The stretch height of Bitcoin and Ethereum is basically in line with expectations, with no pullback in between before going up. Friends who entered short positions at high levels should pay attention to moving stop-losses. For Bitcoin, a trade can be made every 500 points, and for Ethereum, every 25 points. The view on daily retracement remains unchanged, but liquidity is lower on weekends, so there's no need to be too aggressive!

1221: Powell said good afternoon, and before he finished speaking, a pullback started, with Bitcoin once dropping to around 92200. It may seem like the market is very volatile, but it is actually quite rational; even the last spike near 90200 wasn't reached. This just indicates a washout driven by events. There has been divergence and overbought conditions for a while, and these three days have seen digestion. Lao Song mentioned yesterday that as long as the closing is above 96000, it will basically hold; overall today, it is oscillating above 97000. Over the weekend, it will evolve according to the first scenario we anticipated yesterday, with a higher probability of either sideways movement or a slight rebound. The support range below is between 95500-96000, and the resistance range above is between 98000-98400.
Today's operation involves buying on the pullback and then shorting at the high.
Buy between 95500-96000, target 98000; if it breaks above 98500, watch for 99500; if it doesn't break, consider shorting, with a target at 95500; if that breaks, look for 94300.
For Ethereum, buy between 3390-3420 with a target of 3520-3540; if it doesn't break 3530-3550, consider shorting with a target of 3400-3370.

1220: The Nasdaq index fluctuated and closed with a long upper shadow shooting star, while Bitcoin continued to pull back by 2.74 percentage points. Yesterday, Old Song also mentioned that the position at 102000 was not stable and there was room for a pullback, so we adopted a strategy of going long first and then short, essentially capturing 90% of the intraday range. In recent days, the large space was tested in the early hours, and many Asian traders might have been resting and missed the opportunity. In fact, this week has higher operability compared to the previous weeks, with more certainty regarding the pullback; the previous weeks were all divergences, and shorting didn't yield much. However, the pullback in the past two days has been substantial. If the European and American markets decline, the Asian market will likely have a corrective rebound. At this point, we continue to follow a rebound long, and then if there is no momentum, we will short! Pay attention to the upper range of 98391-98744 and the lower range of 95674. If it breaks down, watch 94265. Intra-day long at 96300-96800, with a target of 98200, if it breaks, look at 98744 aiming for 100500-101000. If the rebound lacks strength, we can short in the opposite direction, targeting 95700, and if it breaks down, we can look at 94500 while synchronizing with Ethereum.

1220: The Nasdaq index fluctuated and closed with a long upper shadow shooting star, while Bitcoin continued to pull back by 2.74 percentage points. Yesterday, Old Song also mentioned that the position at 102000 was not stable and there was room for a pullback, so we adopted a strategy of going long first and then short, essentially capturing 90% of the intraday range. In recent days, the large space was tested in the early hours, and many Asian traders might have been resting and missed the opportunity. In fact, this week has higher operability compared to the previous weeks, with more certainty regarding the pullback; the previous weeks were all divergences, and shorting didn't yield much. However, the pullback in the past two days has been substantial. If the European and American markets decline, the Asian market will likely have a corrective rebound. At this point, we continue to follow a rebound long, and then if there is no momentum, we will short! Pay attention to the upper range of 98391-98744 and the lower range of 95674. If it breaks down, watch 94265. Intra-day long at 96300-96800, with a target of 98200, if it breaks, look at 98744 aiming for 100500-101000. If the rebound lacks strength, we can short in the opposite direction, targeting 95700, and if it breaks down, we can look at 94500 while synchronizing with Ethereum.

In the early morning and morning, the main events are driven by incidents leading to a stampede. The market will gradually return to rationality. During the day, we suggest a strategy of buying on dips. The current price has reached this area, and Bitcoin should have reached around 1600 points. Friends with heavy positions can reduce their holdings or set up trailing stop losses to protect profits. The extent of the pullback is relatively large, and it is somewhat difficult to break through all at once to reach the expected target. There is no need for heavy positions! Friends who joined Lao Song's team on October 4th at 5100u currently have an account balance of 203931u. Although the progress is slow, the result is good. Step by step, we will ultimately reach the shore!

1219: Yesterday we bounced back on long positions to about 1800 points. Subsequently, the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points was announced, revealing that the Fed has no intention of holding Bitcoin, which caused Bitcoin to plummet to around 98744. This position happens to be near the support position of the 30-day moving average. This pullback is actually a good thing, as it digests the previous divergence. Overall, the bullish trend has not changed, whether it is for US stocks or Bitcoin. However, the market movements over the next few days this week need to be closely monitored, with a resistance level at 102000, which is the starting point for an upward break on the 4-hour chart. If it can return to the upper levels in the short term, the bullish trend will continue. Today’s main focus is on recovery, with a strategy of going long first and then short during the day. Long positions at 100000-100500, target 102000-102500. If it breaks 102500, watch for 103100. If it fails to break above and the rebound is weak, a short position can be opened with a target of 99800. Ethereum is in sync.

1218: Last night at 10:30 PM, after the US stock market opened, Bitcoin fell sharply, basically giving back the intraday gains within five minutes. The daily chart closed with a long upper shadow doji. This morning it has retraced a bit. Recently, the US stock market opening and closing times need to be closely monitored, as the main players like to use this point to wash out positions. It is currently at the support level around 104500, digesting the previous divergence. ETFs have seen net inflows for 14 consecutive days, with an average daily inflow of nearly 500 million USD. The daily bullish trend has not changed, but the 4-hour and hourly indicators are leaning towards bearish. After a wave of bearish digestion during the day, the strategy is to follow the idea of a retracement, mainly focusing on buying low, with buys between 103800-104200, and adding positions at 103600-103400, targeting 106600-107000. For Ethereum, buy between 3750-3780, targeting 3900-3950.

1217: The US stock market hits a new high again, and Bitcoin closely follows to reach a new high. Old Song mentioned in the past few days that Bitcoin will still follow the rise before the US stock market has a pullback. Currently, the Nasdaq futures quote is 22100, and the index quote is 20200, which is basically the same as yesterday's difference. After yesterday's pullback, the support level was quite good, with Bitcoin gaining 2500 points and Ethereum gaining 80 points. Currently, a significant voice in the market is that funds will flow out soon due to Christmas, and there may be fear of a pullback after reaching new highs. In fact, this kind of thinking is more about imagination; the market will not finish just because of a holiday. If there are good returns, capital never sleeps. The market is the market, and it will not be wrong. Currently, looking at ETFs, the daily inflows are almost around 500 million US dollars, and there is no outflow. MicroStrategy is still increasing its holdings, and USDT continues to be issued. For now, just follow the trend. Bitcoin is expected at 120000 in the medium term, and Ethereum at 5100. There is a divergence in indicators, so in terms of operations, we adopt a low position ratio for a large space to operate. In the absence of a significant downward breakout, intra-day operations are still about making long positions on pullbacks! Buy Bitcoin at 105200-105500, target 107000. If it breaks 107777, look at 109000. Add positions at 104800. Buy Ethereum at 3920-3940, target 4100-4130.

Currently, the expectations of Big Pie and Old Song are consistent, expecting a rebound around 103300 after a stop in decline. Friends who have entered should see about 2500 points of space in Big Pie within the day. Ethereum's rebound strength is weaker, but there should be around 40 points of space. The operation logic in a bull market is actually quite simple; divergences will be encountered frequently, and sometimes there will be multiple divergences. However, if a breakout occurs, it is also possible to follow the trend. Last week, I shorted close to the resistance level, and this week I will go long near the support level, reducing the position ratio a bit while taking a larger space. Breakout markets are prone to whipsaws, and even if I'm wrong, the cost won't be too high! Pay attention to Old Song, as the bull market will help to flip the position!

1216: Bitcoin has broken the upper resistance level of 103600, as well as the previous high of 104630, reaching a new high like the US stock market. The Nasdaq index and the futures index are about 1800 points apart; the futures represent expectations for the future market, and the 1800 points of long futures also indicate a sustained bullish sentiment in the US stock market. Currently, the continuous divergence of Bitcoin's daily trading volume and MACD does not seem to have a significant restraining effect on the current market. In a bull market, it is common to see repeated divergences, but we must remain vigilant. As it stands, Bitcoin is still stretching where it needs to stretch; if there is no significant correction in the US stock market, Bitcoin will likely follow suit. In terms of operations, we cannot short at resistance levels like last week; instead, we should consider going long by switching positions. Given the current market enthusiasm, the expected medium-term height for Bitcoin will be around 120,000 USDT. Ethereum has not effectively broken its previous high of 3980; if it does break, the medium-term box height is estimated to be around 5100. Bitcoin's 4-hour chart has a price difference of about 2000 points; we should first pay attention to the digestion of this difference. Without a significant increase in volume leading to a drop, we should consider going long at 103600-104000 with a target of 105700-106300 and add positions at 103300. For Ethereum, go long at 3910-3930 with a target of 3980-4010; if it breaks, look for 4020 to 4090.