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My big-character poster: Why I want to make a clear statement
Before talking about ionet, let's talk about AI and machine learning
There are several mainstream AI models: Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Transformer, Generative Adversarial Model (GAN), etc. Its main application scenarios are still natural language processing and generative models.
So, which of the above does ionet belong to?
Unfortunately, neither is true. In IONET's white paper, it is positioned as "building the world's largest AI computing DePIN (decentralized physical infrastructure network)". In the final analysis, it has nothing to do with AI and deep learning, but is just a hardware computing power provider.
There are several mainstream AI models: Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Transformer, Generative Adversarial Model (GAN), etc. Its main application scenarios are still natural language processing and generative models.
So, which of the above does ionet belong to?
Unfortunately, neither is true. In IONET's white paper, it is positioned as "building the world's largest AI computing DePIN (decentralized physical infrastructure network)". In the final analysis, it has nothing to do with AI and deep learning, but is just a hardware computing power provider.
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The essence of Ton is a telegram-based L1, which claims to have a public chain of 1 billion people, but in fact, the Ton ecosystem is very poor, and there are no eye-catching crypto native projects on it. Whether it is Notcoin, which was the first to be listed on BN, or Hamster and Catizen, which have been very popular recently, their essence is to use web2 data to make web3 pay. The essence of blockchain is decentralization, immutability and privacy. Unfortunately, these factors have not been well interpreted in the projects within the Ton ecosystem. The core problem of the Ton ecosystem is that cheap web2 traffic does not have a real long-tail effect after web3 users, capital and exchanges pay for it. For most so-called taptoearn applications with huge DAU, issuing coins means death. In other words, it is another form of replicating the refining/metaverse market in the second half of 2021. Compared with the potential of billions of users, project parties and VCs should pay more attention to how to convert cheap web2 traffic into meaningful crypto native users.
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My big-character poster: Why I clearly criticized BITTENSOR
The main authors of this article: 0xComrade Xiao Wang, 0xSpring Bridge, and 0xYunhe.
Let me put the conclusion first: BITTENSER is essentially an AI memecoin. In this round of AI+crypto hype, it has become the king of AI coin market value due to its certain technical disguise. The narrative is grand and easy to spread (AI+crypto, decentralized AI), the project logic is pretentious but naive in nature, and it makes a shell application for the public to see the effect, but there is no actual application value.
The entire BITTENSER project is full of waste of resources, logical loopholes, false data, and has very serious selling risks and selling pressure.
Let me put the conclusion first: BITTENSER is essentially an AI memecoin. In this round of AI+crypto hype, it has become the king of AI coin market value due to its certain technical disguise. The narrative is grand and easy to spread (AI+crypto, decentralized AI), the project logic is pretentious but naive in nature, and it makes a shell application for the public to see the effect, but there is no actual application value.
The entire BITTENSER project is full of waste of resources, logical loopholes, false data, and has very serious selling risks and selling pressure.
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The current market technical aspect is very similar to the eve of 519 in 21, but the emotional aspect is very different...
What was the market like before 519 in 21? It was the big cake that repeatedly touched the support but never fell down, it was the huge amount of funds rotating in the various sectors of the cottage industry to refresh the trading volume list, and the US dollar index twice tested the 90 mark...
In today's market, the big cake is sluggish, the cottage industry has no funds at all, the funds in the market are cut, and retail investors play meme and do not accept VC plates at all. The US dollar index stands firmly at 105.
As a practitioner, I have no reason to short my business.
But I can't convince myself to intervene in the spot at this position.
What was the market like before 519 in 21? It was the big cake that repeatedly touched the support but never fell down, it was the huge amount of funds rotating in the various sectors of the cottage industry to refresh the trading volume list, and the US dollar index twice tested the 90 mark...
In today's market, the big cake is sluggish, the cottage industry has no funds at all, the funds in the market are cut, and retail investors play meme and do not accept VC plates at all. The US dollar index stands firmly at 105.
As a practitioner, I have no reason to short my business.
But I can't convince myself to intervene in the spot at this position.
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Why do people think there is no narrative innovation in this round?
Because both VCs and project owners are still staying in their original comfort zone.
The earliest WEB3 was a large wasteland. BTC was the first to be reclaimed, followed by ETH. At that time, everyone wanted to cultivate more land on the wasteland to FARM (obtain incremental funds and users).
Nowadays, almost everyone is working hard on the existing one-third of an acre of land, competing with each other for the pitiful little bit of stock market. Repeating labor on the existing land (supply-side reform) cannot solve the problem on the demand side at all, let alone obtain incremental growth.
Let's take a look. How many founder teams of projects preparing to issue coins this year are teams that have done "successful projects" in the last round of bull market. VC internship - investing in projects - doing projects by yourself - looking for VC financing - changing to the next project to raise money and cut retail investors has become a paradigm at the industry consensus level, so don't blame retail investors for not taking over and only playing memes.
Because both VCs and project owners are still staying in their original comfort zone.
The earliest WEB3 was a large wasteland. BTC was the first to be reclaimed, followed by ETH. At that time, everyone wanted to cultivate more land on the wasteland to FARM (obtain incremental funds and users).
Nowadays, almost everyone is working hard on the existing one-third of an acre of land, competing with each other for the pitiful little bit of stock market. Repeating labor on the existing land (supply-side reform) cannot solve the problem on the demand side at all, let alone obtain incremental growth.
Let's take a look. How many founder teams of projects preparing to issue coins this year are teams that have done "successful projects" in the last round of bull market. VC internship - investing in projects - doing projects by yourself - looking for VC financing - changing to the next project to raise money and cut retail investors has become a paradigm at the industry consensus level, so don't blame retail investors for not taking over and only playing memes.
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Comprehensive analysis from multiple aspects: Where is the time bottom and price bottom of BTC?
First, let’s look at the miners’ indicated price. At the bottom of the market at the end of 2022, BTC was very close to or even exceeded the miners’ shutdown price. As shown in Figure 1, the shutdown price of the current mainstream mining machine S19pro is around $43,000 at a cost of $0.08 per kWh.
The second is the time bottom. The Fed's rate cut expectations have been lowered from -170bp at the beginning of the year to -30bp at present. Many people even think that the Fed will not cut interest rates this year and may even raise interest rates by 25bp again. See Figure 2
But according to Figure 3, if the Fed does not cut interest rates, based on the current rate of deficits and applying current interest rates, the annualized interest cost will reach $1.6 trillion by the end of 2024, which is unbearable.
The second is the time bottom. The Fed's rate cut expectations have been lowered from -170bp at the beginning of the year to -30bp at present. Many people even think that the Fed will not cut interest rates this year and may even raise interest rates by 25bp again. See Figure 2
But according to Figure 3, if the Fed does not cut interest rates, based on the current rate of deficits and applying current interest rates, the annualized interest cost will reach $1.6 trillion by the end of 2024, which is unbearable.
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The most undesirable situation has come.
Six and a half hours ago, the monthly line of BTC closed, and KD crossed.
Don't have any idea of going long in May. Every rebound is an opportunity to open a short position/clear the position.
After a wide range of fluctuations, the decline is confirmed to be fatal. Refer to the trend after the cross in April and November 21.
One BTC fell 35%, and another BTC fell 15%.
Copyright? There are still copycats at this time?
Six and a half hours ago, the monthly line of BTC closed, and KD crossed.
Don't have any idea of going long in May. Every rebound is an opportunity to open a short position/clear the position.
After a wide range of fluctuations, the decline is confirmed to be fatal. Refer to the trend after the cross in April and November 21.
One BTC fell 35%, and another BTC fell 15%.
Copyright? There are still copycats at this time?
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My big-character poster - some analysis on BN listing behavior in this round of small bull market
The number one lady of Binance said that even if BN does not list coins, other cex will list coins on a large scale.
Indeed, in the bull market, many projects have the demand for VC asset delivery and issuance, but can the current liquidity really support BN to list a coin almost every week or two for many months? Let's take a look at the historical data.
*All the following data comes from public channels, including BN official website, project token economics/white paper and coincoinmarketcap. It is not targeted at any third party and is only a list of data.
First, let's select a data slice. I chose a seven-month time span from September 20, 2023 to April 19, 2024. In these seven months, BTC rose from 27218 to 63466, an increase of 133.79%. A net increase of 36248. For comparison, let's pick a similar increase range from 2020 to 2021. I chose January 1, 2021 to November 8, 2021. In this period, BTC rose from 28976 to 67556, an increase of 133.76%, a net increase of 38580. It took nearly 11 months.
Indeed, in the bull market, many projects have the demand for VC asset delivery and issuance, but can the current liquidity really support BN to list a coin almost every week or two for many months? Let's take a look at the historical data.
*All the following data comes from public channels, including BN official website, project token economics/white paper and coincoinmarketcap. It is not targeted at any third party and is only a list of data.
First, let's select a data slice. I chose a seven-month time span from September 20, 2023 to April 19, 2024. In these seven months, BTC rose from 27218 to 63466, an increase of 133.79%. A net increase of 36248. For comparison, let's pick a similar increase range from 2020 to 2021. I chose January 1, 2021 to November 8, 2021. In this period, BTC rose from 28976 to 67556, an increase of 133.76%, a net increase of 38580. It took nearly 11 months.