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This Pattern Repeats With New Projects - How To Find The Perfect Entry Point?
Knowing this feature, you'll be able to find the perfect buying zones! Here are Top-5 examples of new projects that have come out recently and this pattern has worked:
An important note: Everything written here is purely my observation based on my experience and analysis of price behavior. Never follow other people's advice blindly, always do your own research. So now, I'll try to convey to you my view of the charts, let's get started! The first coin on my list - $APT
Firstly, it's the chart - the coin has dropped by 90% from its ATH.
A corridor has been formed where volumes are increasing now.
It is a bullish factor and there are divergences on the daily chart.
Secondly, XAI is a project from the Arbitrum team.
Thirdly, XAI at one time also poured well to those who held their node - their validators directly got a dozen Xs, and probably they were the ones who shed the price.
Now, spot-buying looks very attractive from the point of view of both technical analysis and fundamental analysis.
The project is being built by an experienced team with already existing experience.
You can see how the price has reached the 0.0006 zone, which is equivalent to a -60% decline from the initial values.
This is the area where I am buying this coin because of my previously described “-60% pattern”.
It is also worth noticing the lower downtrend line, which the price has touched.
Of course, there are no signs of trend reversal yet, but here it makes sense to pick up a coin for medium or long term.
I believe we are at or near the bottom, now I would like to see a rise.
But not immediately, consolidation in this range is possible, most likely the big players will pick up within these values, stuffing their bags before rising.
As you might know, the “double bottom” pattern is often formed before the trend change and price reversal.
The potential of this pattern is equal to the first part of it — with the orange arrows I've highlighted the approximate area.
The ultimate target of this potential is located at the approximate mark of $40, approximately there will be local resistance, so this zone will be the target zone.
I now consider the trend to have changed to an uptrend definitively.
You can see how the price has reached the 0.0006 zone, which is equivalent to a -60% decline from the initial values.
This is the area where I am buying this coin because of my previously described “-60% pattern”.
It is also worth noticing the lower downtrend line, which the price has touched.
Of course, there are no signs of trend reversal yet, but here it makes sense to pick up a coin for medium or long term.
I believe we are at or near the bottom, now I would like to see a rise.
But not immediately, consolidation in this range is possible, most likely the big players will pick up within these values, stuffing their bags before rising.
One of the best coins of the past bull market in 2021, is falling for the third year.
After a slight rise earlier this year, the price formed a "Head and Shoulders" technical analysis pattern.
As a result, the potential of this formation was realized and now the price has reached the global support level.
I am looking at spot-buying, starting from the current values and up to the level of 3.50-4.00$.
I consider this area attractive because:
— Strong support level; — High risk to potential profit ratio; — The sentiment (fear) of many traders and investors about buying this coin.
In my opinion, the price may stab at the highlighted zone to gather liquidity below for more panic, after which it may turn around and go up, at least to the previous local high, to the “head” area.
DOT looks very weak indeed, that's why I'm using this opportunity for a position set.
$AAVE is strong in spite of the rest of the market.
This coin was quickly repurchased during yesterday's drop and I continue to keep it in my portfolio.
In the long term, I am counting on super profits as I believe its potential is much higher.
Looking at the project metrics from an analytical perspective, TVL and Revenue continue to grow. So given the expected Ethereum growth, I can't stay on the sidelines.
Therefore, past analysis and goals are relevant. For clarification, this is a logarithmic chart.
The chart shows the “Head and Shoulders” pattern formation, which usually indicates a trend reversal. In our case, the downtrend is confirmed by the neckline breakdown by the price level.
The downside potential is usually equal to the “head” of the figure.
The first target will be the zone at $3.94 - 0.5 Fibonacci value.
This road will be opened after the neckline retest and the subsequent successful breakdown of level 0.382.
The second downside target is the zone at $3.30 - here the downside potential ends, according to the “Head and Shoulders” pattern, and also, the strong value of 0.618 Fibonacci golden ratio is located in this area.
Usually, there is a rebound from it, or the price just corrects to this level and continues the global upward movement.
The third potential target could be the zone at $2.80 - there is a strong support level (red rectangular zone), which is not easy to pass.
But this outcome, I believe, is unlikely.
Further buying can be considered based on the first two major ranges.
FTX promises to start repaying its creditors in the 4th quarter of this year -the total amount will be $16 billion!
Do you realize where all this new liquidity is going to flow?
This is a very large amount of money by the standards of the whole sector, people will probably put this money into altcoins or bitcoin, because they will want to keep their funds or multiply them at all.
This could trigger that bull run at the end of the year, so I think this is positive news.
$5 average POL price during the 10-year period - it looks like this model is planned by the developers in the long term.
I found this confirmation in one of Polygon's documentation!
Since all the coins are already in circulation I assume big capital is already ready for the upcoming bull run.
On top of that, you just look at the current chart on the right.
Even here in terms of technical analysis, this pattern is confirmed and we could indeed see explosive growth soon.
This is not financial advice, these are my thoughts.
I'm just comparing a number of factors that corroborate each other so that is why I'm bullish.
The network developers are focused on the long-term development of the entire blockchain, so it makes sense for me as a simple retail investor to hold a native blockchain coin on the spot.
Here's what you need to know about it in simple words: 👇
Plan for today: Main idea Team Investments and partnerships Figures and tokenomics How does Polygon work? Polygon 2.0 concept What is the POL token for? The ecosystem growth model TA Let's dive in:
~ Main idea ~
Polygon solves Ethereum's scalability problem by providing tools that enable scalable and fast DApps due to cheap transaction fees. It also provides ease of interoperability between different blockchains.
~ Team ~
The team is big and with a lot of experience:
Marc Boiron - CEO Sandeep Nailwal - co-founder Jaynti Kanani - co-founder David Z - CTO, co-founder Jordi Baylina - co-founder Antoni Martin - co-founder Brendan Farmer - co-founder Daniel Lubarov - co-founder Bobbin Threadbare - co-founder Anurag Arjun - co-founder
And also other board and marketing members.
~ Investments and partnerships ~
Polygon has raised a total of $451M in funding over 9 rounds. Famous names among the partners include Coinbase Ventures, The Spartan Group, DragonFly Capital, Galaxy, Republic, Animoca Brands, Union Square Ventures, etc.
~ Figures and tokenomics ~
Top-15 rank on CoinMarketCapThe price on 22/01/2024 is $0,75Circulating supply: 9,62b $MATICTotal supply: 10b $MATICMarket cap: $7,2b
As for the token distribution, we can see that almost all tokens are in circulation on the market. Over the last 4 years, most of the tokens have been issued. More details on the infographic:
At the moment almost all tokens are centered on one address, I guess this is due to the upcoming migration that we'll talk about later. This is the conditional address of the main network, but in general, the top 10 addresses hold about 2-4% of the total issue.
In simple words, $MATIC is used to:
Paying transaction feesParticipating in stakingVoting for protocol managementRewarding network support in the Polygon ecosystem
~ How does Polygon work ~
It works on the principle of layer-2 scaling solution. In other words, improves Ethereum's scalability with sidechains and reduces the gas fees associated with the original blockchain, the PoS model is used. To make it even clearer, I would say that multiple transfers are grouped into a single transaction outside the main chain and sent to the main chain. This means that blocks are formed through bridges and sent to the main network in their entirety.
~ Polygon 2.0 concept ~
Polygon 2.0 - a ZK-based L2 chain network, is a set of updates that aim to improve the Polygon ecosystem. The update is designed to transition to greater community governance of the protocol and treasury.
~ What is the $POL token for? ~
It is proposed to switch from the $MATIC token to the $POL As stated in the technical documentation, it'll be a next-generation token able to accommodate an ecosystem of ZK-based Layer 2 chains.
It's also worth noting that if you're a simple ordinary MATIC token holder, you don't have to do anything when migrating the token to $POL. It converts 1:1 over time. There will be a total of 10 billion tokens.
~ The ecosystem growth model ~
Digging through the documentation, I managed to see a vision of the project growth model by the development team. The inflow to the Community Treasury of about $50-100 million per year is realistic to expect.
A 10-year growth scenario is also present, depending on chain adaptations:
Most interestingly, we as retail investors in the project are wondering about the price of the ecosystem token itself. I found this paragraph regarding the $POL price vision: $5 average price per 1 $POL.
Also, it should be emphasized the low cost of fees and a 50% reduction in running costs per validator in 3 years. This model looks quite realistic in the near future. Taking into account all the upcoming updates and improvements we can draw the following conclusion: Roughly speaking, the token price is currently undervalued by 5 times. With the upcoming trend on L2 solutions, it would be foolish to overlook this.
~ TA ~
A well-known popular pattern emerges. Taking into account the previous findings and technical analysis, I assume a move upward to $3. I'm looking at the chart from a long-term perspective.
That was my sixth episode. It's my mission to provide specific info on Web3 projects to expand this space. I'm doing it because, at the beginning of my journey, I would have been happy to find all the info in one pile. In this work, I tried to close the maximum questions that may have arisen when getting acquainted with Polygon.
Every 3 years we see growth and in the 4th year, we see a correction.
This has happened every cycle and may happen again so let me share my observations with you:
First, if you open the Bitcoin chart on a yearly timeframe, you can see a certain pattern.
Three green candles followed by one red candle.
This leads me to believe we may see a green candle this year and next year.
Of course, I can't say this for sure, as this is the market and we are constantly working with probabilities and trying to look for different patterns to predict the future chart.
But if you compare this chart, all that macro data, and the sentiment of big investors and retailers over the next couple of years, you can conclude that the outcome of this scenario is the most believable.
Okay, we assume that the fourth candle is corrective, so we can expect a continuation of the bull market in 2024 and 2025.
Based on this logic, 2026 should be a bearish year for Bitcoin.
I suggest we come back here in a few years to discuss the results of the current cycle.
$DOGS has been trading for 72 hours and here's what we can say:
First of all, the price held up and did not experience strong selling pressure. Even the negative news with Telegram's CEO didn't affect the token's successful launch into the market.
We saw a 30% increase on the second day after release and the price continues to hold above the first day.
What do I expect now?
I have a theory that Notcoin was the first test project before the main project was launched. As a result, $NOT successfully launched a new narrative and now it's time for the main project - DOGS.
Why, you may ask?
Because it is DOGS that will be applicable to sticker trading in Telegram, which is essentially the innovation that Pavel Durov once talked about.
I know it sounds fantastic, but what if that's how it was intended?
In any case, that's what we're seeing now - a huge focus on the TON ecosystem, the emergence of new memecoins, and even network latency.
But what about the chart?
I still expect a larger price drop like we had with Notcoin. While retail traders will sell their free coins, the big players will collect them like a vacuum cleaner at a discount.
Maybe here we can see my “-60% pattern” working out, too.
But as long as we see a smooth chart formation, it's too early to talk about prediction.
I can say for sure that in the future the price will be much higher than the current level, if we see a successful launch of a new hybrid NFT marketplace with stickers.
Pavel Durov was detained in France at Paris airport!
$TON reacted with a sharp drop because of this news.
It also serves as unfavorable news ahead of the expected DOGS listing. However, people are in a panic yet don't know what will happen next so we are seeing red candles.
The whole TON ecosystem is going through a bad time right now, hopefully things will resolve well.