This wave of TRB has directly increased by almost twice!!

The results of the US election on November 4 are coming soon, let's briefly discuss the impact of two possible outcomes on the cryptocurrency market.

Outcome 1: Trump is elected.

1. The new Republican Party platform will become more important: ending the US government's crackdown on cryptocurrencies, defending the rights of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency mining, self-custody, and trading freedom.

2. Trump will appoint a new SEC chairman, with three candidates who are favorable to the crypto space: Dan Gallagher (Chief Legal Officer of Robinhood, which fully embraces the crypto space), Chris Giancarlo (former CFTC chairman, nicknamed the father of crypto), and Hester Peirce (one of the current five SEC commissioners, nicknamed the mother of crypto).

3. The DOGE division will be officially established, and cutting the budget department will surely generate news, bringing Dogecoin's exposure to another level.

4. Short-term benefits of Trump-themed coins will be fully realized.

Outcome 2: Harris is elected.

1. The steps towards regulatory openness for the crypto space will not be as significant. Gary Gensler may become Treasury Secretary, and among the new SEC chairman candidates, only Chris Brummer is crypto-friendly, but being a law professor may lead him to be similar to Gary after taking office.

2. Trump may go to jail, Musk may be targeted, and companies in the crypto space that support Trump may face scrutiny, especially those that align with the knowledgeable king out of fear of SEC action, such as Kraken and Gemini. The aforementioned related concept coins may face a deep pitfall.

3. Harris's climate policy will negatively impact high-energy-consuming POW mining.

4. Overall, it should present another bottom-fishing opportunity similar to '94. After all, the Democratic Party and Harris's major backer BlackRock still want to expand Bitcoin ETFs and tokenization.

Did the big Bitcoin holders run away?
We can see very intuitively from the on-chain data that Bitcoin is currently in a red outflow state, which means that a large number of coins are bought by whales and withdrawn from exchanges, and the exchange inventory is declining.

However, in the short term, the buying has indeed declined, but it is still far from the green selling range. This red buying generally occurs in the upward trend and the bottom of the coin price, and is often accompanied by a significant increase.

So the currency circle has only entered the Double Holiday, and Wall Street is on vacation in Florida. After these people come back in early January, I think the currency market will restart.
So don't panic, be patient, and wait for the main force to return!

The alt season is about to start, but there will not be a full-line explosion in 2021!

There are three main reasons:

1. The lifting of restrictions continues: tokens of low-circulation and high-FDV projects continue to be unlocked, bringing heavy selling pressure

Supply-side overgrowth: industry infrastructure is further improved,

2. The threshold for entrepreneurship is further lowered, and new projects are over-issued

Demand-side growth is insufficient: lack of attractive new business models, most tracks are difficult to achieve product-market matching, and cannot stimulate demand for altcoins.

3. If you are afraid of missing the alt season, then the only thing you can do is to find a cost-effective entry point and set a stop loss. As for whether you can still break the historical high, luck is very important.

I have been thinking about the development of this bull market recently, especially the trend of Bitcoin and altcoins.

2025 will not repeat 2021. Many people use 2021 as a reference, but 2021 itself is different from 2017 and more like 2013, although the second wave of the market is somewhat deformed.

2025 may replicate the trend of 2017, that is, there will be no obvious two-stage market, but it will not be exactly the same.

Judging from the trend of altcoins in the past two months, they are no longer following Bitcoin like in 2021, especially after January 12, when altcoins began to follow Ethereum. Although the prosperity of Ethereum's ecosystem has allowed most altcoins to follow its trend, some altcoins have their own independent rhythm.

I have been thinking about this bull market these two days, how the trend of Bitcoin and altcoins might evolve.

2025 will definitely not be engraved in 2021, because too many people use 21 as a reference, just like 2021 will not be engraved in 2017, but more like 2013, but not completely like, the second stage of the market development is more abnormal.

Then there is a probability that 2025 will be engraved in 2017, that is, there will not be an obvious two-stage market, but it will not be exactly the same.

As for altcoins, judging from the trend in the past two months, it is obvious that it is not like 2021. The situation in 21 is that after January 12, altcoins basically did not follow Bitcoin, but followed ETH. Bitcoin pulled back all the way, and altcoins reversed all the way. In the last round, it may be true that because the entire ETH ecosystem was particularly prosperous, most altcoins were ETH-based, so it gave people an illusion that all altcoins followed ETH. In fact, some altcoins have their own rhythm.

Dogecoin is priced around 0.25, ranging from 0.35 to 0.2. I think the fluctuations in this range are healthy trends, because the last round of Dogecoin outbreak attracted a large number of new funds to enter the market, which requires some time to digest. It can also be understood as washing out the unsteady holders. Then the way to wash the market is to follow the market to fluctuate widely.

Of course, the fluctuation range of Dogecoin will be much larger than that of BTC and ETH. This is also the characteristic of small cottage MEME coins, and it is also unavoidable. Many fans and friends are currently trapped in a situation of entering the market at a high position. My operation suggestions are:

If Dogecoin currently accounts for less than 50% of your total position, then I do not recommend you to cut your losses and leave the market now. You can wait for Dogecoin to further pull back to around 0.25 to increase your position and lower the average price. This is conducive to better recovery and profit. Everyone must remember that when the spot is not certain and the position is not very advantageous, it must be entered in batches, so that you can buy at a relatively low position!

If you are currently fully invested in Dogecoin or close to fully invested (accounting for 70% to 80%), and the entry point is far away now, it is difficult to return to the cost position without the support of good news in the short term. Then I suggest that you can reduce your position appropriately every time it rebounds. Reducing your position does not mean that you are not optimistic about the future of Dogecoin, but that your position is all occupied by Dogecoin. Then the next bull market will break out and the copycats will fly everywhere, which may have nothing to do with you. You may only return to your cost position and make a small profit.

Everyone comes to the currency circle for one purpose, that is, to make money and cash out. So everyone should be smarter and maximize the use of their funds. Don't hang yourself on a tree. Sometimes cutting off your arm to survive is also a kind of wisdom. Everyone should spend more time to learn the correct way to play contracts and spot, and don't enter the market blindly!

Today's fan Q&A:
How do you see GMT?
0.12-0.17 oscillates to build a bottom, and there is still room above after breaking through.
How much do you see in the short term for LPT?
Look up or down? Haha, first look at whether the high point of the previous few days near 21 can be broken through. Don't be afraid of going down. If it can reach around 15, you can take a look.
How is FTT?
Not bad, the bottom is well built in all aspects of the trend, and there are news and compensations on FTX in 25 years, etc., which can be held.
How is Ondo?
ONDO is one of the hot RWA concepts, very strong and good.
Where can the short-term rebound be seen first at 1.7 and then 2.2 after breaking through.
Can ME be held?
Recently, the new coins have been doing well, and this coin is also good, so you can hold it.
How do you see ENS?
After the overall breakthrough of this coin, it will form an oscillation range of 31-50 above. It has to wait for Ethereum to become strong. It is a good coin.
Is there a high possibility of a plunge at the end of the month?
Not very likely, there is not much long liquidity in the short term. The probability of oscillation is greater

Signs of Recovery in Bitcoin ETF Buying

The four indicative Bitcoin spot ETFs, FBTC, ARKB, BITB, and BTC, have finally ended a continuous net outflow since December 17, with significant net inflows starting yesterday.

Among them, the net inflows for FBTC and ARKB reached 254 million and 187 million, respectively.

December 27 BTC and ETH Market Analysis:
Today's Highlights:
BTC: 1-hour and 4-hour levels returning to healthy levels, daily level returning to healthy levels, intraday expectation continues to consolidate, consider following up on pullback support levels, large cycle expectations have not weakened, intraday support at 94000-95000, resistance at 98000-98500
ETH: 1-hour and 4-hour levels returning to healthy levels, daily level returning to healthy levels, intraday expectation consolidating, consider following up on pullback support levels, intraday support at 3280-3330, resistance at 3480-3530

Altcoins are consolidating in line with mainstream trends, with some altcoins experiencing slight declines. Pay attention to the stability of mainstream coins today; it may be time to consider following up and waiting for the next round of bullish cycles. For altcoins already acquired, continue holding SATS and consider selling when it rises to around 50. For medium-term holding, look towards around 80. After reducing holdings in CKB, continue holding and wait for ecological breakthroughs. If still holding FTM, consider reducing holdings. POLYX can continue to be held, and maintain holdings in ACT.
Fundamental news: None
Primary market information:
Recently, on-chain MEME has also begun to cool down, continue to monitor this. The DOGECAST narrative is promising; consider positioning to wait for the narrative to start.

In the crypto world, buying coins can be considered the first step to entry.

However, this step is not easy.

Novices often get lost among various altcoins, unsure of what to do.

But I want to tell everyone that buying coins also requires skills.

No matter how unpredictable the market is, we must maintain a steady mindset.

I recommend that everyone allocate half of their portfolio to Bitcoin and Ethereum, as these are the two cornerstones of the crypto world and the most reliable investment choices.

The remaining portion should be selected based on market conditions and personal judgment.

When a bull market arrives, various altcoins emerge like mushrooms after rain, at this time we need to keep a clear mind and keenly capture those coins with potential.

Of course, this does not mean we should blindly chase highs, but rather analyze rationally and operate steadily.

Remember, trading coins is not gambling; it requires us to use wisdom and courage to engage in the game.

Selling coins, compared to buying, tests our skills and mindset even more.

Many people always think about selling at the highest point, but this is actually an unrealistic fantasy.

The market is ever-changing; we cannot predict future trends.

Therefore, we need to learn to set reasonable profit-taking targets and strictly execute them.

Risk and Return
1. When investing/trading, you should first consider how much risk you can take.

2. At the same time, do not fear risk; boldly imagine the potential returns in the future.

3. Positive and negative EV is the basis for your decision-making when placing bets.

4. Before every investment, make sure to give yourself a few reasons.

5. The main force will rise before it falls, and will fall before it rises.

Is this still the raging bull market you expected?

Do you think a bull market should see all cryptocurrencies rising without any pullbacks? That's too simplistic.

The rhythm of previous bull markets has always been like this.

Early stage: Led by Bitcoin.

Mid stage: Bitcoin continues to lead, altcoins and other cryptocurrencies follow suit, with strong and hot sectors performing exceptionally well.

Late stage: After Bitcoin reaches its peak, it enters a wide range of fluctuations, with altcoins driving the entire altcoin market to complete the peak trend.

When will the altcoin season really come?

To explain, when a major market trend reaches its first wave, it will first be followed by a small altcoin market, and after a slight adjustment, a second wave of major altcoin market will follow!

Now, this round of market has lasted for three months, and BTC has reached the critical position of 100,000 and has made adjustments, while the Bitcoin market share has also decreased, fluctuating for about 4 weeks. The adjustment time is in place, which also provides a foundation for the altcoin explosion. Don't rush into altcoins; the arrival of the altcoin season requires not only Bitcoin to rise steadily but also enough emotion and capital overflow.

For the real altcoin season to come, Bitcoin needs to rise slowly, and Ethereum must maintain a strong upward trend. The combination of these two factors is the best driving force for emotion and capital. Everyone can recall that in November, the small strength of altcoins experienced a blood-sucking phase from BTC, coupled with Ethereum frequently breaking resistance levels and standing above 4000. Looking back, during BTC's blood-sucking phase, Ethereum surged. At this stage, many altcoins have already completed 2-3 times the movement, while the weaker ones have seen over 50%. Therefore, if these conditions are not met, it is difficult for altcoins to have a comprehensive explosion day.

Returning to the topic, saying this is not to undermine everyone’s confidence and expectations, but to make everyone understand that while anticipating the altcoin season, we must also be cautious of the risk of decline. Once Bitcoin and Ethereum start to adjust, altcoins will also face adjustments. Therefore, we should be prepared for the market according to the stage we are in.

The altcoin season will not happen directly here, and the real expectations will be changed by the statements released after Trump takes office, along with the influx of capital. Relying solely on the current capital situation, it is difficult for altcoins to meet everyone’s expectations.

The bloodsucking effect of the altcoin market is becoming increasingly apparent, especially during periods of extreme volatility. Looking back at the flow of funds in the meme sector, it’s like a new script every day; the speed at which funds rotate is astonishing.

Recently, many friends who have privately messaged me have been asking, "What should I do if I’m stuck with XX coin?" In fact, many people didn’t set a stop-loss when opening positions. Once the market reverses, they are instantly trapped, and they may even be forced to liquidate. The stop-loss price is essentially the liquidation price; if you’re lucky, you might barely hold on and see a rebound, but if you’re unlucky, you will indeed have to face the consequences of liquidation.

The real problem is that many people do not understand the risks of contracts and are unwilling to set stop-loss orders.

Everyone always thinks that if they are trapped, perhaps holding on a bit longer might allow them to break even. Once or twice they may escape by luck, but sooner or later, there will be a time when it completely backfires; this is a lesson I have personally experienced.

So, here’s a piece of advice for all friends trading contracts: open positions within your capacity, and never ignore the setting of stop-loss orders!

Set stop-loss orders, set stop-loss orders, set stop-loss orders; this is the most basic form of risk management.

A very high-value experience for selecting projects in the meme market—carefully consider
Is the narrative good, is the AI good, can it go viral, like SS or Apple? In addition to conventional metrics,
there's another standard:
【Uniqueness】
Can it be easily imitated from the same angle? Can it be immediately copied? The less it can be imitated, the harder it is to replicate, the more it should be prioritized in selection.
Because the imitation ability of the dogs is too strong.
For example, Ban, how can you imitate that?

My bottom-fishing usually divides the funds into two parts, half on the left and half on the right;

On the left, the more it falls, the more I buy, and I buy until I reach my psychological limit. On the right, I wait for upward push or higher tops and higher bottoms, and buy when it falls back.

Instead of not buying when it falls, I rushed in after it rose a few points like yesterday, which is very easy to be cut repeatedly.

BTC and altcoins have diverged, but in general, the currency circle still depends on the big cake. If the big cake does not harden, the sustainability of the altcoin's pull-up remains to be seen; you can understand it as an oversold rebound, or you can understand it as the main funds controlling the average price of chips. Wait for the big cake when it falls to the bottom → the big cake has not fallen yet → the big cake has fallen → follow the fall → the big cake has not fallen to the right place → the altcoin pulls up a wave of prices to defend and wait.