In terms of market conditions, with the release of April CPI data, the price of Bitcoin has risen sharply. Yesterday's K-line trend was relatively ideal, with a sharp rise and a certain amount of energy. This K-line basically confirmed the head and shoulders bottom structure with 56,000 as the bottom, and the short-term bull market was confirmed. The pressure level is still around 67,000. On the one hand, this is the upper edge of the high-level adjustment descending channel, and on the other hand, this is also the neckline of the head and shoulders bottom structure. The large level is still oscillating at a high level. The market may fluctuate within the range until the high-level oscillation range of 56,000-74,000 is completed, and Bitcoin will start a new upward trend. Be patient and hold positions.

ETH linked trend, exchange rate to new lows, observe whether the market will have an oversold rebound process.

In terms of cottages, SOL and SOL ecology are relatively strong, and other sectors have no obvious strong appearances. They are mostly linked trends, and long-term layout can continue as planned.

JTO: The first largest liquidity protocol on the SOL chain, with relatively high fundamentals and strong trends, and a new high is possible in the short term.

ONDO: Sideways at high level. In this round of adjustment, ONDO is one of the more resistant representatives. As the leader of the RWA sector, a new high in the future market will be inevitable. In the short term, it is currently fluctuating in the range of 0.7-0.95.

TIA: The second bottom is not strong, mainly linked, and there is no obvious sign of demand intervention. Recently, with the emergence of high-quality modular projects such as EigenDA, and the significant reduction in L2 interaction fees after the Ethereum Cancun upgrade, TIA is under increasing competitive pressure. The form is still looking for a bottom, and a new rise will start after the bottom is built in the future market.

PENDLE: Strong linkage rebound, support is near 4, and after the short-term rebound, it will make a right bottom again. If it can get effective support above 4, this bottom is likely to be near this position. As an innovative interest rate swap agreement project, PENDLE has very good fundamentals. Although it has been affected by the negative impact of the Eegenlayer airdrop rules, in the medium and long term, PENDLE still has a lot of room for value discovery.

On the macro level, affected by the non-agricultural employment data that was lower than expected, the US dollar index continued to be under pressure, and the Nasdaq continued to rebound rapidly and is expected to hit a new high this week. Powell did not elaborate on the latest statement on monetary policy, but judging from the current economic situation, if the Fed does not change the interest rate in September, there is a high probability that the interest rate will be cut by the end of December. Now the market has adjusted its expectations from one interest rate cut to two interest rate cuts this year. I estimate that market liquidity will start to improve in the second half of the year, and the earliest will be in the third quarter.
Regarding ETFs, the total inflow was US$217 million yesterday, and Grayscale GBTC had a net inflow of about US$4 million for the second consecutive day. Hong Kong Ethereum ETF has maintained a single-day net subscription for 4 consecutive trading days. Yesterday, the net subscription was 999 ETH, and the total holding of Ethereum is currently 17,280. (Hong Kong crypto ETF supports the spot subscription and redemption mechanism. Net subscription means that the difference between the subscription amount and the redemption amount within a certain period of time is positive, that is, more buying than selling, and vice versa. Net redemption).
The SEC has postponed its decision on the next steps for Invesco Galaxy's Ethereum ETF, setting its next deadline to July 5, 2024 to approve or disapprove the proposed spot Ethereum ETF, according to a filing on Monday. The SEC said it was appropriate to designate a longer period for issuing an order approving or disapproving the proposed rule change to allow sufficient time to consider the proposed rule change and the issues raised therein. Judging from the current progress of events, the possibility of Ethereum spot ETF passing in the short term remains extremely low.
"Summary of the Manuscript of the Bitcoin L2 Founder Discussion Before the Hong Kong Conference" Jeff said that Merlin Asset's bridge entry and exit were not well prepared, too many assets exceeded control, the user experience was greatly reduced, and the selling pressure of airdrop users was too large. In the first six months, users received airdrops and sold them; BMAN suggested that Chinese projects exchange coins after TGE and organize Chinese Bitcoin Ecological Fund; "Everyone dislikes Chinese projects, and then Chinese people dislike their own Chinese projects", and they are viewed under a microscope by users, exchanges and various VCs. I'm not looking at Merlin under a microscope. To be honest, the current version of Merlin is really average, and the user experience is poor. The main reason is that after Bitcoin is transferred to Merlin, people will feel like their coins have entered a black box, which makes them feel very insecure. From my personal point of view, unless Merlin undergoes a very big change in the future, I am unlikely to use Merlin again.
According to Binance Research, the total market value of cryptocurrencies fell by 11.3% in April. TON and BNB showed relative resistance with a 1% increase and a small drop of 1.4% respectively; Merlin Chain grew the fastest among the top ten public chains, with a TVL of more than $1 billion; the protocols worth noting are Pendle and Hyperliquid, with Pendle TVL exceeding $5 billion and cumulative trading volume exceeding $15 billion, while Hyperliquid TVL exceeded $435 million; four of the top five NFTs in terms of trading volume in April were based on Bitcoin. PENDLE is still optimistic.
DeFiLlama data shows that the trading volume of Solana on-chain DEX on May 5 was $1.097 billion, surpassing Ethereum to rank first. In addition, the trading volume of Ethereum on-chain DEX yesterday was $998.67 million, ranking second; the trading volume of BSC on-chain DEX yesterday was $482.09 million, ranking third. Ethereum is still the first public chain in the universe, there is no doubt about that. But Solana may be the main narrative of the public chain in this round of bull market. In the current market, among all the public chain ecological projects, only the SOL one has the best performance.
On the chain, the VDD indicator is rapidly falling and cooling, which indicates that the "old currency" has stopped moving on the chain, and the first large supply in the bull market has ended.
In terms of market conditions, the market adjusted and stepped back as expected. Yesterday, Bitcoin went up and fell back, but the good point is that there was no supply follow-up today, and a stop signal appeared at a small level. Up to now, the trend of Bitcoin at a small level is still healthy. After the opening of the U.S. stock market tonight, the market will show a more realistic supply and demand relationship. Now Bitcoin is still on the right side of the "bottoming out" confirmation trend. It does not necessarily have to go above 6w, but it cannot break 6w. If it breaks, it may cause the bottom to fail. In terms of the large-scale trend, it is still expected to rise in relays. Continue to hold positions and wait patiently for new trends to emerge.
ETH linkage trend
As for the altcoin, there is still no hot spot in the altcoin. This adjustment trend will be more favorable for the future market. There must be a freezing point of emotions, no money-making effect for a long time, and a long-term oscillating trend, before the bottom will be polished out. You can continue to build positions as planned, ignore short-term trends, and do long-term things.
Fear index 68

Bitcoin stabilized and rebounded at the extreme support level above 56,000. Now it has returned to the high-level oscillation zone and is oscillating. The current pattern can take 56,000 as the bottom to move out of the right pattern, and then form a bottom structure with 56,000 as the bottom. Then 56,000 will be the lowest point of this round of adjustment. The small-level support on the right is around 60,000. You can step on it, but you can't miss it. If the right side is confirmed and then continues to rise, the high-level pattern will be very beautiful. The weekly level closed with a long lower shadow with volume, which is suspected to have found the bottom and has a trend of ending adjustment and turning to oscillation. Continue to observe. The large level is still judged to be an upward relay structure. After the oscillation ends, it will take a new upward trend. Continue to hold positions. The short-term pressure is in the range of 64,000-67,000.
ETH linkage trend still maintains the ETH/BTC price in the range of 0.048-0.052 to build a bottom.
In terms of cottages, after more than a month of adjustment, a large number of cottages are in a value trough. In the short term, the altcoin is still in the oversold rebound stage, mainly in linkage, and will move out of the bottom structure later. After the bottom is confirmed, the price of altcoins will start to rise sharply, and the market value share of Bitcoin will also enter a downward channel. Patiently wait for the arrival of altcoins, focusing on: new public chains, SOL ecology, AI, re-staking bottom and other tracks.
Panic index 71

#Powell press conference content overview#
1. Interest rate outlook: The current policy is restrictive; the next adjustment of policy interest rates is unlikely to be an interest rate increase; if interest rates are to be raised, evidence needs to be seen that the policy is insufficient to reduce inflation to the target level; if inflation becomes more persistent If the economy remains strong and the labor market remains strong, then it may be appropriate to delay a rate cut. Decisions will be made on a case-by-case basis and depend on the data; it is not known how long it will take for a rate cut; serious employment problems will be needed to respond to a rate cut.

2. Inflation outlook: Inflation is still too high and there is a lack of recent progress. The outlook is uncertain, and short-term inflation expectations have risen; gaining greater confidence in inflation may take longer than previously expected; inflation is expected to fall this year, but Confidence in this is lower.

3. Economic outlook: The labor market remains relatively tight but the balance has improved; the potential output of the U.S. economy has increased significantly due to immigration; where does the discussion of refuting the stagflation scenario come from.

4. Balance sheet reduction: Slowing down the pace does not mean that the scale of balance sheet reduction will be smaller than expected. The current slowdown is to ensure a smooth process.

Powell's press conference statements were basically one dove and one hawk. The two more important dovish statements were:
1. There is no necessary connection between the easing of financial conditions and inflation.
2. Unexpected market weakness will promote the possibility of interest rate cuts

Overall, Powell's speech was quite satisfactory, and the market also interpreted it as neutral. The probability of keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged in June is still around 90%, and there is no obvious improvement expectation for the external environment.

ETFs experienced significant outflows yesterday. Not only GBTC, but also 10 ETFs except Hashdex were in outflow status, with a total outflow of 9,733 BTC, approximately US$560 million. The average cost of ETF investors is above 60,000. This wave of selling is a panicked hold-up. The market needs to fully absorb these bloody chips before it can continue to rise.

In terms of market conditions, Bitcoin fell below the 6w support and went directly to the 56,000 support level where MA120 is located. This is a very critical support area and the lifeline of the bull market. If it falls below, it will cause further market panic. The large level is still a bull market relay form, but after falling below 6w, a top structure appears. This will take some time to resolve, and the upward trend can be resumed only after a thorough consolidation is completed.The alt market has shown resilience, which is related to the previous rapid decline that cleared the leverage of the alt market.
Patience
[Smile][Smile][Smile]

Figure 1, ETF fund flow
Figure 2, Bull market progress

In terms of macroeconomics, the US dollar index is still fluctuating at a high level, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are still rebounding from oversold levels. The trend of US stocks this week is more important. Generally speaking, the small adjustment cycle of US and Chinese stocks in the bull market cycle is one month, and the large cycle is one quarter. If the US stock market can recover its trend and set a new high next week, it is possible to resume the upward trend and complete a month of adjustment. However, if the US stock market fails to rebound in the future and moves in the adjustment stage again, then the future market may move in a large cycle adjustment, which will greatly affect the trend of Bitcoin. The two important events on Thursday and Friday still have the greatest impact on the market in the short term: the announcement of interest rate decisions and non-agricultural employment data, and the market may fluctuate.
Regarding ETFs, as of April 29, a total of 534,700 BTC have flowed into Bitcoin spot ETFs, and Grayscale GBTC currently still holds 296,724 BTC. The total holdings of Bitcoin spot ETF products are 831,424 BTC, equivalent to approximately US$52.3 billion. Yesterday, ETFs had a net outflow of 823 BTC, and the market funding situation has not improved. The short-term nodes are the interest rate decisions and non-agricultural employment data on Thursday and Friday.
Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs began trading in Hong Kong, with the names and codes: Huaxia Bitcoin (03042.HK), Harvest Bitcoin (03439.HK), and Boshi Bitcoin (03008.HK). The current scale of the first issuance of IOP is: Huaxia Bitcoin ETF 950 million Hong Kong dollars; Huaxia Ethereum ETF 160 million Hong Kong dollars. The main major customers of Harvest and Boshi did not subscribe in the IOP stage, and there may be more funds entering later. As of noon closing, the total transaction volume of Hong Kong Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF products reached 49.45 million Hong Kong dollars.
MicroStrategy increased its holdings of 25,250 bitcoins in the first quarter of this year, and currently holds a total of 214,400 bitcoins.
Eigenlayer airdrop is scheduled to go online on May 10, the largest gross this year, but the rules given by the project party are very pitfalls and have many restrictions. The most unfriendly thing is the review and restriction of VPN addresses. I tried it this morning and the claim interface was identified by a wall and I couldn’t log in. So even if there is an airdrop, as long as the real IP is in China, future claims may be a problem. This is not the most serious thing. The most serious thing is that if the project party identifies that the IP address of the pledge address is an "illegal country" address, it may be witched. If this happens, it will be a big pit, and such a big hair will be missed directly.Affected by the Eigenlayer airdrop rules, the price of PENDLE fell.
On the chain, let's check the progress of the bull market. This round of bull market is the black line.
The supply of long-term holders has dropped rapidly in this round of rise, including the reduction of Grayscale GBTC holdings. The trend of LTH in the future is worth paying attention to, because the end of the bull market in history is accompanied by a rapid decrease in LTH supply and a rapid increase in STH supply. The behavior of LTH will largely determine the market trend.
The realized loss age band shows that every rapid decline in the high-level oscillation platform is accompanied by an expansion of realized losses. The latest decline has not shown this sign, so what is the trend in the future?
The price of ETH is basically the same as it was three years ago, but the number of whales entering the market has increased by 3 times, the chips are more concentrated, and the chip structure is much better than before.
In terms of the market, Bitcoin closed well yesterday. On the basis of the long-short game, a certain market demand was seen. But what we want to see most is not the game, but the shortage. The shortage of supply will eventually lead to an increase in the price of the currency. At present, the structure is still a high-level oscillation structure, and the large range structure is still between 60,000-74,000. The small-level pressure is at 67,000. If the price of the currency can stand above 67,000, it can turn into a long market, which is a relatively critical point. In terms of trend, continue to hold positions patiently. There is no obvious sign of change in the external environment, and the short-term cold winter is not over yet.
ETH linkage trend
In terms of cottages, the market is still sluggish. The strongest PENDLE has begun to loosen its price due to the impact of Eigenlayer's airdrop that is not as expected. The recent Ethereum re-staking track can be said to be full of thorns. There is no strong sector. Most cottages have a trend of starting to explore the second bottom. After this bottom is explored in the future market, it is possible to start a new rising stage.
Fear index 67