Market anomaly: Since BTC entered this large range and maintained fluctuations three months ago, the highest number of consecutive negative lines on the daily line has always remained at 3 K lines. In other words, if you go long as you see three consecutive daily negative lines, and close the position after the fourth day's daily line closes, then the winning rate of going long is 100%;
On the daily line that just closed, we saw four consecutive negative lines for the first time since March...
Although this analysis logic is not very rigorous, if we judge the continuity of market demand and supply based on the number of consecutive negative lines on the daily line, then we can at least confirm that there is indeed a certain degree of continuous supply in the current market, but it is not that strong.
At the same time, although the supply at the daily level is intermittent, and there are constant up and down pin-shaped shock washes, if you change the time period, you can clearly see the continuous release of supply;
This is the 4D line of BTC. It can be clearly seen that the continuous supply in the entire oscillation range has actually appeared since April 20;
If you still remember, the collective plunge of altcoins after mid-April seemed to be related to the continuous supply of BTC.
In my opinion, this is all a manifestation of an overall weakening of liquidity;
Since BTC is at the top of the cryptocurrency liquidity chain, during this process, it is mainly a shock callback, while altcoins are breaking through one after another. Imagine the whole process is like this:
This is the liquidity distribution structure of the cryptocurrency circle. When new liquidity enters the market, BTC will be the first to be filled, and then it will be slowly distributed to other altcoins.
And when the new liquidity dries up, BTC will be the last to feel hungry, as the liquidity of other altcoins will have been drained long ago.
The key to this structure is not its pyramid structure, but the BTC at the top, which has a very large capacity, larger than the sum of all the cups below...
Therefore, before seeing a significant increase in BTC prices, the liquidity of altcoins will be in a long-term downturn, but there are also benefits. Even if BTC liquidity problems arise in the future and prices plummet, the negative price impact on the altcoins below will be greatly reduced.
Therefore, understanding the distribution structure of the liquidity in the cryptocurrency market during this bull market is a prerequisite for speculating in altcoins.
