This means a reduction of another 50 basis points next year, which is moderate.
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Barclays: Expects the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts after June next year until mid-2026
ChainCatcher message, Barclays Bank stated that one of the factors that may keep U.S. interest rates high is U.S. (inflation) policy. In the December meeting, some FOMC participants clearly began to reflect expectations of tariffs in their inflation forecasts. Furthermore, even among those who did not adjust their official forecasts, many now believe that the balance of inflation risks tends to be upward.
Although Powell did not explicitly answer to what extent the Federal Reserve tends to view price level increases related to tariffs, we believe that, given the expectation that tariffs will lead to heightened inflation in the second half of 2025, especially against the backdrop of rising inflation rates in recent years, it will be a challenge for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting rates. We expect the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts after June next year and to resume cuts around mid-2026 after the inflation pressures caused by tariffs dissipate. In our baseline, we expect two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026, with a terminal rate of 3.25-3.50%.
The bullish outlook for the Bitcoin market in the first half of next year should be conservative. Don't have too high expectations. It is very likely that interest rate cuts will stop in the first half of the year. This circle is still greatly affected by policies.
Bitcoin's current possible decline is around 80K, which means that it will continue to decline. The price will rebound strongly here. The worst result is that the adjustment will end in March-May next year.
After that, the rising market will resume. The time cost of funds will eliminate many people. Survival is the most important thing.
DOGE has been adjusting at the daily chart level, patiently waiting for the adjustment around 0.33 has not yet ended; however, SHIBI and PEPE have both shown daily chart level divergences, with adjustment targets referencing linear positions, and the Mo Yin series should also take a break now.
Are the market leaders offloading? In this kind of market, going up and down, only a few cryptocurrencies are making new highs or maintaining their previous highs. The current trend is testing patience and determination.
When a one-sided trend rises, people hesitate to jump in. After finally getting on board, the trend doesn't pull up, and it keeps grinding until patience wears thin.
During this period, the overall performance of altcoins has been relatively flat. Some varieties have already broken through the highs before the decline. The market is still immersed in the recovery period after the last sharp drop, and it will slowly regain its vitality, waiting for an outbreak point to provide the market with a decent reason for an increase.
The market share of altcoins has touched the neckline and is expected to rise to a new high again, which is what everyone is looking forward to, isn't it?
The more I look at SOL, the more it resembles a wedge shape. Is this the rhythm for breaking through the trend line and taking off? Hold on tight, everyone says the target is 300, but let's first get past 265 before discussing further! $SOL
What do you think #CZ relies on to achieve freedom and success in life?
If we talk about talent, there must be people more talented than him; If we talk about ability, there must be people more capable than him; If we talk about the track, choosing the right track is the basic condition for success, otherwise you won’t even have the chance to participate, and many people who chose this track did so much earlier than him.
In fact, the surface reason for our inconsistency between knowledge and action is the inability to control our hands, or the lack of reminders; the deeper reason is a matter of thinking style. However, the factors that determine the thinking style are the establishment of trading philosophy. The trading and investment philosophy you believe in shapes how you perceive the trading market.
The trading and speculation market cannot be fully understood, and there are no fixed rules. We can only recognize a part of the market's characteristic appearance. Acknowledging our limitations prevents us from having unrealistic expectations of the market; it allows us to confidently engage with the trends we can understand, and to accept the profits we should earn and the losses we should incur.
The price trend of BTC will fluctuate or oscillate around 100K for a certain period of time. The current price is searching for a possible oscillation range, and the market trend in this range will provide us with answers.
However, the collective strong rebound of altcoins may signal the beginning of a new round of price increases. $BTC
A Brief Discussion on Technical Chart Analysis of Bitcoin's Upcoming Trends:
1. In 2017, 2019, and 2020, a complete flat wave structure was formed, with the wave 5 breaking through historical highs to initiate a super wave 1, and a double top pattern forming. Subsequently, from 2022 to 2023, it experienced a super wave 2 correction, which all seems natural.
2. The correction after the peak of 73K, which marked the 'top', should be considered the upper region of super wave 3. The subsequent movement is about to embark on the adjustment wave of wave 4, meaning what goes up must come down. However, this is based on technical logic analysis.
3. After an 8-month adjustment, rather than forming a bullish flag pattern, it is more accurate to say that the influence of major events has altered the price trend, logically based on expectations of interest rate cuts and election results.
4. Following the election results, Bitcoin's movement saw a rapid rise, reaching 100K in one month, starting from 49K, forming a classic wave structure of wave 3. The height is at 0.786 of the previous wave's peak. For the time being, it is highly likely that Bitcoin's price will continue to experience a period of consolidation and fluctuation for a considerable amount of time.
5. Our Opportunity: The main focus will shift to the explosive growth of altcoin markets, although some may worry about the rapid decline in this wave, with altcoins dropping 20%-50%. It is the gradual decline that should raise concerns. We can interpret this adjustment as a cleansing of leverage. At least we do not see signs of trend destruction, so there is no need for excessive worry.
6. Most altcoins have returned to the position after breaking through the bottom and confirmed the neckline. This is a good area and timing for accumulating assets. The market inherently possesses uncertainty; distrust leads to belief, belief leads to distrust. Different people have different perspectives.
A Brief Discussion on Technical Chart Analysis of Bitcoin's Upcoming Trends:
1. In 2017, 2019, and 2020, a complete flat wave structure was formed, with the wave 5 breaking through historical highs to initiate a super wave 1, and a double top pattern forming. Subsequently, from 2022 to 2023, it experienced a super wave 2 correction, which all seems natural.
2. The correction after the peak of 73K, which marked the 'top', should be considered the upper region of super wave 3. The subsequent movement is about to embark on the adjustment wave of wave 4, meaning what goes up must come down. However, this is based on technical logic analysis.
3. After an 8-month adjustment, rather than forming a bullish flag pattern, it is more accurate to say that the influence of major events has altered the price trend, logically based on expectations of interest rate cuts and election results.
4. Following the election results, Bitcoin's movement saw a rapid rise, reaching 100K in one month, starting from 49K, forming a classic wave structure of wave 3. The height is at 0.786 of the previous wave's peak. For the time being, it is highly likely that Bitcoin's price will continue to experience a period of consolidation and fluctuation for a considerable amount of time.
5. Our Opportunity: The main focus will shift to the explosive growth of altcoin markets, although some may worry about the rapid decline in this wave, with altcoins dropping 20%-50%. It is the gradual decline that should raise concerns. We can interpret this adjustment as a cleansing of leverage. At least we do not see signs of trend destruction, so there is no need for excessive worry.
6. Most altcoins have returned to the position after breaking through the bottom and confirmed the neckline. This is a good area and timing for accumulating assets. The market inherently possesses uncertainty; distrust leads to belief, belief leads to distrust. Different people have different perspectives.
Sun Yuchen's operation this time is quite traditional. First, he promoted banana marketing, then he boosted the Tron system, and finally released favorable news about TRX. TRX doubled in one day. Will you follow? If you follow, with the same amount of funds, you can only buy half the chips. If you don't follow, it will continue to rise!
XRP's operation this time has no extra moves. It's just rising, nothing else, just keep rising. If you want to change positions, you won't be able to get in. It will rise until you FOMO, and once you're in, you're stuck.
It's also suitable to "lie flat" in a bull market. Lying flat in a bull market leads to wealth, which is great!
It has been 40 days since the release of the view of the top of $BNB on June 19. It has fallen from $600 to $400, a full 30% drop. Now it has completely shown a downward trend. It is expected to return to the peak in half a year.
The next rebound high of $530 is still a short opportunity. I hope you are still active in the market in a few months. In the future, you will feel more and more that only by living long can you become a winner.
Don't hype good news anymore. All good news is a horn to send you away in the face of a downward trend. Light asset trading should be the next safe way to deal with the market.
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Bearish
$BNB 721U should be its highest point for a long time. It is not as rumored that BNB, as the leader of platform coins, will lead the second half of this bull market. This time it may disappoint everyone.
Unfortunately, it did not continue to strengthen and lead the market forward, but chose to break down, and even showed a long-term divergence until 520. There was a decent rebound. A rebound is a rebound, not a new high.
Has the big market started? BTC, JTO, MANTA, SOL and other currencies have made a lot of profit. How long can they continue to hold? The upper track of the channel is approaching! Will BTC rise to the challenge or turn around? The key node is here!
Yesterday, Bitcoin surged again, hitting a new high of $67,000. However, has this rally reached its peak? Many trading plans made profits yesterday. Should we cash in or hold on? Today we will review the trading we did some time ago. Let's look at WLD first. We reminded people to enter the market when its price was $2.1, mainly considering the pressure of unlocking. Although many people did not enter the market at this time, the coin performed strongly. In the spot trading plan, when it broke through the lifeline and stepped back to 2.60, it also reminded people of the second entry opportunity. It rose 15% yesterday. If the lifeline of the daily level can be maintained, the target is expected to reach $4.2, and the stop loss is still $4.2.
The long and short signals reversed! You have to fly!
The weekly chart closed with a bullish K-line combination, and the closing price was above the 120-day moving average and the lower track of the channel. This is a signal of stopping the decline and stabilizing. Don't be bearish anymore.
The daily chart trend is extremely fierce. This wave of rise BTC is expected to reach a short-term high of 67K and start to pull back. The pullback target reference is between 62K-63K. This range is also an opportunity for students who have not boarded the train.
Removing the seat belt and expecting takeoff, are you really not afraid of eternal damnation?
In the current market, there are still many bloggers who insist that 53K is the bottom and continue to sing bullish, letting the leeks enter the market. I don’t know whether it is because of the irrationality caused by being deeply trapped or the subjective will of not admitting defeat.
When you think it is the bottom and that the bull market is still advancing, you will find all kinds of good news to verify your point of view. This is a very terrible thing. There is no real understanding of what to do with the trend.
And the leeks are the ones who suffer!
You can be bullish, but you can’t blindly chase the long without risk awareness. Fund management and position control are your seat belts before takeoff. Many people have now removed their seat belts. The reason is that they think the seat belts are too heavy and not conducive to takeoff.
Bitcoin fell below 58K, which means that it took more than three months to complete the exchange of chips in the top area. Most retail investors held chips at 60K-70K, and of course they were trapped.
I thought it would stop falling and stabilize at 61500, but it has not broken through the 120-day moving average. Instead, a bearish pattern appeared at the rebound position, which is basically the same as the trend in November 21. History is really repeating itself.
Bitcoin accelerated its decline again today. Touching 52K will be a short-term low, but this position is a decline relay, not the bottom of this wave of decline; this does not affect the short-term operation at this position to bet on a rebound.
The strong rebound at the mid-term level, Jiu Ge believes, will appear around 45K. At this position, there will be a good strengthening trend. Large funds should enter the market later, not at the current node.
It is expected that this wave of adjustment will end at the end of July.