📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈

Market is on pause till New Year. Since last update $BTC dropped back to developing Year VAH2. The target for the bounce I've mentioned before stays untouched and therefore valid - once the bounce happen it should try to revisit developing quarter VAH and maybe pre-Christmas close at 98627.

⏳Only 1.5 days till New Year. If you compare it to 1H candle, we are living last ~15 seconds of this candle. 2024 forms a very bullish Year candle. This means that next year a new ATH is guaranteed. How far #Bitcoin will grow in 2025 we can only speculate. Most probably in between 122-170k

At the same time December candle forms bearish shooting start. This may lead to next few months to be choppy while price pulls back a little. Most obvious target for that down move is CME gap at 77-80k which might take price a bit lower to 74k. Will it drop that low or not, hard to say. But some bearish move should take place, before BTC continue higher. If it won't happen, that gap will be left for further future correction move in 2026.

Nearest liquidity pools:
above - 94551 / 95052 / 95986 / 97346
below - 92687 / 92257 / 91756 / 90107


Lines on the chart:
🔸99660 - November high
🔸97736 - developing Q VAH
🔸96475 - November close
🔸93350 - developing Year VAH2
🔸92272 - week low
🔸90200 - next dump low
🔸77200-80260 - CME Futures gap

Seems like #Ethereum decided to take a dip. Posted short setup in TG yesterday - today $ETH wicked into entry zone and now forming a bearish engulfing 4H candle. Same close will push price to my forecast target zone around 2700-2800.


At least we should count on 3266 stops to be wiped out on the following candles. After that maybe some relief for a weekend. But looking at stock indices makes me think that bullish scenario is unlikely. Stocks opened today with a dump.

$GMT bouncing from November close. Still very early to confirm reversal from downtrend. Year candle is pretty bearish. So be careful with FOMO on this pump. 4.5 days till Year close and we will surely see GMT back to at least 0.14 next year (which can be a good entry)

📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈

Nearest target for $BTC bounce is developing quarter VAH and maybe pre-Christmas close at 98627. The rest is really unpredictable. Can breakout higher, can drop down to dev Y VAH2 and start dumping.

Only 4.5 days till New Year - look at this as a final stage of Year candle formation - trading now is like trading within last 44 seconds of 1H candle. Would you count that next 1H candle will never go below previous 1h close? Sure no. So wherever Year candle close, next year price will go both down and up, before it choose the way.

What I am saying is that no sense in FOMO now. Next year will surely give opportunities for new spot entries. Same for FEAR - #Bitcoin closing Year bullish, so in any case there will be new ATH next year.


Nearest liquidity pools:
above - 96631 / 97275 / 98300 / 99494
below - 94630 / 93760 / 92250 / 91400

📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈

Wow, look, Santa is doing bungee jump from developing quarter VAH - 95.2k is my yesterday's forecasted target. From lower timeframes $BTC generated enough volume for short term bounce back to previous level I've marked at 96.5k and eventually to the lost dynamic SR at Q VAH.

What next? Seems that this month last 6 days won't move far from current price zone. Developing Year candle very bullish, so all bulls have to do is to keep it more or less same till January 1st. Then price can dump to 77-80k creating buy tail for 2025 Year candle. And then #Bitcoin pump to new ATH somewhere within second quarter of next year.


Nearest liquidity pools:
above - 96538 / 97634 / 99404 / 100080
below - 94770 / 94126 / 93052 / 92301

📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈

$BTC accomplished the move I forecasted - re-test dev Q VAH and 99k ✅

Now it moves in between Daily 20sma and dev Q VAH, and while it is Christmas I don't really expect nothing fateful from it. Its the same old weekend price action that can't be taken into account.

But if we take it into account... two scenarios - lose of dev Q VAH will pull it back to 96.5k and then ~95.2k (developing 4H candle look like it gonna do it today). Second scenario - BTC stays within same zone and next working day try to breakout higher to 101k and maybe 103k.

MERRY CHRISTMAS!!! 🥳🎄🎄🎄

Nearest liquidity pools:
above - 99531 / 100050 / 100652 / 102032
below - 97117 / 96082 / 95133 / 94100


Lines on #Bitcoin chart:
🔸101200 - last week close
🔸99660 - November high
🔸97391 - developing Q VAH
🔸96475 - November close
🔸92272 - dump low
🔸92778 - developing Year VAH2
🔸77200-80260 - CME Futures gap

After the dump #Ethereum bounced back to developing Year VAH (~3560) and then back to the bottom level of zone I've marked out before the dump (~3200). That was the moment I found it possible to enter long.


I believe now $ETH is targeting same 3560 zone and higher to developing Daily 20sma. This is neutral target zone. Not bearish, not bullish. Everything will be decided after it is reached. And after major market makers return back from Christmas holidays.

Are you still holding our long?

📉 #Bitcoin Daily 📈

My yesterday's short term expectations for $BTC to re-test dev Q VAH haven't yet been fulfilled, so I'll stick to it. Second zone for the same scenario is around 99-100k.

What I don't like is that with all that volume gained on the dump BTC haven't really bounced yet. Slowly dropped back to the same dump level and no volume here. So one whale fart and it all that card house will collapse into liquidity pool under 90200, stretching towards ~87k OB.

Nearest liquidity pools:
above - 94851 / 95643 / 96040 / 96990
below - 93030 / 92397 / 91600 / 91050


Lines on the chart:
🔸101200 - last week close
🔸99660 - November high
🔸97233 - developing Q VAH
🔸96475 - November close
🔸92272 - dump low
🔸92550 - developing Year VAH2
🔸77200-80260 - CME Futures gap

Binance Coin has the most stable price in crypto. Over 45 months (~3.8 years) consolidation range! Week chart on this collage represent 9.5+ months of consolidation within that bigger range.

I think that the moment $BNB actually breaks out, it will melt faces.


P.S. Range remains valid until broken. Therefore while BNB is within the range it has chances to come back to week bottom at ~440 and after that to Month bottom at ~200. With that said I still has to admit my bias is bullish.

$ADA pumped a lot in November and so far December only slowed down that momentum leaving all options open for January. Even with a dip in the beginning of the month it leaves itself chances to pump higher. That will surely be #Cardano roadmap for 2025.


But before that possible dips to ~0.68 and if longer correction take place may see it at ~0.49 as well. But first zone is for very bullish continuation.

📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈

Short term I expect $BTC to re-test dev Q VAH and if manage to find acceptance above, will be able to continue towards 100-101k. If that move fails, then another dip to ~93k. Won't try to guess any further as market is still very uncertain and a lot depends on how stock indices will continue previous bearish week. It will be hard for crypto to return back to same bullishness if other markets will keep dumping.

Nearest liquidity pools:
above - 96775 / 98186 / 99670 / 100600
below - 94581 / 93600 / 92275 / 91350


Lines on the chart:
🔸101200 - last week close
🔸99660 - November high
🔸97138 - developing Q VAH
🔸96475 - November close
🔸92272 - dump low
🔸92386 - developing Year VAH2
🔸77200-80260 - CME Futures gap

#bitcoin #btc

I think there is a good chance for ETH to dip and then bounce in the beginning of the next week. Gonna trade that move. This is my long setup. If bounce happen without the dip, setup is canceled.

🛒 Taking ETH Long under 3255 (DCA or alternative entry at 3150)

💩 SL on two 4H candles close below 3100 (-4.77% - invest 21% per 1% capital risk)

Risk Reward levels:
R1 - 3410 (SL to BE)
R2 - 3565
R3 - 3720
R4 - 3876

Targets:
🎯 TP1 3666
🎯 TP2 3790
🎯 TP3 3860
🎯 Open targets

📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈

Main ideas to remember.

Long term $BTC is bullish and I have no doubts in my Halving Cycles chart with top projection for Q4 2025

Mid term weekly chart shows slow in momentum which may lead to two equally possible scenarios:
1) Side range for bullish consolidation 90-105k
2) Range with flash dip to CME gap at 77k and then bounce back up

P.S. I don't think that in case of range consolidation we will see same long period as was previous for 8 months. No. It will take less time. Still it can be several months.

Nearest liquidity pools:
above - 99615 / 100823 / 101534 / 103380
below - 97662 / 96640 / 95060 / 94408


Lines on #Bitcoin chart:
🔸101200 - last week close
🔸99660 - November high
🔸96760 - developing Q VAH
🔸96475 - November close
🔸91958 - developing Year VAH2
🔸77200-80260 - CME Futures gap

Friday BTC dominance closed with bearish candle (long sell tail and downclose body). This should bring that bearish momentum to weekend and maybe beginning of the next day.

On other hand now it landed back to week 20sma, so that can be bullish re-test move for BTC.D - lets stay cautious. Its a strong level and short term bounce highly possible. Same as re-test of that sell tail within nearest week (even if it will dump after).

Yesterday there was still a chance for "green scenario", but today closed all questions. BTC dominance have chosen violence and blood. Next stop ~60.25% and pray to crypto gods it will stop there. That will give a chance for another altseason. But if grow above 61.5% alts market will be destroyed.

📉 #Bitcoin Daily 📈

I followed the trend and therefore counted on more bullish response from the market, but last 2 days (+ how it looks today) force me to admit, that $BTC have finished with that swing up and now preparing for correction within high TF uptrend.

"What? Wasn't these 2 days dump a correction?" - you may ask. And the answer is - no. There is a CME gap at 77k and breakout level at 74k, so there is much more space for pullback. But even if #BTC gets there, it will still remain within monthly uptrend, so that PA won't break Bitcoin cycles idea of top in Q4 2025.

The only thing not clear is how long that correction will take. Usually dumps happen fast, so 82-85k can be reached within one week time. Short term I expect everything to bounce soon, as at lower timeframes BTC made 4 waves down. That most probably covers weekend. But next week can be very bloody again.


Nearest liquidity pools:
above - 98523 / 99494 / 100563 / 101534
below - 94540 / 93091 / 90150 / 88666

On that dip #Ethereum touched developing year VWAP VAH and now above Q VAH. ETHBTC still keep chances for reversal from grand downtrend on week timeframe (although can drop 4-5% more). And as I described on Tuesday, this can become the bottom of wide consolidation range.

So I think in general situation doesn't look that bad. Open question is if BTC done or do another drop by ~5% to ~96.5k which will lead to $ETH drop by 8-13% from CMP at least. Talking about 3200-3360 target zone.


Meanwhile sure target for a bounce is 3800. Will be there before or after the drop. Doesn't matter. Level will remain a magnet for price.

$AVAX has such a clear trendline, that was already tested 4 times, that I have no doubts it will be crossed down. Next zone worth watching is around ~36-38


⏰ Setting alarm for 38 cross to watch it there

📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈

$BTC followed bearish momentum and dipped lower to Day 20sma ✅ But it wasn't crypto alone - stocks and gold also crashed. Everything moved together.

Before zooming in lets review higher TF. Month still bullish, while week chart slow down in momentum after growing by 62% from the beginning of November. So if #Bitcoin close this week same way, high chances to see some kind of correction within nearest 2 months. Can be a sharp move down, can be a slow pulling back with lower TF dips and pumps, till it shake every retailer out and resume higher timeframe uptrend.

Short term: two levels I'd like to mark out. The first one is SR around 103k which previously stopped the dump, but failed to do so on the second approach. Now it acts as resistance. Another level is Tuesday low - on day chart #BTC formed a FVG up to that price, so logical to assume it will try to cover at least half of it on the bounce. It also correlates with developing Year VAH3, so that will be bearish re-test (if gets there).


Nearest liquidity pools:
above - 102585 / 103342 / 104100 / 104855
below - 100694 / 100032 / 99275 / 98518