11.13 Today's post is a record article

Ethereum does not drop below $1500 in 60 days, a bloodbath for the bulls. We issue a "2 Bitcoin" package to everyone in the gold turtle speculative group, which is our affirmation of the market, for reference only.

Old fans can just follow this account, with updates mainly from this account.
Because today an old fan asked us how confident we are about the market going forward, so we post this article for the record.

Today's date: 2024/11/13

As long as we touch this peak, the subsequent trend position will be maintained, only doing reduction or increase operations, not doing swing trading now.
$ETH

11.16 Ethereum long position data

This is the real Ethereum position data of this rising market that we obtained using "python", as shown in the data below.

1. During the entire rise, the average price of long positions has been rising. It is obvious that a large number of retail investors have been chasing long Ethereum, and the average holding time has reached an astonishing value of "85%", and the long position accounts for "over 90%".

2. The average holding ratio of long and short large investors, "long large investors are 98%, which is equivalent to the large short positions have basically exploded, and the remaining are all large long positions.
The greed index of the long side has even hit the highest value of "95" so far in 21 years

3. Reference data alone does not mean that there will definitely be a collapse, but we can know that if the current market really starts a bull market, it will undoubtedly be a carnival for retail investors.

Looking back at the previous bull markets, each time when everyone was not optimistic, but when there was a lot of short data, it was opened. Could it be that the leveraged lender wants to start the bull market at a loss this time?

In less than two months, everyone will know the value of this article.
The above content and data are exclusively provided by Golden Turtle Investors. They are for reference only and should not be regarded as investment advice.

Is the bull market really starting?

Answer: Definitely not

Those who are looking at the bull market now will be miserable within two months.
Because it is impossible to have the previous bull market at this stage. At most, it is like the current market. Bitcoin has risen sharply and broken through the previous high. It is absolutely impossible to have a flourishing market. 90% of people know that Bitcoin has broken through the previous high, which should be a bull market, but the threshold of Bitcoin is too high. 90% of funds will flow to the cottage. Since the cottage is basically at the bottom, if the bull market starts, the leveraged lender will bear the "contract" and "spot" compensation of the cottage.

Why did there have a flourishing bull market in the past? Because the user volume was not large, but now with this user volume, if there is a bull market, it is only possible to start a real bull market after the entire crash, so that the long retail investors have no chips or dare not enter the market.

So the current rise is just a normal market rise, and it does not belong to the start of a bull market.

11.16 Ethereum Market Reminder

There are more and more reasons for Ethereum's collapse. You can add a part of the current price, and then add positions near 3260. The total position does not exceed the original single position. All the positions that were taken profit yesterday can be added.

If you want to move up and add positions, you can add 3% for every 50 points increase. The final position does not exceed the original position, and it can account for 20%-30% of the total position
$ETH #市场回调，观望还是上车？

How many black swan events in the crypto market have you experienced?

1. Mentougou incident in February 2014: Bitcoin plummeted 86.3%
In February 2014, the Mentougou incident was regarded as one of the most serious events in the history of the cryptocurrency circle. At that time, the world's largest Bitcoin exchange MTGOX was hacked and lost nearly 850,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 7% of the total number of Bitcoins in the world. This incident not only caused the price of Bitcoin to plummet by more than 80%, but also triggered a crisis of trust in the cryptocurrency market.

2. September 4, 2017 incident: market value evaporated by 80%. In 2017, the cryptocurrency market experienced huge fluctuations, and the market value evaporated by 80% in just a few days. Prince BCH fell from 4700USDT/coin to 70USDT/coin. Investors suffered heavy losses in this crisis, but it was this experience that made people understand the complexity of the cryptocurrency market more deeply.

3. March 12, 2020: Ethereum plummeted to around $80. On this heartbreaking day, this incident made people see the impermanence and uncertainty of the cryptocurrency market. Despite this, the belief in the huge potential and value of cryptocurrency remains firm.

4. May 19, 2021: 600,000 contract dogs were liquidated This was a shocking incident. 600,000 contract dogs were liquidated overnight, and countless investors suffered huge losses. The one who suffered the most losses was the big toief, who went long and bought all the popular and old-fashioned cottages except Bitcoin during the plunge. After this incident, he disappeared from the crypto market. The single currency he held suffered the most losses was the Ethereum contract. This incident once again reminded us that the cryptocurrency market is full of risks and uncertainties.

5. Luna Black Swan Event in 2022: Crisis in the DiFi Field The Luna Black Swan Event dropped from more than $100 to 0.0000 in a week, a single-day drop of 99.9%. This event also marked a major turning point in the cryptocurrency market, triggering a major crisis in the field of decentralized finance (DFI), which had a profound impact on the market.

6. FTX Explosion in 2022: Market Confidence Crisis

The FTX explosion triggered a crisis of confidence in the entire cryptocurrency market, which dealt a severe blow to the market. The Ethereum standard disk fell by more than 40% in 4 hours. Although the market has been relatively friendly to us this year, these tragic events still sounded the alarm for us, reminding us to stay vigilant at all times.

11.16 We are still looking up to Bitcoin and Ethereum

Bitcoin has returned to around 92,000, but Ethereum is still below 3,100, seemingly waiting for everyone to get on board…

Can Ethereum really catch up? Will it correspond to Bitcoin’s high again?

If you don’t give up holding Ethereum, it will become your biggest nightmare in the crypto world when it crashes.

#市场回调，观望还是上车？ $ETH

Today I will tell you a story "Thinking Carefully"

In 2022, a college student made 1.75 million dollars by shorting Luna. There are three key points in this story.

First: To make 1.75 million USDT by shorting, do you know how much principal is needed? First of all, shorting is not as good as longing, and the margin will be reduced accordingly. From the so-called profitable account data at that time, if you need to make a profit of 1.75 million USDT, you need 30,000 USDT, because the decline exceeds 60%, there is basically no position-equivalent profit, and the profit will become smaller and smaller. On the contrary, the profit of longing will become larger and larger, because your margin will rise according to the currency price, so basically the decline exceeds 60%, and the 0.0000 behind is meaningless.

Second: On that day, the currency circle users became very inactive due to the collapse of Luna, and even the daily activity became less and less, but due to the outbreak of this news, the number of registrations on a certain trading platform reached 30,000 on that day, and these 30,000 users were all new members.

Third: A college student's profit from shorting Luna was directly transferred to a cold wallet instead of cashing it out. The earliest transaction in the cold wallet address was in 2014, and it was a transfer of 200,000 USDT. The idea is that "this college student already held millions of virtual currencies 8 years ago."

What can we see from this incident?

A: After the leek crash, although user activity decreased, a large number of new users poured into the market due to the fermentation of a piece of news.

Everyone should use their brains more, many things are not what they seem...
The above content is provided by Golden Turtle Investors for reference only.

$BTC $ETH #PNUT走高

11.16 Ethereum position increase reminder

Please remember to check the article below. We are talking about Ethereum position increase today. Continue to short Ethereum. Never go long before Ethereum crashes once.

Be patient and wait for the market to fluctuate. Don't be too anxious or overweight. Just control your position.

The countdown to the collapse of Ethereum begins

———— 57 ————

Please remember to check the article below, quote/forward/comment
Let us witness the collapse of Ethereum together!

A piece of advice for PNUT holders

This currency is a pure harvesting currency. As for how others make money, we cannot know the details, but we can be sure that it is "win-win cooperation between the project party and some non-project parties". Observe the top 20 addresses carefully, and the initial holders of PNUT are not very ideal. Then why did it explode during the rise of the big cake? Because the project party needs win-win cooperation, publicity, retail investors, and heat.

But we still don't have the idea of ​​holding it short, because there are some situations in the crypto circle that "no matter which side you choose, you will be harvested."

I can only remind everyone not to imagine too beautifully, so as not to be severely harvested.
#宾州宣布储备比特币 $PNUT

11.15 Subsequent trend reminder

Ethereum will soon begin to collapse and fall below 1500. Don't expect Ethereum to be shoulder to shoulder with Bitcoin. Even if Bitcoin rebounds to 93,000, Ethereum will be at most 3300. When Bitcoin was 93,000 before, Ethereum was at least 3440. There was a "high spread" at the top, which means that it is in the layout. After that round of bull market starts, Ethereum will be lower than the previous high price, and then wait for the bulls to get on board?

Answer: Unprecedented, this is the only time so far. Because many brainless leeks are still frantically buying Ethereum at the bottom, they don't know that this is most likely buying at the top.

Whether you agree with our point of view or not, remember to like, comment and forward the article quoted below. We are not afraid of being slapped in the face, nor are we afraid of not being able to send two bitcoins. This is also our confidence and affirmation of the market.
#美国零售销售数据即将公布 $ETH

11.15 Ethereum position reduction reminder

Temporarily stop profit, keep 5% of the position, wait for rebound before adding positions, add positions near 3260, near 3350, the total position does not exceed the original single position.

If there is no rebound after reducing the position, but directly falls below 3000, then wait for the rebound to 3080-3100 before adding positions. The possibility of a direct waterfall is small, and it needs to fluctuate, so don't worry
$ETH

11.15 Ethereum Market Reminder

This issue of Ethereum will let many new investors and retail investors know the "cruelness of the market". Just now, the long entry rate of Ethereum near 3050 was 25 times that of the short position, which is equivalent to 104 people entering the market, 100 long and 4 short. 90% of people still think that the callback is an opportunity to get on the train. Why does this group pay so much attention to Ethereum?
Because the risk of copycat is high, the threshold of big cake is high and the profit space is limited, it is believed that the probability of Ethereum's rebound is very high.

Even most holders think that the bull market has started because Bitcoin has broken new highs, but few people have thought carefully about whether this is a game. Now is different from the past. Currently, there are hundreds or thousands of currencies that can use perpetual contracts on exchanges. Unlike before, if the bull market really starts, these cottages that have not risen "Are the leverage lenders waiting for everyone to get on board and give money?"

But now it is highly likely that it will not collapse directly, and it will continue to fluctuate or rebound slightly. This wave of harvesting must be fast. When the real decline harvesting begins, there will not even be a chance for the bulls to react.
#BTC冲破9万 $ETH

Regarding the fans' reply to the question of "position management"

1. Assuming that 1000U is divided into 5 positions, each position is 200U, 200U is placed in the contract account, and 800U is placed in the spot account, then will 800U be useless?

Answer: No!
Because when you use 200U as a sub-position, assuming that you have lost 100U, you need to adjust the average opening price at the critical position, then you need to transfer 300U to the contract account, and then add 200U, adjust the average opening price, and after the adjustment is completed, set the stop loss to only lose 200U according to the actual situation. The meaning is that once the average opening price is adjusted, the stop loss position that originally wanted to lose one sub-position needs to be moved down. No matter how you add positions, the loss of a single transaction is best controlled at 30%-50%, ensuring that the next position can still be opened with 200U, and adjusting the average opening price once.

2. Assuming that I use 3x leverage, a sub-position is fully entered, how to reduce the position and adjust the average opening price?

Answer: Increase the leverage to 5 times and release the margin. Then use part of the released margin to increase the position and adjust the average opening price. No matter how the leverage is increased, it cannot exceed the loss of a single sub-position.

3. What is the lazy step-by-step position increase method

Suppose you are very optimistic about the trend of holding short positions, but you think the market will rise a bit, but you don’t want to go long, you only want to be short, and you want to increase your position and use 2 sub-positions to enter, then first open a position of 5% in the two sub-positions. Take Ethereum as an example, "For every 50 points increase, increase the position by 3%-5%". Adjust according to the actual situation, you can add 100 points or 30 points, depending on whether the line is extreme or whether the shock area is large.

In fact, trading is very simple. When you know enough useful methods, then execute it, then it is difficult for this market to bring you from a period of originally correct market to the wrong market.
#金龟游资 #仓位管理与运用

Welcome to quote/share the article below

Ethereum will fall to 1500 or even below 1000 within 60 days. If you are dissatisfied with this article, please comment and forward the article below, and then let us witness it together.

If Ethereum touches 2950 to form support and then rebounds to around 3080-3100 today, you can continue to increase your position with floating profits.

Hold short until Ethereum crashes once. When people panic, that is when we really enter the market to buy the bottom and hold long.
#加密货币总市值破3万亿美元 $ETH

Our understanding and teaching of trading

As long as you read and understand the following content carefully, you can directly step out of the leek zone.

1. Stop loss in the wrong direction

Suppose we are short at 3000, but the market rises to 3500, but our average opening price of 3000, the key defense position is 3080, breaking through the defense position also means that we have stopped loss, then the market rises to 3500 or 4500, what does it have to do with us?
Answer: None of it has anything to do with it.

So what you need to find is the breakthrough of the key pressure position. Don't worry about the waterfall after leaving the market. This is a low-probability event. It is better to stop loss 10 times and never hold a single order.

Suppose 2700 is short, 2750 stop loss, 3100 is short again, 3180 is stop loss again, 3300 is short again, 3400 is added, until now, has the actual position suffered losses in the entire transaction process? Answer: No!
And now it only needs to fall to around 2700, then we have already made a very considerable profit, right?

Let's assume that I'm shorting, and the base position is 5% at 2700, with 5 times leverage. I add 5% position every time it rises 100 points. Can I get out of the car? I add 10% position every time it rebounds 100 points after falling 200 points. Can I get out of the car?

So as long as there is an error in your transaction, the rise above your stop loss has nothing to do with you, so it is difficult for us to understand why there are always people who carry orders. What is the meaning of carrying orders in this market? Do you have business data? This market is not like stocks. You can also get news from the content of relevant business reports to carry orders.

2. What is a position division?
Answer: If I have 1000U now, I need to divide it into 5 positions, each position is 200U, and the maximum position to enter the market at a time/the loss cannot exceed 1 position. When you reach 2000U, the position will become 400U/position. If you make 10,000U, the position will become 2000U/position. The most important thing in this process is "floating profit plus position"

3. Profit and loss ratio is the core

What is the winning rate of those who really make money in this market? I can tell you clearly that no one can get back 40%.

The recently popular Langlang has a winning rate of 29%,

Mo Hongchen, who made 800 million in the real-time hot money of the external station in 22 years, has a winning rate of 22%,

Xiaofeng, who made more than 100 million by shorting Luna in 22 years, has a winning rate of 17%,

Stop loss is the norm in the market. If you can't even accept the norm, how can you have extra thoughts to judge the market?

11.14 Ethereum will definitely collapse

If it falls below 1500, it will completely wipe out the bulls. It may even fall below 1000 and completely become a copycat. You can go long on any currency, but don’t go long on Ethereum.

We are not afraid of being slapped in the face. For the article quoted below, if it does not fall below 1500 dollars, two bitcoins will be sent to everyone for unpacking, but we hope to get everyone’s help to keep us on the hot articles.

Come on, let us witness it together!
#以太坊必崩 $ETH #币安获CCData最高评级

11.14 Ethereum position increase reminder

We will never hold long positions unless Ethereum crashes once. Although some floating profits have been generated, it is still far from our expected target.

If it falls below 3000 and then rebounds to test around 3080-3100, continue to increase positions with floating profits. If it does not fall below 3000 or does not rebound after falling below 3000, keep the original position and do not increase positions with floating profits.

Note: You can go long on any currency, but never go long on Ethereum
#币安获CCData最高评级 $ETH

11.14 Ethereum's collapse is imminent

We believe that it will fall below 1500 within 60 days. During this period, what we need to do is to flexibly operate position management. This "top" is bound to be achieved. As for why we are so sure, please see the first article pinned to this account.

The high position of Ethereum and Bitcoin has become more and more outrageous, so it is highly likely that Ethereum will completely become a "real copycat" because there are too many long positions. Just like when the Ethereum ETF was launched, we told everyone "our view is that it will definitely crash", because people are selling Bitcoin and holding Bitcoin, then Ethereum is destined to become a harvester, but this time our view is that Ethereum "will definitely crash"

Crash and crash are two concepts. Crash is a long-term or short-term deep correction, and crash is a day of no recovery. The idea is that after falling below 1500, it is basically impossible to reach 2000 again, but in any case, do not hold a heavy position, just control the position, the leverage is recommended to be 5-10 times, and it is recommended to split the position 5/1. If the defensive position is touched, leave the market directly and do not carry the order.
$ETH