The main rhythm is that there was nothing last night and there is a lot today. It all depends on how you control your emotions. If you can control it correctly, you can make money.

Don't trade in the volatile market, or set a stop loss at the point 89600 given in the previous article, and wait for the opportunity. Overall, today is a small fluctuation. Although there are large funds at the pin, it is generally here after a large amount of goods were sold last night. Today's small fluctuations are all participated by small funds of retail investors. There is no clear situation. It is best to wait and see. It is estimated that everyone is waiting for the situation of the foreign market in the evening before taking action. Let's wait a while, or see which direction the main force will go before the opening of the market in the evening and make a decision.

The main force did not ship out completely, but only took part of the profit. If you want to sell all, you still have to pull it up again.

Analyze the main force's behavior, open the 1-hour cycle, BTC formed two peaks in the early stage of 89600, and rose last night and broke through the two peaks and rose, forming a large amount of liquidity through here. Since many technical flows make breakthroughs from here, the stop loss is below this. The main force worked in the middle of the night, returned the chips to retail investors and smashed them, and took away the stop loss of the wave of people who chased in last night's rise. After hitting the stop loss, the shorts left the market. After hitting the support, the bulls took the opportunity to enter the market and went out of a 15-minute rebound market. Now the 15-minute market is near the zero axis of macd. If the double lines stand on the zero axis, it is possible to go out of the reversal and continue to pull up and break the previous high. Is there a small stop loss opening opportunity? Yes, 89500 is an important support. It has stepped back once. Wait for the second step back to this area and turn around to go long. The stop loss is set below 89000. The stop loss of 500 points is to bet on it to continue to reach a new high.

The previous article just warned of the risks, why didn’t you listen to the advice? I got up in the middle of the night to pee and I made a short

All contracts have been closed and left the market. Now there is a divergence. Only the big cake still has the bottom position. The sentiment of the copycat has fallen. If you don’t run, you may lose a large part of your profits when you wake up tomorrow. There is such a probability!

Wait for the situation of the big cake and the second cake to be clear and understandable at a glance. It is not that it is horizontal at a high level, and then go to copycat.

If it is horizontal, there is something fishy. I am afraid that you will smash it, so I will leave and set a stop loss for the bottom position. See you tomorrow.

Key points of sentiment trading in the day of the cottage
1. BTC and ETH have started to rise, you can see it at a glance, at this time, pay attention to the cottage varieties that have risen in 5 minutes and have a large increase during this period
2. Cut to the cottage variety just selected, the distance between its position and the support and pressure line you drew in the daily line and the four-hour line. If it is very close to the support and pressure line, OK, you have to open a long order, and the stop loss for opening an order is below the previous low of the current cycle you are looking at. This previous low has a clear distinction between high and low
3. After entering the market, measure the length of the k with the largest amplitude in your cycle. Assuming it is 4%, then you add a moving stop loss that must be greater than 4%, which can not only lock in the maximum increase in the future but also prevent you from getting off the train halfway. If the maximum fluctuation is large, such as 13%, then it is not suitable, because the amplitude is too large, which means that it is not stable at present, and it is difficult to set a stop loss, which makes it easy for you to set a moving stop loss and immediately smash it.
4. After setting the stop-profit and stop-loss, you add a fixed loss. The fixed loss is adjusted according to the structure. When a new rising structure appears during the rise, the fixed loss is placed below the low point of the new rising structure, thus locking in the profit of the first structure.
5. Is the volume of entry sufficient to continue the current trend? What does it mean? You compare the cycle, such as the 15-minute cycle, and compare it with all the volumes of the previous band with tops and bottoms. If the volume of the positive line at your location is above the average level, then you have at least the inertia to rush up when you enter the market, at least scalp, or eat a large band. Anyway, the probability of stop loss is very small.

Why can the peak and trough become support?

The peak and trough are split in half from the middle, one half rises and the other half falls. Think about it, if there is not enough strong force to reverse the situation, will it continue the trend of the first half? Since the trend that was originally moving forward has turned around at the peak and trough, it means that there is a great energy here, just like a car moving at a high speed. Can you stop it by manually pushing it? Obviously not, the person will fly away. You can lean on a wall, but a wall can only stop it. This force can make the car stop and return directly to the starting point!

Since the cycle has a time attribute, long-term trading behavior forms a large cycle, so the capital investment energy of the large cycle is greater, and the effectiveness as a support is stronger

Then use the daily and weekly lines to draw all the highs and lows for trading, which also includes the area that has been sideways for a long time (it can be viewed as a whole)

When you see the K-line hit the support you drew on the daily and weekly lines within 15 minutes, you observe how the funds exert their strength. If it reacts violently here, just like you pull the carp that just bit the dog, the thief pulls vigorously, then you can intervene, bet on one direction, set a small stop loss, and get segmented profits if you bet right. If you bet wrong, at least you lose very little.

Some varieties have been falling all the way, without any callback. Why? Because the big guys have sold all the stocks, and there are too many chips to sell. So when a retail investor comes in, he will automatically become a swap hand. Why is the next point in the state of falling? Because the small retail investors who come in to take over the bottom are drilling in one by one. If there is a big fund drilling in, it will suddenly be a big negative line. This is called oversupply. It can't be sold in a short time, so it can only fall in the way of falling.

After understanding this principle, do you dare to blindly buy the bottom? Some varieties have no bottom. It is the first bottom until the main force exchanges all the chips. But then there are people who react and can't hold on halfway up the mountain and cut their losses. When there is no volume at all, that is, the floating chips are also thrown away, the rest are lying flat players! This is the real bottom.

Then we can only wait for the big guy to come and patronize again. Once the big guy comes, he will build positions intermittently in the bottom area with a large trading volume every once in a while. Or suddenly there will be good news one day, and the main force will not have time to delay in building positions, so he will just use up all the bullets, and a large positive line with a large volume will appear.

Exit the short position, be well prepared, and the adjustments are almost in place. Multiple spikes are hit near 86,000, so there should be support. Then go long at a level as close to 86,000 as possible, and place the stop loss below the longest needle, which is below 85,149. You can add some floating points appropriately to prevent the price from going up directly after a loss.

Who knows what good news this thing has, and why it’s so strong? I just discovered it a few minutes ago. It’s so strong that I have withdrawn my principal and the remaining profits are staying in it.

Today, the only product I participated in short-term long is called PNut. This product is unilateral and is not affected by selling sentiment. You can buy on dips within 5 minutes, and stop loss is also done within 5 minutes. You must strictly stop loss. This is suitable for ultra-short scalping experts to operate, and the fluctuation space is considerable.
If you don’t have experience in foreign exchange and gold intraday trading, please don’t take risks! I said it’s suitable for experienced ultra-short players!

Personal opinion, for reference only, strictly stop loss.

Someone asked me what to do now? Now the stampede has begun. Look for the stocks with the largest monthly and weekly gains and sell them at highs, because these stocks have risen the most, and once they are sold, the space they will create is also the most considerable. Of course, you must make sure to stop losses.
It is better to take the initiative to attack than to be beaten passively!

All the pull-ups are to hand over the chips to the receivers!

When does the callback end?
Looking at reversals, we all know that trading looks at the big while doing the small; many small cycle trends finish piecing together a larger trend. The small cycle is the microscopic form of the large cycle.
So when looking at trend reversals, first observe the small cycle of 15 minutes. At least a higher high and a higher low must appear in the 15-minute timeframe to slowly change the hourly cycle. An upward movement in the hourly cycle will then evolve into a 4-hour or even daily trend, so patiently wait for the gradual evolution of each cycle and do not enter halfway up the mountain.

All spot positions have been halved. Yes, the market is accelerating, with continuous positive news that could lead to a significant rise. However, acceleration can also lead to major pullbacks. I’ve reduced my position by half, so if there is a pullback, I can buy back in, keeping some capital available. The altcoins have started to show divergence, with some experiencing large gains and others large losses, indicating a divergence in sentiment. Moreover, during the upward process, the major cryptocurrency has been consolidating on the 4-hour chart, and there is a huge bearish candlestick. The contracts during the decline also saw an increase in positions, which clearly shows that short positions are also increasing. This reflects the overall positioning, so caution is necessary.

Based on the positive news, plus the K-line slope, whether it's 100,000 or 140,000, the probability is quite high. However, it is rare for an increase to happen all at once; it usually accompanies pullbacks, which is what makes it healthy. Otherwise, if the momentum is insufficient, it could easily lead to a crash and panic selling.

Consistent differences
It closed at a high level yesterday, but opened low today. I thought it was a strong expectation, but it opened low today, which is a strong turn to very weak
If you are shorting, look for such strong turn to very weak

It stayed at a low level yesterday, and I thought it would continue yesterday's sentiment and fall again, but it opened high today, which is a weak turn to very strong
If you are long, look for weak turn to very strong

Strong and weak The test results determine the strength (the test results are measured by the highest increase in a period of time, such as a week or a month, or the rising trend during this period)
Long strong (long when reaching the support area)
Short weak (short when reaching the pressure area)

It is not mindless long and short, but requires strategy
It is necessary to find the emotional node, such as when the big cake and the second cake are in high mood, the weak turns to strong, and then the certainty of following up and going long increases a lot

When the big cake and the second cake are both falling and flashing or the sector is in a collective decline, the strong turns to weak, and the rise is good, a big negative line engulfs the column and breaks the support near the previous high, then you must follow up and go short

What you are betting on is probability. Since it is probability, there is no absolute, and stop loss must be strictly controlled.

Entry Methods
Using Bitcoin as an example

1. Identify the Trend
As a regular technical trader, a daily chart is generally sufficient (value investors can use weekly or monthly charts)

Daily Chart Period
Undoubtedly an uptrend; the highs and lows are moving up
Identify supply and demand
Supply Zone Previous High 73650
Demand Zone Previous Low 66822.5

4-Hour Chart Period
Undoubtedly an uptrend; the highs and lows are moving up
Supply Zone Previous High 77179.1
Demand Zone Previous Low 75714.2

1-Hour Chart Period
Supply Zone Previous High 81568
Demand Zone Previous Low 75714.2
Undoubtedly an uptrend; the highs and lows are moving up

15-Minute Chart Period
After experiencing a divergence, the new low compared to before is 78500
Supply Zone Previous High 81848
Demand Zone Previous Low 78500

How to select high and low points: use the theory of 'Chan' to distinguish segments. The connecting line between two adjacent top formations and bottom formations is called a segment. There must be at least one independent candlestick between the top and bottom formations (this candlestick does not contain the previous and the next).

The Key Comes

1. Aggressive Strategy (Strict Stop-Loss Control)
The daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour trends are all upward, only the 15-minute chart shows divergence, so look for points of divergence turning into consistency on the 15-minute chart to go long. Since it's a 15-minute entry, strictly set the stop-loss at the turning key point of the 15-minute trend, which means it cannot break 78500, the stop-loss is below 78500.

2. Conservative Strategy (Entry at Resonance Points)
What does this mean? Find overlapping areas in 4 different periods to enter long.
List all previous highs and lows and let the numbers speak (previous highs and lows are the most competitive areas)
81568
78500
77179.1
75714.2 (same point for 1-hour and 4-hour)
73650

So the result is either focus on the resonance point 75714.2 to find a turning point to go long

Or enter long when the candlestick breaks into the area between 73650-75714.2

Whether it's an aggressive strategy or a conservative strategy, the success rate depends on the strength of the candlestick at the turning point. If it's an easily visible strong bullish candlestick, then you must enter. If wrong, just take the stop-loss; if right, you get a trade with a very high risk-reward ratio.

Personal opinion, for reference only. If you have any questions, feel free to leave a message.

Open the 1-hour focus on that big bullish candle and the small bearish candle that just appeared (this is a reduction position bearish candle, meaning it was formed by profit-taking, not by short positions increasing)
Big Bullish Candle 180 million trading volume 2400 points
Small Bearish Candle 50 million trading volume 900 points
180 million ÷ 2400 points = 75,000
50 million ÷ 900 points = 55,000
What does this mean?
It costs 75,000 to push up one point
It costs 55,000 to push down one point

This indicates that the cost of falling is lower
So what does this indicate? Does it mean it will fall? Not necessarily
But it indicates there is a disagreement here!

So we still have to see how the main force chooses. If it pushes up while facing disagreement, then it is a strong shift from weak to strong. The main force definitely has a solid logic for pushing up. Since I do not study fundamentals, I won't analyze the reasons blindly

Since the main force has started to reduce positions, even though it's just a little, it's best for us to learn from the main force and also reduce some positions.

Just have a rough idea in mind.

Personal opinion, make your own decisions, and manage risk well.

We are now in a phase of full-scale altcoin explosion, focusing on emotional divergence. When should we implement risk control to preserve profits?

First, we need to check if there is a significant bearish candle appearing for Bitcoin and Ethereum in the short term.
Secondly, we need to assess the overall sentiment of altcoins. The most direct way is to observe if all cryptocurrencies collectively start to retract. If the number of rising cryptocurrencies remains high in the short term, hold your position. However, if more than half of the cryptocurrencies begin to retract, even if Bitcoin and Ethereum are still fluctuating at high levels, we need to raise our risk control.
Typically, we do not set stop-loss orders unless it's a breakeven loss after opening a position. Stop-loss considerations only arise after a divergence occurs to prevent a collective waterfall decline and significant profit retracement.

By opening the 4-hour or daily charts of Bitcoin and Ethereum, you will clearly see that we are currently in a strong offensive phase, with each candle being a solid bullish candle. What does divergence refer to? It's when a doji appears, and a bearish candle engulfs the previous ones at the hourly level or above. This is a time to be cautious, paying attention to the trading volume and open interest at the bearish candles. If the trading volume is large and the open interest shows a significant decline, then short positions are entering, which requires caution. If the decline is due to position reduction, it might still be okay to hold on, as it could just be some profit-taking, and there might still be funds coming back in.

No one will easily short with a large position without clear logic from the main players; this is crucial to understand.

No one can predict the peak. We can only speculate on where the attack might reach under historical high and low pressures. For breakthroughs above historical highs like BTC, it is an unexplored territory, and all the selling pressure above has been absorbed. Theoretically, it doesn't suggest a peak; it all depends on how much profit the main players want to take. Just follow along and pay attention to the signals indicating the exit of main players. If the short-term upward structure is damaged, we need to be cautious. We are not afraid of sideways movement, but we fear the destruction of the upward structure.

GFT has just broken through an important resistance level, experiencing a long-term decline and accumulating a large number of short positions. If it explodes, it will take out a lot of short sellers, leading to a breakout and an inertia surge. If there is additional funding later to ignite it, there is a chance to reach an unexpectedly high level. It may be worth taking a small position for a gamble. There are not many opportunities with Bitcoin and Ethereum; only ultra-short traders can capitalize on arbitrage, which requires high technical skills and has limited operability. Therefore, one can look for suitable altcoins to catch the breakout point. Fuhaitang has mentioned that futures are all about breakout; one successful breakout is enough for a good meal. Stop-loss can be appropriately enlarged, and it is advisable to use funds that won't cause pain when aiming for a breakout.

This is a personal opinion; please make your own decisions and manage risks accordingly.

Share my notes.