points to 0.4579 (0.786 retracement level).
2. Market interpretation
Bullish expectation: After breaking through the trend line, the price is expected to continue rising, focusing on whether it can hold above the resistance level of 0.39947.
Retracement support: If there is a retracement, the support levels are at 0.37325 (0.5 retracement level) and 0.34703 (0.382 retracement level).
3. Operational suggestions
Go long in the direction of the trend; increase positions upon breaking through 0.39947, and set stop-loss near the retracement support levels.
See original
BTC/USDT perpetual contract (1 hour level) #BTC走势分析
Current price: 96761.7
Recent high point: 97822.4
Support range: 95000-98500
EMA20 (20-period exponential moving average): The price fluctuates around EMA. The current price is below EMA, and there is a need for a callback.
Right: ETH/USDT perpetual contract (1 hour level)
Current price: 3455.83
Recent high point: 3511.14
Support range: 3390-3520
EMA30 (30-period exponential moving average): ETH also fluctuates around EMA. The current price is below EMA and may continue to fluctuate and callback.
Text analysis summary:
Viewpoints in the afternoon session on January 3:
BTC expected trend:
After rising, it fell back and fluctuated between 98500-95000.
ETH expected trend:
Similar to BTC, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3520-3390.
Market influencing factors:
The US PMI data will be released at 23:00 on January 3, which will have little impact on the market.
Recent market performance:
The trend of BTC and ETH diverged yesterday, but the overall trend was upward.
It shows that the market highs and lows are gradually rising, indicating that the bottom support is gradually strengthening.
The current market is still in a large profit range, but it is expected that there will be a high-rise and fall phenomenon.
Operation strategy:
Pay attention to the formation of a long-short game structure between BTC and ETH at high levels, waiting for a directional breakthrough.
In the range of 95000-98500, go with the trend.
Operation suggestions:
BTC and ETH: Currently in a high-level oscillation stage, it is recommended to perform band operations in the support and pressure range, and sell high and buy low.
Short-term strategy:
If BTC is blocked near 98500, you can try to short, and set the stop loss above the pressure level.
After stabilizing near 95000, you can consider going long, and pay attention to the effectiveness of the bottom support.
The same is true for ETH, short near 3520, and look for long opportunities near 3390.
Conclusion: The overall market is still in a volatile upward trend, but it may rebound in the short term. It is recommended to focus on range operations, seize short-term volatility opportunities, and remain patient and wait for the trend to become clearer.
Current price: 96761.7
Recent high point: 97822.4
Support range: 95000-98500
EMA20 (20-period exponential moving average): The price fluctuates around EMA. The current price is below EMA, and there is a need for a callback.
Right: ETH/USDT perpetual contract (1 hour level)
Current price: 3455.83
Recent high point: 3511.14
Support range: 3390-3520
EMA30 (30-period exponential moving average): ETH also fluctuates around EMA. The current price is below EMA and may continue to fluctuate and callback.
Text analysis summary:
Viewpoints in the afternoon session on January 3:
BTC expected trend:
After rising, it fell back and fluctuated between 98500-95000.
ETH expected trend:
Similar to BTC, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3520-3390.
Market influencing factors:
The US PMI data will be released at 23:00 on January 3, which will have little impact on the market.
Recent market performance:
The trend of BTC and ETH diverged yesterday, but the overall trend was upward.
It shows that the market highs and lows are gradually rising, indicating that the bottom support is gradually strengthening.
The current market is still in a large profit range, but it is expected that there will be a high-rise and fall phenomenon.
Operation strategy:
Pay attention to the formation of a long-short game structure between BTC and ETH at high levels, waiting for a directional breakthrough.
In the range of 95000-98500, go with the trend.
Operation suggestions:
BTC and ETH: Currently in a high-level oscillation stage, it is recommended to perform band operations in the support and pressure range, and sell high and buy low.
Short-term strategy:
If BTC is blocked near 98500, you can try to short, and set the stop loss above the pressure level.
After stabilizing near 95000, you can consider going long, and pay attention to the effectiveness of the bottom support.
The same is true for ETH, short near 3520, and look for long opportunities near 3390.
Conclusion: The overall market is still in a volatile upward trend, but it may rebound in the short term. It is recommended to focus on range operations, seize short-term volatility opportunities, and remain patient and wait for the trend to become clearer.
See original
The Wisdom of Trading: Firm Direction, Learn to Choose, Stay Away from Frequent Losses.
#交易认知 Common psychological and operational misconceptions of many retail investors in the market. The following is a further analysis of this phenomenon:
1. Lack of clear direction in trading, blind operations.
Many investors are easily affected by short-term fluctuations in the market, lacking a firm trading plan and direction. When the market rises, they fear missing out and rush to buy at high prices; once the market corrects, they panic-sell, leading to frequent losses.
Solution:
Develop a trading plan: Determine the conditions for buying and selling before entering the market, strictly implement it, and do not easily change strategies due to market noise.
1. Lack of clear direction in trading, blind operations.
Many investors are easily affected by short-term fluctuations in the market, lacking a firm trading plan and direction. When the market rises, they fear missing out and rush to buy at high prices; once the market corrects, they panic-sell, leading to frequent losses.
Solution:
Develop a trading plan: Determine the conditions for buying and selling before entering the market, strictly implement it, and do not easily change strategies due to market noise.
See original
#比特币走势观察
BTCUSDT Price Trend Analysis on Hourly Level, Mainly Focused on the Division of Buy Area and Sell Area and Possible Market Path Predictions.
Key Analysis Points:
Trend Structure:
After experiencing a significant decline, BTC price has repeatedly found support near the buy area at 92200.
Every time it rebounds to the sell area at 96000, it encounters pressure and then falls back to the vicinity of the buy area, forming oscillation.
Buy and Sell Area Division:
Buy Area: 92200 is located at a low price level, forming a double bottom or support area. It has repeatedly tested this area but has not effectively broken down.
Sell Area: Located in the upper-middle zone, it has repeatedly faced resistance here, showing strong resistance.
Current Price Direction:
The current price is in the rebound phase from the buy area at 92200 to the sell area at 96000, with hopes of breaking through the previous high.
Possible Paths Indicated:
Path 1: If the price breaks through the sell area at 96000, the sell area will turn into support, and a new round of upward movement is expected to begin.
Path 2: If the rebound fails, the price may fall back to the buy area, looking for support to rebound again.
Strategy Suggestions:
If the price breaks through the sell area and stabilizes, a bullish trend may emerge in the short term, considering to go long on a pullback.
If it fails to break through, it will still be in a range-bound oscillation market, and seeking long opportunities near the buy area is more prudent.
Conclusion:
BTC is showing a pattern of oscillation and bottoming on the hourly level, with the key being the breakthrough situation of the sell area. Patiently wait for the breakthrough and act accordingly.
BTCUSDT Price Trend Analysis on Hourly Level, Mainly Focused on the Division of Buy Area and Sell Area and Possible Market Path Predictions.
Key Analysis Points:
Trend Structure:
After experiencing a significant decline, BTC price has repeatedly found support near the buy area at 92200.
Every time it rebounds to the sell area at 96000, it encounters pressure and then falls back to the vicinity of the buy area, forming oscillation.
Buy and Sell Area Division:
Buy Area: 92200 is located at a low price level, forming a double bottom or support area. It has repeatedly tested this area but has not effectively broken down.
Sell Area: Located in the upper-middle zone, it has repeatedly faced resistance here, showing strong resistance.
Current Price Direction:
The current price is in the rebound phase from the buy area at 92200 to the sell area at 96000, with hopes of breaking through the previous high.
Possible Paths Indicated:
Path 1: If the price breaks through the sell area at 96000, the sell area will turn into support, and a new round of upward movement is expected to begin.
Path 2: If the rebound fails, the price may fall back to the buy area, looking for support to rebound again.
Strategy Suggestions:
If the price breaks through the sell area and stabilizes, a bullish trend may emerge in the short term, considering to go long on a pullback.
If it fails to break through, it will still be in a range-bound oscillation market, and seeking long opportunities near the buy area is more prudent.
Conclusion:
BTC is showing a pattern of oscillation and bottoming on the hourly level, with the key being the breakthrough situation of the sell area. Patiently wait for the breakthrough and act accordingly.
See original
BTC 1 Hour Level Trend
Current Bitcoin hourly trend shows a bearish trend, but overall performance remains strong, with minor pullbacks indicating bullish resilience.
Key Points:
"It won't drop, it must surge": This indicates that despite the market repeatedly touching the support level around 92200, the price has not effectively broken down, suggesting that this support has strong buying power.
Continue to pay attention to the downtrend line: Once the price breaks through the hourly downtrend line, it may trigger a bull counterattack, leading to a strong upward trend.
Key Levels and Strategies:
Support Attention Level: Around 92200 USD
Key Points:
"It won't drop, it must surge": This indicates that despite the market repeatedly touching the support level around 92200, the price has not effectively broken down, suggesting that this support has strong buying power.
Continue to pay attention to the downtrend line: Once the price breaks through the hourly downtrend line, it may trigger a bull counterattack, leading to a strong upward trend.
Key Levels and Strategies:
Support Attention Level: Around 92200 USD
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Bitcoin #BTC走势分析 4 Hour Level Analysis
Market Overview
Current Price: $93,590.8
Trend Situation: Price has broken below the upward trend line, the market is weakening in the short term and is in a correction phase.
Key Technical Levels Analysis
Resistance Levels
0.382 Retracement Level: Around $99,800
This level is the first resistance for a short-term rebound; if it breaks through, there will be an opportunity to test above $100,000.
0.618 Retracement Level: About in the $85,000 area
This is a deeper retracement support level; if the price moves lower, this area will become an important buying opportunity.
Support Levels
Short-term Support: Around $92,200
If the price stabilizes in this area, a short-term rebound may occur.
Lower Support Target: $85,000 - $87,000 range
If it breaks below $92,200, the market may pull back to seek support in this area.
Trading Strategy
Short-term Strategy:
Focus on the support performance near $92,200; if a stop-loss signal appears, consider a light-position layout, targeting up to $99,500, with a stop-loss set below $91,500.
Breakout Strategy:
If the price breaks through $99,594, consider following the trend, targeting above $102,000.
Defensive Strategy:
If the price breaks below $92,000, primarily observe, waiting for layout opportunities in the $85,000 - $87,000 area.
Risk Warning
The short-term market trend is weak; focus on downside potential and avoid chasing prices up.
Patiently wait for the market to correct to a more favorable buying range, manage risks well, and set strict stop-losses.
Summary: The short-term correction of Bitcoin has not yet ended; patiently wait for the support test at $92,200 or lower layout opportunities.
Market Overview
Current Price: $93,590.8
Trend Situation: Price has broken below the upward trend line, the market is weakening in the short term and is in a correction phase.
Key Technical Levels Analysis
Resistance Levels
0.382 Retracement Level: Around $99,800
This level is the first resistance for a short-term rebound; if it breaks through, there will be an opportunity to test above $100,000.
0.618 Retracement Level: About in the $85,000 area
This is a deeper retracement support level; if the price moves lower, this area will become an important buying opportunity.
Support Levels
Short-term Support: Around $92,200
If the price stabilizes in this area, a short-term rebound may occur.
Lower Support Target: $85,000 - $87,000 range
If it breaks below $92,200, the market may pull back to seek support in this area.
Trading Strategy
Short-term Strategy:
Focus on the support performance near $92,200; if a stop-loss signal appears, consider a light-position layout, targeting up to $99,500, with a stop-loss set below $91,500.
Breakout Strategy:
If the price breaks through $99,594, consider following the trend, targeting above $102,000.
Defensive Strategy:
If the price breaks below $92,000, primarily observe, waiting for layout opportunities in the $85,000 - $87,000 area.
Risk Warning
The short-term market trend is weak; focus on downside potential and avoid chasing prices up.
Patiently wait for the market to correct to a more favorable buying range, manage risks well, and set strict stop-losses.
Summary: The short-term correction of Bitcoin has not yet ended; patiently wait for the support test at $92,200 or lower layout opportunities.
See original
BTC is consolidating, and as long as support holds, I remain bullish.
#2025加密趋势预测 BTC is in a state of oscillation and consolidation within a support and resistance range on the 4-hour cycle.
Key Points:
Support Level: Approximately around $92,200, which has been tested multiple times without breaking.
Resistance Level: Approximately around $99,800, where it has faced multiple rebounds.
Analysis Approach:
If it continues to hold above the support level, it is expected to break through resistance and challenge higher price ranges.
If it breaks below the support level, downward space may open up, or it may test lower prices.
Personal Opinion:
From a daily perspective, the overall trend of BTC remains strong, with important support levels repeatedly validated. Currently, there is no obvious signal for a significant downtrend in the larger cycle. Therefore, from a broader cycle perspective, I also tend to be bullish, maintaining a strong long position as long as support holds.
Key Points:
Support Level: Approximately around $92,200, which has been tested multiple times without breaking.
Resistance Level: Approximately around $99,800, where it has faced multiple rebounds.
Analysis Approach:
If it continues to hold above the support level, it is expected to break through resistance and challenge higher price ranges.
If it breaks below the support level, downward space may open up, or it may test lower prices.
Personal Opinion:
From a daily perspective, the overall trend of BTC remains strong, with important support levels repeatedly validated. Currently, there is no obvious signal for a significant downtrend in the larger cycle. Therefore, from a broader cycle perspective, I also tend to be bullish, maintaining a strong long position as long as support holds.
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It is often said that knowledge and action should be unified; knowing and doing are the difficulties and pain points for most people.
If you know but cannot do, it is equivalent to not knowing. Knowing includes both the theoretical knowledge from thought experiments and the practical knowledge of how to respond to specific issues after practice. Theoretical knowledge is a form of awakening, and the enhancement of practical understanding can be said to be knowing as well as doing. #比特币市场波动观察
If you know but cannot do, it is equivalent to not knowing. Knowing includes both the theoretical knowledge from thought experiments and the practical knowledge of how to respond to specific issues after practice. Theoretical knowledge is a form of awakening, and the enhancement of practical understanding can be said to be knowing as well as doing. #比特币市场波动观察
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#比特币市场波动观察
A few days ago mentioned the key support and resistance levels of 10200-102000
Potential W bottom on the 1-hour level
A few days ago mentioned the key support and resistance levels of 10200-102000
Potential W bottom on the 1-hour level
See original
Overall Analysis of BTC Hourly Level Structure
#比特币市场波动观察
The current BTC trend shows a clear hourly bearish structure; the market is in a downward trend with three important areas:
(Sell Zone): Located between 100,300 - 102,224 USD, this is a strong resistance area for shorts.
B (Buy Zone): Around 9299 - 95,218 USD, the current price is hovering in this area; a left-side long position can be attempted with a light position.
(Buy Zone): A lower potential buying area, located between 82000-86000 USD, can be monitored after breaking the previous low.
Key Point Analysis
(Sell Zone)
Function: A strong suppression area dominated by shorts; if the price rebounds to 100300-102000, pay attention to short entry opportunities.
The current BTC trend shows a clear hourly bearish structure; the market is in a downward trend with three important areas:
(Sell Zone): Located between 100,300 - 102,224 USD, this is a strong resistance area for shorts.
B (Buy Zone): Around 9299 - 95,218 USD, the current price is hovering in this area; a left-side long position can be attempted with a light position.
(Buy Zone): A lower potential buying area, located between 82000-86000 USD, can be monitored after breaking the previous low.
Key Point Analysis
(Sell Zone)
Function: A strong suppression area dominated by shorts; if the price rebounds to 100300-102000, pay attention to short entry opportunities.
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#比特币市场波动观察 ⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️
BTC, around 96000, short
Real-time price: 96100
Stop loss estimate: 98888
Take profit: to be determined
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BTC, around 96000, short
Real-time price: 96100
Stop loss estimate: 98888
Take profit: to be determined
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