Bitcoin stocks on spot exchanges are rapidly declining, reaching their lowest levels in recent years. From 2020 to 2022, stocks were growing, but after 2022 they began to fall sharply. Investors are actively withdrawing BTC from exchanges to cold wallets, which indicates a long-term holding strategy.

The decrease in stocks on exchanges limits the supply in the market, which can put upward pressure on prices. If demand remains stable, low supply can support price growth. Given the positive trend of Bitcoin in 2024-2025, this indicates a change in the balance of supply and demand in favor of the "bulls".

There is a possibility of a shortage of supply, which can push prices up if demand remains stable or increases. Historically, such stock reductions have led to significant price jumps.

RLUSD, Ripple’s regulated stablecoin, has reached a total supply of $120 million. There are now about 37.4 million RLUSD on XRPL, surpassing the supply on Ethereum, where growth has slowed and remains below 83.3 million RLUSD.

RLUSD initially grew rapidly on Ethereum, but has recently gained more traction on XRPL, likely due to the platform’s lower transaction fees.

Reaching the $120 million mark is a significant milestone for regulated stablecoins.

The Inter-exchange Pulse (IFP) shows the flow of Bitcoin between spot and derivatives exchanges.

When a significant amount of Bitcoin moves to derivatives exchanges, it signals an optimistic period, as traders open long positions.

However, when Bitcoin starts moving from derivatives to spot exchanges, it may indicate the beginning of a pessimistic period. This usually happens when long positions are closed and large investors reduce risks.

Today, the indicator has turned pessimistic, which may indicate a decrease in risk appetite and the beginning of a pessimistic phase.

Bitcoin continues to consolidate, showing signs of market stagnation. Network data, including the active address indicator, shows a decline in activity, which may indicate weak investor participation.

A “death cross” has recently formed between the 30-day and 365-day moving averages. While these indicators are fluctuating in a narrow range, the 365DMA remains in a downtrend, which may indicate a prolonged slowdown in activity. Transaction volume has also been declining since Q4 2024, which adds to concerns about investor sentiment and market liquidity.

Bitcoin is at a crossroads. In such a situation, it is important to focus on risk management, avoiding excessive leverage.

The increase in transactions on SunPump indicates increased interest in memtokens on the TRON network!

🔹 When transactions per token increase, TRX usually follows the trend, but this may indicate increased risk. Be careful with such spikes, which can signal volatility.

🔴 A decrease in transactions (red zone) indicates a loss of interest in the TRON market, which often leads to the formation of local lows in TRX.

🔹 Over 95 thousand tokens have already been created on SunPump, with over 2.84 million transactions since August 2024. The largest flow was observed between August and September, but short-term spikes can indicate a potential recovery!

🌟 Transactions per token are a valuable indicator of TRON market sentiment.

Ton Price Models analysis shows that TON has entered the 0.6x 250-day MA zone, which is a historically strong accumulation zone. This indicates that TON is undervalued, opening up opportunities for profitable investments.

How do Ton Price Models work?

0.6x – 0.8x Zones 🟢

Assets trading within these ranges from the 250-day MA often signal oversold levels and are strong buy signals. Historically, these levels have been ideal for accumulation before significant increases.

1.2x – 2.0x Zones 🔴

When TON trades above 1.5x – 2.0x of the 250-day MA, it indicates overheated conditions where profit-taking may occur.

Why is this important for investors?

TON in a profitable buying zone 📉 → Similar situations have previously led to significant price recoveries.

Ton Price Models provide a clear strategy for identifying buy and sell zones with precision.

Invest based on data, not emotions - use these insights to make smart decisions.

Retail investor demand for Bitcoin is picking up again after a long period of price stabilization. Retail investor activity has fallen by just 2% over the past 30 days, down significantly from the 20% decline in January.

Increased investor activity is usually accompanied by improved market sentiment, which has a positive impact on Bitcoin’s short-term structure.

The current consolidation phase may be coming to an end, opening up new prospects for the market.

Despite the recent temporary drop in Bitcoin’s price, the realized market cap has risen to a record $857 billion, indicating that the bullish cycle is not over yet.

The realized market cap takes into account the price at which each Bitcoin last traded. The increase in this indicator is due to the selling of long-term investors and the entry of new players into the market.

Long-term holders who have held Bitcoin for more than six months are selling at higher prices than they bought. New investors are absorbing this pressure by buying coins.

The share of long-term holders is now 39.74%, indicating that the market has not yet peaked. Investors should consider macroeconomic factors, but the long-term trend remains positive.

Bitcoin has yet to reach the overvalued zone in this cycle.

The data does not provide a clear answer as to whether the bull cycle is over. But given the approval of spot ETFs and Trump’s early pro-Bitcoin policies, there is reason to expect further growth.

The MVRV ratio is well below the peaks of previous cycles, and the explosive influx of new capital that usually signals the peak of the altcoin season has not yet occurred. This indicates the possibility of further market growth, so it is worth remaining patient.

However, even in a bull cycle, it is important to remain cautious. Risk management should be a priority for safe market navigation.

HX and F1CS tokens are actively bought on SunSwap. HX accounts for 65.88% of all purchases, while F1CS accounts for 25.58%. Other tokens account for 8.54% of purchases.

On the sell side, WTRX dominates with 83.94% of swaps, highlighting its role in providing liquidity. TUSD accounts for 2.37% of sales, while other tokens account for 13.69%.

TRX and WTRX are key trading pairs, actively used for both purchases and sales. USDT and other stablecoins such as USDC and DAI are often used for swaps, providing stability in the TRON DeFi space.

This data highlights the importance of TRX, WTRX, USDT, and other stablecoins in providing liquidity and stability on SunSwap.

The TRON ecosystem has been showing steady growth in the DeFi, memecoin, and gaming sectors since 2021.

🔸 Daily transaction fees consistently exceed $1 billion TRX, indicating high investor interest and activity, as well as liquidity inflows.

🔸 Compared to $ETH, TRON has outperformed it in USD fee revenue every month since May 2024.

Notably, in August 2024, TRON’s fee revenue reached $204 million, three times that of ETH.

This trend underscores TRON’s emergence as an important player in the blockchain market in a competitive environment.

The exchange whale ratio, which is calculated by dividing the 10 largest deposits on spot exchanges by total deposits, has reached a multi-year high. This indicator has been growing steadily since late 2024, although its pace has slowed somewhat in the last two weeks.

Historically, a decline in whale deposits on spot exchanges has often preceded a rise in Bitcoin. Given the significant influence of these market participants on Bitcoin price dynamics, analysts are closely monitoring the possible decrease in their assets on exchanges. If this indicator changes direction, it could signal a market recovery.

The Greed Index shows that we are still in a bull market, even during the recent correction. At its peak, it reached 16, but now it remains at 12. This indicates significant growth potential in the market.

Many on-chain indices remain stable, without much volatility. There is a possibility that a strong support line is in the $93,000-$95,000 range. So the correction could be completed by the end of this week.

Monitoring the net USDC flow shows the movement of USD Coin between wallets and exchanges. A positive flow (more deposits than withdrawals) can indicate increased liquidity of stablecoins on exchanges, which is a harbinger of market changes.

Why net USDC flow is important:

- Liquidity on exchanges can indicate the willingness of traders to buy crypto assets such as BTC, ETH, and others.
- Large flows of USDC can indicate the activity of institutional investors or whales preparing to accumulate assets.
- A sudden increase in the inflow of USDC can signal an increase in confidence in risky assets. Conversely, an outflow of stablecoins can indicate that market participants are moving funds for safety or to lock in profits.

Bitcoin’s recent price swings have left investors wondering whether the market is holding onto its bullish momentum. However, an analysis of futures market metrics offers valuable clues.

Bitcoin’s buyer-seller ratio, which shows who is more active in placing market orders, could be the key to understanding the situation. The recent reversal of this indicator at the 14-day moving average suggests that buyers are regaining power. This could mean that they will soon take control of the futures market.

If this trend continues and the ratio rises above 1.0, it could signal increased buying pressure, which could push the market to new highs.

Interesting news about Ethereum! Although the "ultra sound money" narrative has weakened a bit, the upside potential remains high.

- The current realized price of Ethereum is around $2.2k, which is well below the market price of $2.6k. This indicates that the asset is undervalued.

- The number of permanent Ethereum holders who are not selling is growing rapidly, which resembles the trend of Bitcoin.

- Selling pressure in the futures market is decreasing, indicating an increase in purchasing power.

- Institutional investors are actively accumulating Ethereum. BlackRock, Cumberland and others are buying large volumes, which helps reduce price pressure.

Despite the increase in total supply, demand for Ethereum remains strong.

The TonCoin market has seen a historic spike in risky investments such as derivatives, options, and lending. This suggests that speculative investors have increased their risk appetite following the recent price drop. An increase in risk appetite is often seen as a positive signal indicating an influx of liquidity into the TON ecosystem. At the same time, it is important to carefully manage risks and exercise caution as volatility may increase.

The Hash Ribbons indicator is once again signaling changes in the Bitcoin mining ecosystem. This tool tracks hashrate fluctuations and has already proven itself as a reliable signal for the market. Historically, it has only failed once due to the unpredictable effects of COVID-19. Usually, when Hash Ribbons is activated, it indicates optimal entry zones, both for medium-term positions and for long-term accumulation. In the past, every time this indicator has been triggered, Bitcoin has shown growth.

TON has reached historically low values ​​in the Normalized Metric Risk (NMR) for the medium to long term. This indicator evaluates the relationship between the current price and weighted moving averages using 50- and 374-day averages with logarithmic differences and time adjustments.

What does this mean?

For investors, this could be an interesting opportunity to start accumulating TON, taking advantage of the moment when the risk (or "valuation" of the asset) is at a minimum, indicating the potential for growth in the medium to long term.

Institutional players such as hedge funds, governments, and large corporations have traditionally used OTC platforms to purchase Bitcoin without affecting the market.

In September 2021, the OTC balance was around 480k BTC, and today only 146k BTC remain.

This decline continues, even after Bitcoin reached the $100k mark, indicating sustained demand.

When the balance is depleted, purchases will be made directly on exchanges, which could significantly affect the price of BTC.

Almost 1 million BTC are currently held on US exchanges.

Miners can also sell BTC via OTC, but their balance is around 117k BTC, and not all miners use OTC.